Bitget UEX Daily Report | Expectations for US-Iran talks rise; oil prices plummet by 4.6%; Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged (May 26, 2026)

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Focuses on Middle East Situation's Impact on Inflation

• The recent FOMC meeting decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, with a split vote.
• Officials have differing views on the inflation path, with some members warning that if inflation remains high, rate hikes may need to be considered.
• A de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could ease energy price pressures, indirectly supporting the Federal Reserve's goal of achieving a 2% inflation target.

This dynamic provides the market with relatively stable monetary policy expectations, but a reduction in geopolitical risks may further lower inflationary pressures, benefiting the valuation recovery of risk assets.

International Commodities Optimistic Signals from US-Iran Talks Drive Oil Prices Down

• Trump stated that negotiations are progressing well and will not sign an agreement allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons; US officials are optimistic about resolving disputes recently, and the presence of the Iranian delegation in Qatar is seen as a positive signal.
• As a result, WTI crude oil futures fell significantly, and Brent crude also dropped sharply.
• Market expectations for a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have alleviated concerns about energy supply.

The progress in talks has directly eased tensions in the energy market, negatively impacting oil prices in the short term, but details of any long-term agreement still need attention.

Macroeconomic Policy SEC Urgently Halts Third-Party Tokenized US Stock Trading Plan

• The SEC has shelved the "third-party tokenized stock" exemption plan originally scheduled for rollout this week, which would allow the issuance of digital tokens tracking stock prices without authorization from the listed companies and enable round-the-clock trading.
• Regulators are concerned about liquidity fragmentation and market fragmentation risks.
• This move reflects a cautious attitude from regulators regarding the integration of crypto and traditional finance.

This decision temporarily alleviates market concerns about potential liquidity chaos from stock tokenization, helping stabilize the traditional securities market, but it also limits the expansion potential of crypto innovation in the stock sector.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: -0.47%, at $4546 per ounce.
• Spot Silver: -1.22%, at $77 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: -4.9%, at $91.83 per barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: Similarly fell to $91.87 per barrel, with potential reopening of the Strait alleviating supply risks.
• Dollar Index: +0.05%, at 99.026.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: -0.55%, at $76,800.
• ETH: -0.45%, at $2,097.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Up 0.1%, at $2.65 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24H is $195 million, with long positions liquidated at $105 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is about $76,783, with a significant concentration of high-leverage short liquidation zones above $78,000-$78,500, indicating clear short pressure accumulation, leaning towards further upward short squeezes. If BTC stabilizes above $77,500, the market may trigger further short liquidations, accelerating the price towards the $79,000 region.

• During the last trading week (Eastern Time May 18 to May 22), Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $1.257 billion. The largest net outflow was from BlackRock's ETF IBIT, with a weekly net outflow of $1.008 billion. The second was Fidelity's ETF FBTC, with a weekly net outflow of $112 million.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed up 0.58%, at 50,579.70 points, maintaining a steady trend.
• S&P 500: Closed up 0.37%, at 7,473.47 points, remaining in high-level fluctuations.
• Nasdaq: Closed up 0.19%, at 26,343.97 points, with the tech sector providing the main drive.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): Closed at $308.82, up 1.26%, slightly strengthening, boosted by overall tech sector sentiment and defensive attributes attracting funds.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Closed at $418.57, down 0.12%, performing relatively steadily, with cloud computing and AI business continuing to provide fundamental support.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Closed at $215.33, down 1.90%, slightly retreating, mainly affected by profit-taking pressure and short-term market rotation.
• Amazon (AMZN): Closed at $266.32, down 0.80%, with a mild adjustment, while the fundamentals of e-commerce and AWS cloud business remain solid.
• Meta (META): Closed at $610.26, up 0.47%, slightly rising, driven by good expectations for advertising revenue.
• Alphabet (Google, GOOGL): Closed at $382.97, down 1.21%, affected by its removal from the Russell 1000 value index, reinforcing its pure growth attribute positioning.
• Tesla (TSLA): Closed at $426.01, up 1.95%, following the overall market trend, with increasing focus on electric vehicle delivery volumes and energy business.

Overall, there were mixed gains and losses, with the AI theme remaining a core driver, but some overvalued stocks facing profit-taking pressure, indicating signs of market fund rotation.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor Sector Mixed Performance

• Representative Stocks: Qualcomm (QCOM) surged 11.60%, closing at $238.16; AMD rose in the range of about 4%-8% (recording strong single-day gains multiple times recently), performing outstandingly.
• Driving Factors: Demand for AI PCs, data centers, and automotive chips continues to exceed expectations, with Qualcomm expanding its Snapdragon collaboration with Stellantis and launching custom silicon projects for AI data centers acting as direct catalysts; Russell index adjustments further highlight the attractiveness of growth attribute stocks. The sector's internal differentiation mainly stems from differences in valuation and fund rotation, with the AI theme still being the main line, but some mature process companies facing competitive pressures.
• Market Impact: In the short term, this boosts confidence in the semiconductor supply chain, but stocks like Qualcomm need to be wary of profit-taking risks after significant surges. In the medium to long term, demand for HBM and advanced processes during the AI supercycle is expected to support overall sector upward movement, with global semiconductor sales projected to grow by over 26% by 2026.

Defensive and Europe-Related Sectors Mildly Strengthening

• Representative Stocks: European defense stocks like Rheinmetall and BAE Systems have performed steadily recently; US healthcare and consumer defensive sectors recorded mild gains.
• Driving Factors: Optimistic expectations from US-Iran talks are driving the "post-war trade" theme, with eased energy risks prompting funds to rotate from pure defensive assets to those potentially benefiting from reconstruction and stability in defensive, healthcare, and European cyclical sectors. The logic of increased defense budgets accumulated during periods of geopolitical tension remains sustainable under easing signals, with many European countries' military spending as a percentage of GDP still on the rise.
• Market Impact: This rotation reflects asset reallocation under improved risk appetite, helping to reduce overall market volatility. However, if the details of the talks do not meet expectations, the defensive sector may regain safe-haven support. Investors may focus on undervalued European assets and cross-opportunities in healthcare innovation.

Overall, sector rotation is accelerating, with the AI growth theme and geopolitical easing benefiting themes jointly dominating the market, suggesting attention to changes in trading volume to assess the sustainability of funds.

III. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. Alphabet (Google) - Russell Index Attribute Reclassification Event Overview: In the June 2026 semi-annual recalibration of the Russell Index, Alphabet and AMD were completely removed from the Russell 1000 value index and reclassified as 100% growth attributes. Among the top ten companies by market capitalization, nine remain unchanged, with Walmart replacing Eli Lilly on the list. Alphabet's market capitalization has surged by 141.9% over the past year, performing outstandingly among top companies. Market Interpretation: Institutional analysts believe this adjustment reflects strong market recognition of Alphabet's long-term growth potential in AI, search, and cloud business, further exacerbating the divergence between value and growth stocks. Investment banks like Morgan Stanley point out that Alphabet's shift from value to pure growth may trigger rebalancing trades from passive funds, temporarily increasing liquidity pressure but strengthening its weight in growth indices in the long term. Investment Insight: Investors can view Alphabet as a core allocation target in AI and the digital economy, with significant mid-to-long-term allocation value, but caution is needed regarding volatility and potential antitrust risks under high valuations.

2. Eli Lilly - Market Capitalization Ranking Exits Top Ten Event Overview: The latest Russell Index ranking shows that Eli Lilly has been replaced by Walmart, exiting the global top ten by market capitalization, although its market cap remains close to $900 billion. Eli Lilly continues to see strong growth in the obesity drug and diabetes treatment sectors, but the relative strength of the retail sector has propelled Walmart's ranking upward. Market Interpretation: Investment banks generally believe this change is not due to a deterioration in Eli Lilly's fundamentals, but rather a revaluation of defensive consumer healthcare and stable retail sectors. Goldman Sachs points out that the GLP-1 drug pipeline still has long-term explosive potential, but short-term fund rotation from overvalued biotech to value-oriented consumer stocks is worth monitoring. Investment Insight: Short-term ranking adjustments may bring outflow pressure, suggesting attention to Eli Lilly's innovative drug clinical data progress; in the long term, its leading position in the obesity and chronic disease treatment market still supports sustained growth potential.

3. SK Hynix - Strong AI Demand for HBM Memory Event Overview: SK Hynix is facing unprecedented supply lock-in demand from global tech giants, with tight supply and demand in the HBM memory market expected to continue beyond 2026. The company is actively promoting related business expansion and benefiting from a surge in capital expenditures for AI data centers. Market Interpretation: Investment banks are optimistic about its leading position in HBM providing pricing power, despite competition from Samsung, with the AI supercycle driving rapid profit growth. UBS and other institutions expect SK Hynix's HBM capacity to be nearly sold out by 2026, with gross margins likely to remain high, pushing its market capitalization close to the trillion-dollar mark. Investment Insight: In the short term, focus on stocks benefiting from AI memory themes and monitor the pace of HBM4/HBM4E capacity expansion; in the long term, track its collaboration depth with giants like NVIDIA to seize opportunities in the semiconductor cycle upward.

4. Samsung Electronics - Internal Labor Dispute Triggered by Chip Division Bonuses Event Overview: Samsung's chip division's substantial performance bonuses (some employees can receive about $400,000) have sparked strong dissatisfaction in the consumer electronics division, with the union previously applying for an injunction and questioning the legality of the agreement. The company ultimately reached a compromise with the union, setting a bonus as a percentage of profits, but still below SK Hynix levels, with voting set to conclude by May 27. Market Interpretation: Institutions are concerned that internal governance and inter-departmental conflicts may temporarily affect morale and supply chain stability, but overall demand for AI chips will provide a buffer. UBS points out that if strike risks are completely eliminated, Samsung's momentum in the HBM4 field is expected to boost market confidence; conversely, potential production disruptions could exacerbate global AI memory shortages. Investment Insight: In the short term, closely monitor the impact of union voting results on stock prices and the progress of internal coordination; in the long term, remain optimistic about Samsung's comprehensive competitiveness in memory and foundry sectors, especially against the backdrop of AI infrastructure expansion.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. A plaintiff using the pseudonym "Noah Doe" has filed a lawsuit in a New York court seeking ownership of 39,069 dormant Bitcoin wallets, including the Satoshi Nakamoto address, which are estimated to contain about 3.7 million Bitcoins worth approximately $290 billion. The plaintiff submitted a 901-page lawsuit document on May 1 through two Wyoming shell companies, ABC Company and XYZ Company, claiming these Bitcoins qualify as "abandoned property" under New York lost property laws.

2. Political Action Committees (PACs) associated with the crypto industry and executives have invested over $500 million in the 2026 US elections, with Republican candidates receiving far more funding support than Democrats.

3. Bhutan recently transferred 90 BTC (approximately $7 million) to a Segwit address, which may indicate a transfer or sale to a third party. Arkham noted that since the beginning of this year, Bhutan has transferred approximately $237.39 million in BTC from its custodial BTC addresses to Segwit addresses, currently holding about $233.18 million in BTC.

4. IOSG Ventures clarified market rumors stating that it has not held or sold UNI or COMP recently, and the addresses pointed to on-chain are not IOSG's official wallets. IOSG stated that Arkham's labeling of the address as "IOSG Ventures" and "Binance Deposit Change Address" both carry a "?" symbol, indicating unverified labels; the related address is actually a wallet used for deposits to Binance and is not associated with IOSG.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-----------|----|-----------|-----| | Focus on US and Global Data | US | Consumer Confidence and Other Subsequent Data | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast
May 26 (Tuesday)

1. US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
2. US May Dallas Fed Business Activity Index

May 27 (Wednesday)

1. Important US Earnings Reports: Marvell (MRVL), Snowflake (SNOW), Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS) to be released after hours ★★★★★;

May 28 (Thursday)

1. Important US Earnings Reports: Dell (DELL), Costco (COST) to be released after hours ★★★★★;
2. Q1 2026 GDP revision, initial jobless claims, and durable goods orders to be released simultaneously
3. April Core PCE (the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve) ★★★★★

May 29 (Friday)

1. US May Chicago PMI release
2. Speech by 2028 FOMC voting member and Kansas Fed President Esther George
3. Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman

This Week's Core Focus for US Stocks:
Surrounding the critical window for US-Iran ceasefire, core PCE inflation data, and the tail end of Q1 earnings season for Marvell, Salesforce, etc., market volatility is expected to increase.

Institutional Views

Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that positive progress in US-Iran talks is significantly alleviating risks of energy supply disruptions, injecting short-term optimism into global markets. J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley noted that if the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, oil prices could quickly fall below $90 per barrel, effectively easing inflationary pressures and providing greater flexibility for the Federal Reserve's subsequent policies, although most forecasts indicate that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at current levels until inflation clearly declines.

Goldman Sachs and others emphasized that against the backdrop of eased energy risks, in addition to continued driving of tech stocks by AI capital expenditures, the "post-war trade" theme is expected to further ferment, with healthcare, European-related assets, and some undervalued cyclical sectors likely to see allocation opportunities. In the crypto market, easing geopolitical tensions are boosting risk appetite, but the outflow pressure from spot ETFs still needs close monitoring, with overall volatility expected to remain high.

In summary, the short-term market will revolve around the specific outcomes of the talks, the actual extent of energy price declines, and the upcoming macro data releases. Investment banks suggest that investors maintain a defensive posture while flexibly positioning in quality assets benefiting from both low oil prices and AI dual drives, focusing on the alignment of valuations and fundamentals to avoid excessive chasing of highs.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.