Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Trump claims the war will end soon; 30-year US Treasury yield hits a new high since 2007; Google I/O releases new AI products, Nvidia's earnings report arrives tonight (May 20, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Trump's statement on the end of the war alleviates some pressure, but inflation signals remain Trump stated that the war related to Iran will end soon and that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. This statement pushed U.S. stock index futures higher and oil prices lower.

• Key Point 1: Market concerns about geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, supporting risk assets.
• Key Point 2: Traders see an increased probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before July 2027.
• Key Point 3: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through 5.19%, reaching a new high since 2007, reflecting rising inflation expectations.

Market Impact: Short-term favorable for risk appetite, but a high yield environment may limit the Federal Reserve's future rate cut space; attention is needed on subsequent geopolitical developments and data validation.

International Commodities

Trump's statement drives oil prices lower, geopolitical easing expectations dominate short-term trends Trump's remarks about the war ending soon triggered market expectations of easing energy supply tensions, leading to declines in WTI and Brent crude oil prices.

• Key Point 1: Oil prices have retreated from previous highs, alleviating some inflation concerns.
• Key Point 2: Shipping disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz still exist, but short-term sentiment has improved.
• Key Point 3: Gold and silver fluctuate slightly amid rising yields and geopolitical easing.

Market Impact: The decline in oil prices helps reduce imported inflation pressure, providing positive support for global growth and consumption expectations, but actual supply recovery needs to be continuously monitored.

Macroeconomic Policy

30-year U.S. Treasury yield surges to a new high of 5.19%, inflation panic and rising borrowing costs coexist The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through 5.19%, the highest level since before the 2007 financial crisis, with large sell orders exacerbating the sell-off. Mortgage rates have risen to their highest level since July last year.

• Key Point 1: Inflation expectations are heating up due to energy and geopolitical factors.
• Key Point 2: The predictive market shows more uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path.
• Key Point 3: High yields increase financing costs for the real economy, putting pressure on real estate and the stock market.

Market Impact: Strengthens expectations for a "higher for longer" policy environment, increasing market volatility in the short term, and potentially constraining growth in the long term; investors need to pay attention to subsequent inflation data and Federal Reserve statements.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: +0.41%, $4,500/oz.
• Spot Silver: +1.26%, $74/oz.
• WTI Crude Oil: -0.26%, $103/barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: -0.38%, $110.
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): +0.04%, at 99.34.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: -0.39%, at $76,769.
• ETH: -1.19%, at $2,110.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: -0.8%, at $2.63 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24H is $158 million, with long positions liquidated at $106 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Near current price, key resistance zones above have concentrated liquidation pressure, while support zones below provide a buffer; short-term volatility may trigger chain liquidations.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $5.5 million yesterday, with a net outflow of $945 million over three days.
• BTC Inflow/Outflow: Spot saw a net outflow of $54 million yesterday, with contract net outflow of $277 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: -0.65%, at 49,363.88 points, under pressure for three consecutive days.
• S&P 500: -0.67%, at 7,353.61 points, with notable drag from technology and growth stocks.
• Nasdaq: -0.84%, at 25,870.71 points, driven by profit-taking in overvalued tech stocks and rising yield pressure.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL) +0.38% at $298.97: Hardware department restructuring accelerates AI integration, relatively resilient.
• NVIDIA (NVDA) -0.77% at $220.61: Earnings report tonight, market cautious in advance, long-term AI demand expectations unchanged.
• Microsoft (MSFT) -1.44% at $417.42: AI and cloud business remain robust, but overall market sentiment drags.
• Meta (META) -1.41% at $602.61: Advertising and AI investments run parallel, short-term affected by the broader market.
• Amazon (AMZN) -2.08% at $259.34: Cloud and e-commerce performance stable, but valuation adjustment pressure emerges.
• Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) -2.09% at $387.66: I/O conference releases multiple AI products, long-term beneficial but short-term profit-taking.
• Tesla (TSLA) -1.43% at $404.11: Delivery and Robotaxi progress under scrutiny, volatility remains high.

Core Reason Summary: Overvalued tech stocks face dual pressure from rising yields and profit-taking; the long-term narrative around AI remains unchanged, but short-term volatility intensifies.

Sector Movement Observation

Optical Communication Sector sees significant gains

• Representative stocks: Astera Labs +13.3%, Credo Technology +8.14%, Marvell Technology +4.34%.
• Driving Factors: Strong demand for AI data centers and high-speed interconnects, with some stocks experiencing rebounds from oversold conditions and capital bottom-fishing.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. NVIDIA - Earnings Report Tonight

Event Overview: NVIDIA will release its Q1 earnings report after the market closes on May 20, Eastern Time. The implied volatility in the options market suggests a potential single-day price swing of about 7.56%. Wall Street generally expects the company to exceed delivery expectations and raise its full-year guidance, with AI data center demand remaining a core driver. Market Interpretation: Institutional views suggest that while short-term geopolitical and macro volatility may cause disturbances, the AI capital expenditure cycle is still in its early stages. As a core beneficiary, NVIDIA's long-term growth logic is solid. Some analysts emphasize the need to focus on gross margins and the pace of next-generation product releases. Investment Insight: Post-earnings volatility is worth monitoring; it is advisable to align with long-term AI trends and manage positions, keeping leverage in check in the short term.

2. Alphabet (Google) - I/O Conference Releases Multiple AI Products

Event Overview: The Google I/O conference introduced Gemini 3.5 Flash (the fastest and most efficient model), Gemini Spark AI agents (integrating tasks across platforms like Gmail and Docs), and an upgraded search experience, all free to the global audience, enhancing multimodal and agent capabilities. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this move further solidifies Google's leading position in generative AI and search, which will enhance monetization capabilities for advertising and cloud services in the long term. However, the market is more focused on the pace of actual commercialization and competitive landscape in the short term. Investment Insight: Continuous iteration of the AI product matrix is a core competitive advantage; attention should be paid to subsequent developer adoption and revenue contribution data.

3. Apple - Hardware Department Restructuring Accelerates AI Implementation

Event Overview: Apple's Chief Hardware Officer Johny Srouji initiated a major restructuring of the hardware development department, aiming to integrate the in-house chip team and product team more closely to accelerate the implementation of AI features in hardware. Market Interpretation: Institutions point out that this move is an important organizational adjustment for Apple to catch up in the AI competition. Combined with previous chip and software layouts, it is expected to launch more competitive AI terminal experiences in 2026 and beyond. Investment Insight: The implementation of AI hardware is a medium to long-term catalyst; it is advisable to track product release milestones and ecosystem feedback.

4. Optical Communication-Related Stocks (e.g., Astera Labs) - AI Demand Drives Sector Movement

Event Overview: Several optical and high-speed interconnect stocks have seen significant rebounds, with Astera Labs rising over 13% in a single day, reflecting ongoing market attention to the infrastructure needs of AI data centers. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that the demand for high-speed, low-latency connections for AI training and inference is still growing rapidly, with some oversold stocks attracting capital attention, but caution is needed regarding valuation and profit realization timing. Investment Insight: The sector shows clear differentiation; it is advisable to select fundamentally solid stocks with high order visibility while controlling short-term volatility risks.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that Hyperliquid's HYPE token is still undervalued, despite having risen 77% this year, making it the best-performing large-cap cryptocurrency of 2026. Matt Hougan believes that HYPE is a "second-generation" cryptocurrency with the potential to appreciate over time like securities, and its value remains underestimated.

2. K33 Research reported that this round of the Bitcoin bear market is different, with abnormally pessimistic traders limiting downside potential. Bitcoin traders remain defensive, reducing the risk of a leveraged-driven collapse. Research Director Vetle Lunde pointed out that the current slow bottoming process has not replicated the rapid reversals seen after previous bear market rebounds; derivative data instead points to extreme pessimism. The 30-day average funding rate for Bitcoin has been negative for 81 consecutive days, nearing the longest historical record, and the CME Bitcoin futures annualized basis has dropped below 2.5%, indicating extreme caution. However, Bitcoin derivative open interest remains high, and further price weakness could trigger volatility. K33 maintains its basic judgment that Bitcoin's drop to $60,000 in February may be the largest pullback of this round.

3. As traditional asset management companies accelerate the tokenization of assets on-chain, the total market cap of real-world assets (RWA) has surpassed $65 billion, growing approximately 44% since the beginning of the year. Ethereum holds about 33% of the market share, maintaining its position as the default platform for institutional tokenization.

4. According to The Block, the daily trading volume of tokenized stocks reached a historical high of $3.57 billion on Monday. Platforms like Ondo and Bitget have driven cumulative on-chain stock trading volume to several billion dollars. Notably, Bloomberg reported on Monday that the U.S. SEC is developing guidelines and innovation exemptions for the emerging on-chain stock ecosystem.

5. According to CoinDesk, Christoph Hock, head of digital assets and tokenization at one of Germany's largest institutional asset management companies, Union Investment, stated that the reserve structure of Tether and Circle's stablecoins resembles speculative funds rather than true fiat-backed instruments. Even holding a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds does not shield them from sudden liquidity crises. Hock pointed out that Tether holds substantial amounts of gold and Bitcoin, making USDT and USDC more like hedge funds, with vulnerabilities in their token economics that could affect holders' financial interests.

6. The total supply of stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, but growth has stagnated. Tether's USDT has increased by over $5 billion in the past month, while the combined supply of USDC, USDe, and PYUSD has decreased by approximately $4.2 billion during the same period, resulting in a net growth of only about $900 million, equivalent to a total supply growth of 0.3%.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|------|----|-------------|-------| | Eastern Time | United States | EIA Crude Oil Inventory Weekly Report | ⭐⭐⭐ | | After Market | United States | NVIDIA Q1 Earnings Report | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

May 20 (Wednesday)

1. NVIDIA (NVDA) to release Q1 results after market close (absolute core this week) ★★★★★
2. SpaceX to submit IPO prospectus as early as this Wednesday, targeting a June 12 listing ★★★★★
3. U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 15 to be released;
4. Other important U.S. stock earnings: Lowe's (LOW), Analog Devices (ADI), Target (TGT), Intuit (INTU), GDS Holdings (GDS), etc.

May 21 (Thursday)

1. Federal Reserve to release minutes from the April 28-29 FOMC meeting (Powell's last term, signaling the start of the Walsh era) ★★★★★
2. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16 to be released;
3. U.S. May preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI to be released;
4. Important U.S. stock earnings: Walmart (WMT), Chinese concept stocks: NIO, NetEase (NTES), Vipshop (VIPS) to be released before market open;

May 22 (Friday)

1. U.S. May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value to be released.

This week's core focus for U.S. stocks: NVIDIA's significant earnings release (key test for AI market continuity), Federal Reserve meeting minutes (signal for Powell's term ending), Google I/O developer conference, potential IPO prospectus release from SpaceX, and multiple important earnings reports from consumer tech and Chinese concept stocks like Walmart, with macro data and corporate events densely packed, expected to significantly increase market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Based on the trends over the past 24 hours, Trump's statement about the war ending soon has injected a phase of optimism into the market, pushing U.S. stock index futures up and oil prices down, effectively alleviating some inflation concerns. However, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking through 5.19% clearly reflects market worries about persistent inflation and a "higher for longer" policy environment. Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that if geopolitical easing can continue, it will support risk assets, especially in the AI and technology growth sectors; however, the high yield environment may suppress valuations, and caution is needed in the short term regarding potential pullbacks from data validation falling short of expectations. NVIDIA's earnings report is seen as an important barometer, with institutions generally expecting it to continue exceeding expectations and raising guidance, benefiting the AI supply chain. The cryptocurrency market follows macro and risk appetite fluctuations, with BTC and ETH oscillating near key support levels; ETF flows and leverage liquidation data are worth continuous monitoring. Overall, the current market is in a phase of geopolitical optimism and macro caution, and it is advisable to maintain flexible positions, focusing on earnings season and subsequent inflation data.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data.