Why is Asia's largest Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet not buying the dip?

Author: Zhou, ChainCatcher

As the cryptocurrency market enters a correction window, the actions of Bitcoin treasury companies have shown a clear divergence. The giant Strategy announced last week that it spent $962.7 million to increase its holdings by 10,624 Bitcoins at a price of $90,615. In contrast, the fourth-largest Bitcoin treasury company, Metaplanet, has come to a halt, having not made any additional purchases for the tenth consecutive week since September 30.

Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company hailed by the market as the "Asian version of MicroStrategy," was once an aggressive representative in the DAT field. Since launching its reserve plan in April 2024, the company has rapidly accumulated over 30,000 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $2.75 billion.

However, since the fourth quarter, Bitcoin prices have corrected nearly 30% from their historical high of $126,000. While the market generally expected treasury companies to buy on the dip, Metaplanet unexpectedly pressed the pause button after completing its last purchase on September 29, shifting its short-term capital focus to stock buybacks.

DAT Shifts from Aggressive Accumulation to Risk Control Priority

Data shows that the total market capitalization of digital asset treasury stocks in the fourth quarter has drastically shrunk from $150 billion to $73.5 billion, with most companies' mNAV falling below 1. According to Bloomberg, crypto asset treasury (DAT) companies listed in the U.S. and Canada have seen their stock prices plummet this year, with a median decline of 43%, and some companies experiencing declines of over 99%.

Galaxy has warned that Bitcoin treasury companies are entering a "Darwinian phase," with stock premiums collapsing, leverage turning downward, and DAT stocks trading at discounts, as the core mechanisms of their once-thriving business models are crumbling.

In this market context, ETHZilla, another second-tier treasury company, recently announced that it would redeem a total of $516 million in convertible bonds early. This move is seen as a positive signal to simplify capital structure, enhance financial flexibility, and reduce the risk of high-interest liabilities during market downturns.

Metaplanet's actions resonate with this. Currently, the company's outstanding debt is $304 million, theoretically backed by nine times its Bitcoin assets as repayment security, yet the company still chose to pause its accumulation, aligning with the industry trend of shifting from aggressive accumulation to risk control priority in the current DAT landscape.

Stock Price Pressure and Tactical Adjustments Under Conservative Accounting

Previously, influenced by its Bitcoin holding strategy, Metaplanet's stock price soared from $20 in April 2024 to a peak of $1,930 in June 2025. Although the stock price has significantly retraced over 70% since the second half of the year, it still recorded an overall increase of over 20% this year, with the current stock price stabilizing around $420 and a total market capitalization of approximately $3 billion.

In response to the continuous decline in stock price, Metaplanet's CEO Simon Gerovich publicly addressed the stock price fluctuations on October 2, citing Amazon's case during the internet bubble, emphasizing that fundamentals and stock prices often diverge, and reaffirming that the company will continue to accumulate Bitcoin.

Earlier, he stated in September that if the net asset value falls below the market value (mNAV below 1), continuing to issue new shares would "mathematically destroy value," which would be detrimental to the company's BTC yield. The company would prioritize evaluating preferred shares and stock buyback options.

Therefore, when facing a net asset value drop in early October, Metaplanet quickly took action, first announcing the authorization to buy back up to 150 million shares and securing a $500 million credit line. Subsequently, it raised $100 million by mortgaging its Bitcoin assets to purchase more Bitcoin and expand revenue operations and buy back shares, with some funds also allocated for revenue-generating activities. Currently, the company's mNAV has rebounded to over 1.

Thus, the decision to pause accumulation is a tactical protection of its stock price and balance sheet health, prioritizing the value of existing shareholders rather than blindly expanding the balance sheet.

Additionally, halting purchases is also a measure to avoid risks posed by Japan's conservative accounting standards. Given that its average Bitcoin cost is approximately $108,000, the company has accumulated over $500 million in unrealized losses on its books. To prevent excessive short-term impacts on the profit and loss statement, it chose to proactively avoid exacerbating this book impairment risk.

Leveraging Low-Interest Rate Advantages to Build an Asian "Moat"?

On the surface, pausing accumulation appears defensive; in reality, Metaplanet's true strategic intent may lie in upgrading and innovating its capital structure.

The company's third-quarter financial report shows that its sales reached 2.401 billion yen, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 94%; operating profit was 1.339 billion yen, up 64%; net profit was 12.7 billion yen; and net assets were 532.9 billion yen, a growth of 165%. Among these, the options business contributed $16.28 million in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 115%, which can cover daily operations and interest costs.

On this basis, Metaplanet is also attempting to emulate Strategy by planning to issue preferred shares similar to STRC to acquire capital more efficiently.

The company plans to launch two new digital credit instruments, "Mercury" and "Mars," with "Mercury" offering a 4.9% yen yield, about ten times the yield on Japanese bank deposits, with 73% of the funds designated for Bitcoin accumulation, including $107 million for direct purchases and $12 million for options trading. This way, the company can bypass equity dilution and shift towards low-cost debt leverage, which is highly attractive to local investors.

Moreover, since Japan does not allow market sales mechanisms (similar to BitMine's current ATM model), preventing listed companies from "real-time dumping" stocks in the secondary market protects investors from dilution shocks. Metaplanet has cleverly circumvented this restriction by adopting a mobile exercise warrant mechanism (MSW), while retaining the core advantage of flexible fundraising.

MSW is essentially a special stock acquisition warrant, characterized by a non-fixed exercise price that is dynamically adjusted periodically. Typically, every few trading days (Metaplanet's early series was every three trading days), the exercise price is reset to the average closing price of the previous few days, such as the simple moving average of the last three days. Thus, when warrant holders choose to exercise the warrants, the company issues new common stock at a price close to the current market price to raise funds.

In the future, the company may integrate this mechanism into the perpetual preferred stock product Mercury: preferred stockholders can convert to common stock at a dynamic price through terms similar to MSW, making the entire financing process smoother and more controllable.

At the same time, MicroStrategy's Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has confirmed that the company will not launch similar products in Japan within the next 12 months, providing Metaplanet with a valuable 12-month first-mover advantage in the market.

The company successfully issued $150 million in Class B perpetual preferred stock on November 20, and its financing strategy has begun to take shape. This series of actions indicates that Metaplanet is leveraging Japan's low-interest rate environment to build a unique financing "moat" for structural and sustainable expansion.

Local Advantages and MSCI Review

In fact, Metaplanet's core value lies in the unique Alpha provided by its Japanese ecological environment:

On one hand, the continuous depreciation of the yen strengthens Bitcoin's role as an inflation-hedging asset, with Metaplanet's Bitcoin reserves providing a viable way for local Japanese investors to combat the decline in yen purchasing power.

On the other hand, the tax-exempt advantage of Japan's individual savings accounts (NISA) has attracted 63,000 local Japanese shareholders to Metaplanet. Compared to the 55% capital gains tax on directly holding crypto assets, investors can indirectly gain BTC exposure at a lower cost by buying Metaplanet stock through NISA.

For this reason, Metaplanet has gained recognition from international institutions, with Capital Group increasing its stake to 11.45%, becoming Metaplanet's largest shareholder. The top five shareholders also include MMXX Capital, Vanguard, Evolution Capital, and Invesco; Richard Byworth, a partner at Syz Capital, publicly withdrew investments from MicroStrategy and Bitcoin ETFs to invest in Metaplanet, believing that the latter has lower financing costs and higher return elasticity.

An industry observer pointed out that companies like Metaplanet must prioritize financial resilience during downturns to maintain long-term accumulation goals.

However, despite being beneficial for structural health in the long run, Metaplanet still faces potential short-term selling pressure. For instance, the MSCI index exclusion review affecting Strategy also impacted Metaplanet, which was included in the MSCI Japan Index this February. If excluded due to a high proportion of Bitcoin assets, it could trigger a wave of passive fund selling.

Conclusion

In summary, Metaplanet's pause in Bitcoin accumulation is not a failure of strategy or a capitulation to the market; it can be viewed as a strategic buildup based on risk and efficiency considerations, marking the maturation of the DAT sector from aggressive accumulation to risk control priority.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has stated that evaluating DAT companies based on mNAV is incorrect, as this valuation method does not consider the lifecycle of listed companies. Most of the reasons for DAT trading at discounts are certain, while the reasons for premiums are often uncertain. Looking ahead, the price differences among treasury companies will become more pronounced, and Metaplanet may be in the process of reconstructing its valuation system.

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