Bitget UEX Daily Report | Breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations; Trump tariffs may be refunded; Trump delays signing of AI executive order (May 22, 2026)

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes release hawkish signals

• Most officials believe that if inflation remains above target, further tightening may be necessary; interest rates remain unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range; the situation in the Middle East increases economic uncertainty. Market impact: This reinforces the uncertainty of the short-term interest rate path, supports the dollar, pressures precious metals, but also highlights the Federal Reserve's vigilance against stagflation risks, favoring defensive assets in the short term.

International Commodities

OPEC+ may moderately increase production at the June meeting

• Plans to increase production by about 188,000 barrels per day in July; progress in negotiations related to Iran affects geopolitical risk premiums; Trump is concerned about tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. Market impact: Short-term oil prices face downward pressure, but geopolitical factors still support the bottom; if negotiations stall, energy price volatility will remain high.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump intensively comments on Iran, tariffs, and AI

• Progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations, but there are disagreements over the ownership of enriched uranium; Trump emphasizes that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons; the possibility of refunding part of the $149 billion tariff revenue is not ruled out; the signing of the AI executive order is delayed due to dissatisfaction with certain content, prioritizing the assurance of the US's leading position in AI. Market impact: Optimistic expectations from negotiations alleviate energy risks, discussions on tariff refunds may stimulate consumption, while a tendency for AI easing benefits tech stocks, overall boosting risk appetite.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: -0.35%, currently around $4,526/ounce.
• Spot Silver: -0.79%, currently around $76/ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: +1.54%, $97/barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: +2%, currently around $104.9/barrel.
• Dollar Index: +0.05%, currently around 99.25.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: -0.77%, currently around $77,400.
• ETH: -0.73%, currently around $2,130.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: -0.4%, at $2.67 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24H is $213 million, with short positions liquidated at $112 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is around $77,475, with significant high-leverage short liquidation pressure in the $77,800-$79,000 range; if prices continue to rise, it may trigger a new round of short squeezes. The main liquidation area for long positions is concentrated between $76,000-$74,500; if it breaks below key support, it may trigger a series of stop-losses for high-leverage long positions, leading to high short-term volatility risks.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $2.8 million yesterday, ending several days of net outflow; Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $2.1 million yesterday.
• BTC Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday's spot net inflow was $58.37 million, while contract net outflow was $592 million.

The Ethereum Foundation has recently faced criticism due to the departure of core members and the price trend of Ethereum; HYPE price has reached a new high, continuously being accumulated by institutions.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 0.55%, closing at 50,285.66 points, regaining upward momentum after slight fluctuations recently, showing defensive attributes, benefiting from support from the energy and financial sectors.
• S&P 500: Up 0.17%, closing at 7,445.70 points, maintaining resilience after slight consolidation, oscillating near recent highs, with an overall robust structure.
• Nasdaq: Up 0.09%, closing at 26,293.10 points, performing relatively well driven by technology, with chips and AI sectors providing main support, continuing strong characteristics.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): Slightly up 0.91%, closing at $304.99, stable consumer electronics demand, continuous market attention on AI feature upgrades.
• Microsoft (MSFT): -0.47%, closing at $419.09, cloud and AI business providing long-term support.
• Nvidia (NVDA): -1.77%, closing at $219.51, strong demand for AI chips driving growth, valuation remains high.
• Amazon (AMZN): Up 1.30%, closing at $268.46, outstanding performance driven by both e-commerce and cloud services.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): -0.32%, closing at $387.66, positive progress in advertising and AI.
• Meta (META): +0.38%, closing at $607.38, social and advertising business showing strong resilience.
• Tesla (TSLA): +0.14%, closing at $417.85, automotive and energy businesses facing adjustments. The overall core reason is the optimistic expectations for AI and technology capital expenditures continue to dominate market sentiment.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy Sector Slightly retreated about 0.8%-1.2%

• Representative stocks: Schlumberger (SLB) down about 1.5%, Halliburton (HAL) down about 2.1%, some oil service and drilling sub-sectors performed weakly.
• Driving factors: Potential signals of increased production from OPEC+ combined with easing US-Iran negotiations significantly reduce geopolitical risk premiums, leading to pressure on oil prices; although Brent crude oil remains at a high of $104/barrel, short-term production increase expectations have weakened the upward momentum of energy stocks, with clear signs of profit-taking from investors. The sector's YTD increase is still over 20%, but it faces short-term correction pressure.

Technology/Semiconductor Sector Relatively strong, up about 1.5%-2.8%

• Representative stocks: Nvidia (NVDA) leading up about 1.3%, AMD fluctuating in the range of 2%-8% (recently strong), followed by Broadcom (AVGO) and others moving up.
• Driving factors: The capital expenditure boom for AI infrastructure continues, with strong demand for the Blackwell platform and next-generation chips; Trump's delay of the AI regulatory order further boosts market confidence, accelerating the transformation of corporate AI investments, with huge backlogs of cloud services and data center orders; the sector is seen as a core growth engine for 2026, with high valuations but outstanding performance realization ability, contrasting sharply with the energy sector, attracting continuous capital inflow.

III. In-depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. SpaceX Related - Pre-IPO Perpetual Contracts Booming

Event Overview: Before SpaceX's official IPO, the offshore derivatives platform Trade.xyz on the Hyperliquid blockchain launched SpaceX perpetual contracts, with a first-day trading volume reaching $33 million, and valuation once pushed up to $2.4 trillion. Retail investors can participate in long and short positions without equity. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this reflects retail investors' high enthusiasm for the space economy and provides a new reference for traditional IPO pricing, but high leverage may amplify volatility. Investment Insight: Focus on publicly listed companies related to space and defense technology; pre-IPO speculation may indicate long-term growth potential, but caution is needed regarding valuation bubbles.

2. Nvidia (NVDA) - Strong Demand for AI Chips Continues

Event Overview: Nvidia has recently performed outstandingly, with significant growth in data center business revenue driven by increased shipments of Blackwell GPUs. The company continues to benefit from the global AI infrastructure capital expenditure boom, with high market expectations for its next-generation products. Market Interpretation: Analysts believe Nvidia's leading position in the AI accelerator market is solid, with gross margins remaining high, but valuations are at high levels, necessitating caution against intensified competition and capital expenditure cycle volatility risks. Investment Insight: Suitable for long-term investors optimistic about AI themes, it is recommended to pay attention to fluctuations around earnings reports to seize industry trend opportunities.

3. Amazon (AMZN) - AWS Growth and Accelerated Self-Development of AI Chips

Event Overview: Amazon's AWS cloud business maintains strong momentum, recently launching the next-generation Trainium chip to challenge Nvidia's dominance and deepening cooperation with OpenAI, with a continuous large backlog of cloud orders. The company's overall investment in AI infrastructure is accelerating, and its e-commerce business also benefits from a recovering consumer environment. Market Interpretation: The market believes Amazon's heavy investment in AI cloud services is gradually paying off, with AWS's high gross margin contributing to overall profit margins, but the retail sector still faces competition. Institutions are optimistic about its self-developed chip capabilities and ecological layout, with remaining valuation attractiveness. Investment Insight: It is recommended to closely track AWS order conversion and progress in self-developed AI chips; long-term holdings can benefit from cloud infrastructure expansion, paying attention to changes in the macro consumer environment.

4. Apple (AAPL) - AI Integration and Recovery in the Chinese Market

Event Overview: Apple continues to promote the integration of Apple Intelligence features, and the iPhone 17 series is performing well in the Chinese market, with service business maintaining high growth. Despite certain supply chain constraints, the overall resilience of the company's ecosystem is evident, and AI hardware layout is steadily advancing. Market Interpretation: Institutions are generally optimistic about Apple's long-term competitiveness in the consumer AI field, with positive signals of recovery in the Greater China market, but caution is needed regarding the impact of supply chain bottlenecks on costs. Analysts emphasize that its large installed base and high-margin services are core competitive advantages. Investment Insight: Investors can focus on the AI consumer electronics upgrade cycle and service business expansion, suggesting gradual allocation during pullbacks, benefiting from ecological barriers in the long term.

5. AMD - Competition for AI Server Market Share and Ecological Construction

Event Overview: AMD's data center business continues to expand rapidly, with strong shipments of EPYC processors and Instinct GPUs. The company has raised its annual expectations and increased investment in the AI chip ecosystem, collaborating with global customers to promote the launch of next-generation products. Market Interpretation: Institutional views suggest that AMD is gradually capturing market share in some AI server markets, with corporate AI spending as the main driver, but execution in high-end areas still needs verification. Analysts are optimistic about its long-term revenue potential from data centers. Investment Insight: It can be considered as a choice for diversified allocation in the semiconductor sector, focusing on trends in AI capital expenditure and dynamically adjusting positions based on valuation and competitive landscape.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Onchain Lens monitoring shows that whales are accumulating BTC today. Two newly created wallets, bc1qn and bc1q0, received 500 BTC ($38.84 million) from Galaxy Digital. Another wallet received 809 BTC ($6.274 million) from FalconX, and currently, this entity holds a total of 1,583.6 BTC ($124.42 million) across the two wallets.

2. A whale associated with a16z has bought 261,250 HYPE ($15.2 million) again in the past hour. Since April 14, this whale has accumulated 3.17 million HYPE ($148.5 million) at an average price of $46.8, currently with an unrealized profit of $33 million.

3. Former Ethereum Foundation researcher Dankrad Feist posted on platform X, proposing the establishment of a new organization aligned with the Ethereum economy to "save" Ethereum. He believes that the Ethereum Foundation currently holds less than 0.1% of ETH, with no staking or fee income flowing in, so the new organization needs to raise at least $1 billion, managed by competent leaders, with part of the funds coming from staking income, and driven by a more responsible board to push Ethereum prices up.

4. A petition in South Korea calling for the cancellation of a 22% tax on cryptocurrency investment gains has surpassed the threshold of 50,000 signatures, reaching the legal number required for the National Assembly's Finance and Economy Committee to review objections. This tax is set to take effect in January 2027. The petition states that the 22% tax rate imposes financial and reporting burdens on investors while limiting upward mobility for young people squeezed out of the housing market by high housing prices.

5. The DATs (Digital Asset Treasuries) in the Hyperliquid ecosystem currently hold about 10% of the HYPE supply. Data shows that since 2025, the relevant treasury addresses have continuously increased their HYPE holdings, with the proportion exceeding that of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Chain ecosystem corresponding treasury assets.

6. Deribit will see about $6.25 billion in Bitcoin options expire on May 29, involving 80,535 contracts. The current Bitcoin price is around $77,250, with the "maximum pain price" at $75,000, about 3% below the current price, corresponding to the maximum scale of short positions benefiting; this price point is also the concentration point for put options, with a nominal amount of about $394 million.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|--------|----|---------------|-----| | Eastern Time Afternoon | United States | Follow-up on relevant manufacturing/service data | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

• Follow-up on US-Iran Negotiations: Continue to pay attention to progress on core disagreements such as enriched uranium, which may affect the energy market.
• AI Executive Order Update: The Trump team may adjust relevant content in the short term.
• May 22 (Friday)

1. Release of the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that the current market is in a stage of coexisting geopolitical risk easing and macro uncertainty. Breakthroughs in US-Iran negotiations provide downward buffers for oil prices, while Trump's tariffs and AI statements boost risk assets. The Federal Reserve minutes show a hawkish tendency, with the dollar and yields likely to remain strong in the short term, suppressing precious metals but benefiting financial stocks. Although the cryptocurrency market faces ETF outflow pressures, Bitcoin shows resilience around $76,000-$77,000, with institutions viewing it as a long-term allocation variety. Overall, the growth expectations for the second quarter are moderate, suggesting a focus on AI, technology hardware, and defensive commodities, with volatility likely to dominate short-term trading.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data.