Bitget UEX Daily Report｜US-Iran negotiations are stalled, inflation concerns weigh heavily on the market; US stocks adjust from high levels, energy prices push up bond market yields (May 18, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Federal Reserve Leadership Transition: Powell Serves as Interim Chair

• The Federal Reserve announced on May 15 that current Chair Jerome Powell will serve as "interim chair" until Kevin Warsh officially takes office, in line with the customary transition practices.
• Market focus has shifted to policy continuity following the new chair's appointment, especially under current inflationary pressures. Market Impact: Uncertainty during the transition period may exacerbate short-term volatility, as investors assess the new leadership's potential for interest rate cuts in a high oil price environment, with current easing expectations having significantly receded.

International Commodities

US-Iran Stalemate Continues, Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz Disrupted, Driving Up Energy Prices

• There are significant divergences in US-Iran negotiations, with Trump warning Iran to act quickly or face harsher consequences; the UAE and Saudi Arabia reported drone attack incidents, further escalating regional tensions.
• Crude oil prices surged significantly, with WTI nearing or exceeding $105 per barrel, raising global inflation expectations. Market Impact: The risk of energy shortages has led to soaring bond market yields, with investors pricing in a "higher interest rate era," suppressing risk appetite in the stock market.

Macroeconomic Policy

US Treasury Yields Approach High Levels, Inflation Concerns Dominate Market Sentiment

• The 30-year US Treasury yield is approaching over 5%, a twenty-year high, with the 10-year yield rising significantly; Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital believes that a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting is "absolutely impossible."
• Preliminary results from US-China economic and trade consultations include tariff consensus, establishment of a council, and progress on agricultural market access. Market Impact: Rising inflation expectations combined with geopolitical risks suppress risk asset performance while providing some support for precious metals and energy-related sectors.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: -1.08%, approximately $4488 per ounce.
• Spot Silver: -1.84%, approximately $74.45 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: +1.38%, driven by concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with prices rising to $103 per barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: +1.12%, reported at $110 per barrel.
• US Dollar Index: +0.13%, strengthening to 99.37.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: -1.31%, reported at approximately $77,000; showing volatility under dual pressures of geopolitics and macroeconomics, short-term affected by risk aversion.
• ETH: -3.2%, reported at approximately $2100; following the market, with high volatility.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: -1.1%, reported at $2.65 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Approximately $659 million liquidated in total over 24 hours, with $590 million in long positions liquidated.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Near current price, with upper resistance zone focusing on liquidation concentration; lower support needs to be cautious of concentrated long positions.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC current price around 76979, with a large concentration of high-leverage short liquidation zones above 78,700-79,500; if it continues to rebound, it may trigger a chain reaction of short covering and amplify upward volatility. Below 76,000-77,000, there is a dense area of long leverage; if it breaks down, there may be short-term long liquidation and further pullback.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 1.07%, reported at 49,526.11 points; high-level pullback, dominated by inflation concerns.
• S&P 500: Down 1.24%, reported at 7,408.50 points; retreating from record highs.
• Nasdaq: Down 1.54%, reported at 26,225.14 points; technology stocks under significant pressure.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Microsoft (MSFT): Reported at $414.23, -0.68%.
• Apple (AAPL): Reported at $300.23, +0.68%.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Reported at $225.32, -4.42%.
• Meta (META): Reported at $614.23, -0.68%.
• Amazon (AMZN): Reported at $264.1, -1.15%.
• Google (GOOGL): Reported at $396.78, -1.07%.
• Tesla (TSLA): Reported at $422.24, -4.75%.

Summary: Most giants are under pressure, with Microsoft relatively resilient due to its defensive attributes; rising inflation expectations and increasing US Treasury yields jointly suppress growth stock valuations, leading to some rotation of market funds.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy/Oil Service Sector: Strongly rising, driven by a significant increase in oil prices.

• Representative stocks: ExxonMobil (XOM) up about 4.07%, Chevron (CVX) up about 2.39%, Schlumberger (SLB) performing steadily, Halliburton (HAL) showing outstanding gains.
• Driving Factors: The stalemate in US-Iran negotiations has heightened concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with global energy shortage risks pushing up crude oil prices, benefiting the entire industry chain.

Technology/Semiconductor Sector: Clearly declining.

• Representative stocks: Micron Technology (MU) down 6.62%, Intel (INTC) down 6.18%.
• Driving Factors: AI investment enthusiasm is temporarily suppressed by high inflation, rising US Treasury yields, and tightening interest rate expectations, leading to profit-taking and sector rotation in the market.

Precious Metals Mining Sector: Overall weakening (specific stocks average decline of 2-5%).

• Driving Factors: A strong US dollar index and rising yields create pressure on non-yielding assets.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. SpaceX - Plans to Go Public Event Overview: Elon Musk's SpaceX has accelerated its IPO process, with pricing expected on June 11 and listing on Nasdaq on June 12, targeting a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion and aiming to raise about $75 billion, which would make it one of the largest IPOs in US capital market history. Institutions like BlackRock are considering participating in subscriptions of $5-10 billion. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally have a positive outlook on the long-term structural growth prospects of aerospace and satellite internet (Starlink), especially against the backdrop of expanding global satellite communication demand and accelerated commercialization of the space economy. This IPO is not only a capital event but may also reshape the market's valuation framework for "hard tech" giants. However, high valuations have raised concerns about profitability and execution risks, and potential fund rotation effects are worth monitoring—some investors may adjust their positions from Musk-related assets like Tesla to make room. Investment Insight: Initial liquidity and valuation volatility may be significant, suitable for investors with long-term confidence in the space economy and satellite infrastructure to strategically track rather than engage in short-term speculation.

2. Samsung Electronics - Strike Risk Event Overview: Samsung Electronics faces the risk of its first large-scale strike in history, with labor and management resuming "last chance" negotiations on May 18, and the South Korean government issuing a strong warning. The union insists on starting an 18-day strike on May 21, demanding better profit sharing, and the market has already priced in negative expectations. Market Interpretation: As the world's largest memory chip manufacturer, concerns over supply chain disruptions at Samsung have led to a significant pullback in its stock price, dragging down the overall semiconductor sector. If the strike occurs, potential daily losses could reach hundreds of millions of dollars and may exacerbate global chip supply tightness, especially given the high demand for AI computing power. This event highlights the dual challenges of labor costs and geopolitical supply chain vulnerabilities faced by tech giants, resonating with the current high interest rate and inflation environment. Investment Insight: Short-term volatility in the semiconductor sector is likely to amplify, and investors need to closely monitor the negotiation outcomes, as the success or failure of negotiations will directly impact industry supply-demand balance and pricing power of related US stock supply chain companies.

3. Microsoft - Gates Foundation Liquidation Event Overview: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust liquidated its remaining approximately 7.7 million shares of Microsoft stock (valued at about $3.2 billion) in the first quarter, completely exiting a position held for decades; Bill Gates personally still holds a significant amount of shares, while other institutions like Bill Ackman have significantly increased their positions during the same period. Market Interpretation: This liquidation primarily stems from the foundation's need for charitable fund allocation and diversification, rather than a bearish outlook on Microsoft's fundamentals. Microsoft's leading position in AI (Copilot), cloud computing (Azure), and enterprise markets remains solid, and continued high capital expenditures demonstrate its long-term growth commitment. Institutional views are notably divided: selling provides liquidity, while buying bets on valuation attractiveness, reflecting a typical institutional game pattern for mature tech giants in a high-valuation environment. Investment Insight: Institutional liquidity does not change the long-term positive trend for Microsoft's core AI + cloud business; it is advisable to focus on its quarterly performance to validate AI monetization progress rather than a single foundation's action.

4. Tesla - Model Y Price Increase Event Overview: Tesla has raised prices for some mid-to-high configurations of the Model Y in the US market for the first time in nearly two years: Premium RWD and AWD each increased by $1,000, and the Performance version increased by $500, while the entry-level version remains unchanged. Market Interpretation: This move reflects a pricing strategy optimization under pressure from raw material, logistics, and operational costs, while also testing consumer willingness to pay for electric vehicles in the current high oil price environment. In a market with intensified competition and differentiated demand, Tesla is achieving margin recovery through price increases on high-end models, while keeping the base model stable to maintain sales thresholds. This strategy is positively correlated with rising energy prices but also needs to be cautious of the potential suppression of discretionary consumption due to macroeconomic slowdown. Investment Insight: Pay attention to subsequent delivery data and changes in profit margins; pricing flexibility will be key for Tesla to maintain an advantage in the competitive landscape, suitable for investors focusing on its long-term electric vehicle and energy ecosystem layout.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. According to Blockaid monitoring, its vulnerability detection system found that the Verus-Ethereum cross-chain bridge (verus.io) is under attack, currently resulting in losses of approximately $11.58 million.
2. Binance Research released this week's chart analysis indicating that four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening, and selling pressure has been exhausted.

• Long-term Dormancy: Nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved for over a year, far exceeding 27% in 2012. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% when the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024 and has remained close to historical highs since then.

• SLRV Indicator: The value ratio of short-term to long-term holders is deeply entrenched in historical bottom territory, indicating a lack of market enthusiasm. Long-term holders dominate supply, while short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, every cycle bottom has been accompanied by this ratio entering the current area.

• Exchange Balances: After peaking at 17.6% during the pandemic, exchange balances have fallen to 15.0%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently leaving exchanges, and seller supply dropping to a six-year low.

• STH MVRV Indicator: Since November 2024, the MVRV of short-term holders of BTC has mostly remained below 1.0, gradually exhausting selling pressure. Currently, this ratio has risen to 1.0, with short-term holders beginning to accumulate unrealized gains again. As profit accumulation is still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to emerge immediately; historically, this pattern often appears before a sustained recovery.

1. CryptoBriefing reported that Iran has launched a state-supported digital marine insurance platform, Hormuz Safe, to provide marine insurance for vessels passing through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, settling in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The Iranian government believes that if this platform can capture a significant share of the Persian Gulf shipping insurance market, it could generate over $10 billion in revenue. Hormuz Safe aims to bypass the SWIFT network and Western intermediaries, reducing Iran's reliance on traditional financial infrastructure. The biggest obstacle facing the platform is the issue of international recognition; if shipowners, trading companies, or port management agencies interact with this platform, it may trigger secondary sanction risks.

2. TsLombard stated that in the face of oil price shocks, the extent of global central bank policy tightening may be quite limited, and an aggressive tightening cycle is unlikely to occur. In the US, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing policy tightening in the short term is low, and even if it does, it is almost certain to wait until 2027.

3. Tokens such as ZRO, KAITO, and PYTH will see significant unlocks this week, with PYTH unlocking approximately $95.5 million in value.

4. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has recently tested the $82,000 level three times but has faced pullbacks each time. Data shows that during each rebound, the STH-SOPR indicator rises to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are taking profits during the rally rather than holding on.

Axel Adler pointed out that $82,000 is not only a key resistance level technically but also an important selling pressure zone in terms of market behavior. This position coincides with Bitcoin's 200-day moving average (200D SMA); until the STH-SOPR SMA(7) remains above 1.0 for several consecutive days and BTC effectively breaks above the 200-day moving average, market rebounds may still be seen as selling opportunities.

On a macro level, the escalation of the Middle East situation continues to suppress market risk appetite. Affected by the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and expectations of "higher interest rates lasting longer," US stocks fell across the board on Friday, with WTI crude futures rising over 4%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to about 4.6%, reaching a new high for the year.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|--------|----|----------|-----| | Focus on US Session | US | Follow-up on Relevant Economic Data | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

• Samsung Labor Negotiations: May 18 - Focus on whether an agreement is reached and its impact on the supply chain.
• Google I/O Conference: May 19-20 - Expectations for AI technology updates.

Institutional Views:

Goldman Sachs and other institutions point out that the biggest threat to the current market is the "Iran risk combined with an interest rate storm." Economic growth pricing has become overly optimistic, while pricing for geopolitical tail risks is relatively low; if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is prolonged, it will trigger energy repricing and severe volatility. The inflation environment limits the Federal Reserve's room for easing, and after a rebound, the volatility threshold in the stock market has increased, suggesting that investors should prepare for higher uncertainty. Overall, short-term macro and geopolitical factors dominate, while long-term attention should still be paid to structural opportunities in AI and energy transition.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.