Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump Ends Government Shutdown; Software Stocks Hit by AI Tools; Nvidia Plans Huge Investment in OpenAI (February 4, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Divergence in Officials' Views Highlights Differentiated Rate Cut Expectations

• Governor Milan expects a rate cut of over 100 basis points for the year, pointing out the lack of strong price pressures in the economy, with the current interest rate level being primarily due to the peculiarities of inflation statistics.
• Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasizes that the core of policy is to bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target, noting that last year's rate cuts have supported the labor market, and consumer resistance to price increases helps curb inflationary pressures.
• Market Impact: This divergence may exacerbate investor uncertainty regarding the monetary policy path, potentially supporting bond demand in the short term. However, if easing expectations strengthen, it will further weaken the dollar and boost risk assets.

International Commodities

Resource Stocks Strengthen Collectively, Cyclical Stocks Favored

• Market style shifts towards value and cyclical sectors, with Southern Copper rising 11.74%, Freeport-McMoRan up 6.41%, First Majestic up 8.04%, USA Rare Earth up 17.46%, and Energy Fuels up 16.56%.
• Coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, resource stocks have performed well, reflecting investors' optimistic expectations for economic resilience.
• Market Impact: This round of increases may reinforce expectations for commodity demand, pushing related futures prices to stabilize. However, if global growth slows, there will be a risk of a pullback.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump Signs Funding Bill, Resolving Partial Government Shutdown Crisis

• The U.S. House of Representatives passed a funding agreement negotiated with Democrats, which Trump signed to end part of the government shutdown. However, funding for the Department of Homeland Security will only last until February 13, and negotiations on immigration enforcement constraints continue.
• Trump revealed that negotiations with Iran are still ongoing, with Iran showing willingness to act to avoid repeating last year's military actions; meanwhile, Fed Governor Milan resigned from the White House Economic Advisory Council.
• Market Impact: This temporarily alleviates fiscal uncertainty and boosts market confidence, but if disagreements over immigration policy escalate, it could trigger a new round of volatility, affecting U.S. stocks and the dollar.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Up 1.02% to $4,994/ounce
• Spot Silver: Up 0.58% to $85.7/ounce
• WTI Crude Oil: Up 1.06% to $63.88
• Dollar Index: Up 0.06% to 97.441, driven by Fed easing expectations and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down 3.8% + continued decline, briefly hitting a low of $72,943
• ETH: Down 4.67% + increased volatility, briefly hitting a low of $2,109
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Fell to $2.65 trillion, driven by dominant sell-offs in BTC and ETH
• Market Liquidation Situation: Long positions liquidated $551 million/short positions liquidated $203 million + total amount $754 million

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 0.34% + continued oscillation and adjustment
• S&P 500: Down 0.84% + intensified style rotation
• Nasdaq: Down 1.43% + dragged down by technology and software sectors

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Nvidia: Down 2.84%
• Google-A: Down 1.16%
• Apple: Down 0.20%
• Microsoft: Down 2.87%
• Amazon: Down 1.79%
• Meta: Down 2.08%
• Tesla: Up 0.04%

Core Reason for Fluctuations: AI proxy tools have raised concerns about "job displacement," coupled with a market shift towards cyclical stocks, putting pressure on most tech giants, with only Tesla slightly rising due to resilience in the electric vehicle sector.

Sector Movement Observation

Software Sector Down 12%

• Representative Stocks: Thomson Reuters down 15.67%, London Stock Exchange Group down 12.39%
• Driving Factors: Anthropic's new legal plugin triggered fears of AI replacement, accelerating fund outflows and pushing the sector down overall.

Resource Sector Up 10%

• Representative Stocks: Southern Copper up 11.74%, Freeport-McMoRan up 6.41%
• Driving Factors: Market style shifted to value and cyclical, coupled with rising geopolitical risks, stimulating demand for resource stocks.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Nvidia - Plans to Invest $20 Billion in OpenAI

Event Overview: CEO Jensen Huang denied rumors of changes in the deal with OpenAI, emphasizing that the plan is "on track." The company intends to participate in the next round of financing, with an investment amount of $20 billion, marking its largest single investment in OpenAI; deal details have not yet been finalized, and terms may be adjusted. This move aims to deepen AI collaboration and support OpenAI's potential IPO.

Market Interpretation: Bloomberg reports that this investment highlights Nvidia's strategic layout in the AI ecosystem. Institutions believe that if the deal goes through, it will strengthen its dominant position in chips, but the uncertainty of terms may trigger short-term volatility.

Investment Insight: Strengthens Nvidia's leading advantage in the AI field, which is a long-term positive for stock prices, but attention should be paid to deal progress to avoid risks.

2. AMD - Q4 Performance Exceeds Expectations but Guidance is Tepid

Event Overview: Fourth-quarter revenue reached a record of over $10 billion, a 30% year-on-year increase, with EPS exceeding analyst expectations by 16%; data center revenue hit a new high of $5.4 billion, with MI308 chip sales in China reaching $390 million. However, U.S. export restrictions are expected to impact approximately $440 million in inventory by 2025; Q1 revenue guidance midpoint is $9.8 billion, slightly above consensus but below some optimistic expectations, leading to a decline in after-hours stock price.

Market Interpretation: Institutions recognize strong growth in data centers, expecting a 60% annual increase over the next three to five years, but the guidance lacks surprises, reflecting market concerns about intensified competition in AI chips.

Investment Insight: Core business potential is strong, suitable for long-term holding, but short-term vigilance is needed regarding the impact of export policies.

3. Novo Nordisk - Expects 13% Sales Decline in 2026

Event Overview: Q4 sales fell 7.6% year-on-year, although better than expected, but sales of the weight-loss drug Wegovy exceeded expectations; the company expects its first annual sales decline this year, with sales and operating profit projected to drop by 5%-13% in 2026, far below analysts' expected declines of 1.4% and 3.1%, due to a decline in U.S. business and global pricing pressures. U.S. stocks fell 14.6%.

Market Interpretation: Institutional analysis indicates that the guidance reflects a comparison between international growth and lower U.S. prices. Although the GLP-1 market is expanding, competition and pricing pressures are increasing.

Investment Insight: Short-term stock price pressure, but market expansion provides a buffer; attention should be paid to pricing strategy adjustments.

4. Pfizer - Q4 Non-COVID Business Grows 9%

Event Overview: Fourth-quarter revenue was $17.6 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase excluding COVID products; total revenue for the year was $62.6 billion, reaffirming guidance of $59.5-$62.5 billion for 2026; initiated about 20 key clinical trials, positioning itself in obesity through the acquisition of Metsera, with positive progress in oncology pipelines in areas like bladder cancer.

Market Interpretation: Analysts affirm the resilience of core business and diversification strategy, believing that non-COVID growth supports long-term stability, but monitoring fluctuations in COVID demand is necessary.

Investment Insight: Diversified layout enhances risk resistance, suitable for conservative investors.

5. Intel - Memory Chip Supply Tightness Until 2028

Event Overview: CEO Pat Gelsinger revealed that discussions with two major memory manufacturers confirmed that supply tightness will last at least until 2028, primarily due to surging demand for AI processors, such as Nvidia's Rubin platform; the company plans to enter the GPU market, having hired a chief architect, integrating with data center chips and foundry business.

Market Interpretation: Institutions view this as a signal of AI demand; Intel's GPU layout may capture market share, but supply bottlenecks could drive up costs.

Investment Insight: Significant AI opportunities, but competition and execution risks need to be assessed.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Trump pushes for crypto regulatory progress in Davos.

2. Standard Chartered lowers its 2026 SOL price forecast to $250 but expects it to reach $2,000 by 2030.

3. MicroStrategy hints at acquiring over $1.25 billion in BTC.

4. The character prototype from "The Big Short": Bitcoin's plunge may trigger a $1 billion sell-off in gold and silver.

5. Vitalik sold 1,441 ETH in two days, worth about $3.3 million.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• Earnings Releases: Pre-market - Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Uber; After-market - Google, Qualcomm, Arm - Focus on revenue guidance and AI-related outlook.

Bitget Research Institute Viewpoint:

U.S. stocks face de-risking pressure, liquidity withdrawal may trigger a 10% correction, and the rotation out of tech stocks exacerbates the Nasdaq's decline; precious metals are strong, with gold showing strong buy signals, supported by a weak dollar and Fed easing expectations, expected to continue rebounding; crude oil is moderately recovering, benefiting from geopolitical factors and demand resilience, but concerns about global growth slowing persist; in the forex market, the dollar is under pressure, with institutions favoring allocations in safe-haven assets like gold and silver, overall views remain cautious, emphasizing macro data and policy dynamics driving short-term volatility. (Approximately 100 words)

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and is not intended as any investment advice.