market

According to CoinDesk, on-chain data platform Arkham Intelligence shows that SpaceX currently holds approximately 8,285 bitcoins in its Coinbase Prime custody account, valued at about $545 million at the latest prices, down about $235 million from an estimated $780 million three months ago. During this period, the company did not reduce its holdings.SpaceX plans to submit a confidential IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as early as March, aiming for a June listing, with a valuation potentially exceeding $1.75 trillion and a fundraising target of up to $50 billion. If successful, it would break the $29 billion IPO record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019.Data shows that the company's bitcoin holdings have remained around 8,300 since early 2026, but the book value has fluctuated significantly due to the BTC price correction. At the end of 2021, its BTC holdings peaked at nearly $2 billion, followed by a decline during the 2022 bear market, fluctuating between $400 million and $800 million over the past two years.Market participants point out that once the S-1 filing is submitted, SpaceX will need to disclose its exposure to related crypto assets, and future financial reports may reflect the book profit and loss risks arising from bitcoin price fluctuations. Previously, Tesla had drawn market attention multiple times due to similar book value fluctuations. However, on-chain data does not indicate that SpaceX has engaged in active trading; unlike Tesla, which has conducted buy and sell operations, SpaceX appears to prefer a long-term holding strategy.

According to Cointelegraph, former Credit Suisse Chief Investment Officer Iggy Ioppe stated that during the period when CME Group's gold futures closed on Friday at 5:00 PM (Eastern Time) and reopened on Sunday at 6:00 PM, nearly all publicly visible gold price formation occurred in the on-chain market.He pointed out that during this time window, the regulated futures market was paused, and while there was some activity in the over-the-counter (OTC) market in Asia, it was not publicly transparent. Therefore, tokenized gold assets such as PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUt) became the only continuously tradable public market."From the perspective of publicly visible price formation, the on-chain market accounted for almost 100% of weekend price discovery." When CME resumes trading, futures prices typically align with the fluctuations that have occurred in the on-chain market.Data shows that the market capitalization of tokenized gold has risen to $4.4 billion, with approximately $2.8 billion added in the past year, an increase of 177%, far exceeding the performance of most spot gold ETFs. The total trading volume for 2025 is about $178 billion, with a peak of over $126 billion in the fourth quarter alone, making it second only to SPDR Gold Shares in terms of trading volume.On Saturday, amid airstrikes by the U.S. against Iran and escalating geopolitical tensions, tokenized gold briefly rose, with XAUt surpassing $5,450 and PAXG nearing $5,536, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell in tandem.Current major participants include market makers, cross-market liquidity providers, and crypto-native macro traders who use tokenized gold for arbitrage, collateral, hedging, and yield strategies. Some institutions also monitor weekend on-chain gold trends to assess the "gap risk" before CME opens, but they often regard it as a reference signal rather than a direct basis for building positions.

According to Jin Shi reports, the Iranian stock market has suspended trading until next week. A spokesperson for the Iranian Securities and Exchange Organization stated that currently only stock market trading has been suspended, and details regarding the operation arrangements for spot trading or other financial markets in the capital market will be announced later.

According to Jin Shi reports, the Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Paul Chan, stated today that there is not much direct trade and investment between Hong Kong and Iran, but the ongoing conflict has created significant uncertainty globally. He estimated that the financial markets are experiencing considerable volatility due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, with capital flows potentially shifting more rapidly and uncertainty persisting. Local funds may seek a "safe haven" and come to Hong Kong, and the SAR government must be prepared to carefully manage financial risks, having already established sufficient contingency plans. He pointed out that this conflict may have a short-term impact on gold prices, oil prices, and international trade transportation costs, and the SAR government has been continuously assessing the related risks.

According to CoinDesk, since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, dozens of contracts related to Iran have appeared on the prediction market Polymarket, with the prediction market for Khamenei's resignation attracting a trading volume of $45 million.The account with the highest trading volume is named "Curseaaaaaaa," which made a profit of $757,000 by betting "yes." Additionally, four other traders also achieved six-figure profits.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted on X regarding the death of Khamenei and related prediction market events, stating: "We will not list markets that are directly tied to death. When a market may have a death outcome, we will design rules to prevent people from profiting from death."Because of this, Kalshi will handle the "Khamenei stepping down as Supreme Leader" related events as follows:All fees for this market will be refunded;If users opened positions before Khamenei's death, settlements will be based on the last trading price before Khamenei's death;If users opened positions after Khamenei's death, costs will be fully reimbursed.Tarek Mansour further stated: "No user will lose a dollar in this market. We will settle the market at the last transaction price before Khamenei's death, which was at 1:14 AM Eastern Time today."

According to Polymarket data, the probability of the market for "Khamenei will step down as Iran's Supreme Leader before March 31" has sharply risen to 93% today, an increase of 85 percentage points from before, with a total market trading volume of $30.43 million.

According to Israel's Channel 12, an Israeli source stated that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has died in the Israeli military strike against Iran, and his body has reportedly been found in the rubble. Relevant documents have been secured by the Israeli side and have been submitted to Prime Minister Netanyahu and senior security officials. Meanwhile, it is reported that Khamenei's son-in-law and wife have also been killed in this round of attacks.According to senior Israeli officials who spoke to Fox News Digital, Khamenei died after Israel launched an attack on Tehran, and his residence has been reduced to rubble in the strike.Iran's Tasnim News Agency and Mehr News Agency reported that the Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei is "steadfastly commanding the battlefield." Sources close to Khamenei's office stated, "I can assure you that the revolutionary leader is firmly and calmly commanding the front lines."

According to Coinmarketcap data, the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization is as follows, with the top five gainers: Pippin (PIPPIN) up 9%, current price $0.5915; Kite (KITE) up 4.75%, current price $0.2549; PAX Gold (PAXG) up 3.48%, current price $5,430.49; MemeCore (M) up 2.65%, current price $1.47; Tether Gold (XAUT) up 2.53%, current price $5,348.23.The top five losers: Decred (DCR) down 16.58%, current price $29.84; KuCoin Token (KCS) down 9.46%, current price $7.59; Arbitrum (ARB) down 8.28%, current price $0.0934; Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) down 6.78%, current price $0.1484; Render (RENDER) down 6.5%, current price $1.33.

According to Bloomberg, tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran have escalated, prompting traders to turn to crypto trading venues for around-the-clock hedging. Perpetual contracts linked to oil on Hyperliquid rose about 6.2% to $70.6 per barrel, while gold and silver perpetual contracts increased over 5% and 8%, reaching $5464 and $97.5 per ounce, respectively. The trading volume of silver perpetual contracts exceeded $400 million in the past 24 hours, while gold contract trading volume approached $140 million, and U.S. stock index contracts on the platform fell 1% to 2%.The Iran conflict triggered a risk-off sell-off in the crypto market, with Bitcoin briefly dropping 3.8% to $63038, before stabilizing around $64000; ETH fell 4.5% to $1836 at one point. According to CoinGecko data, the total market capitalization of digital assets evaporated by about $128 billion following the outbreak of the conflict.Jake Ostrovskis, head of over-the-counter trading at Wintermute, stated that due to Bitcoin's around-the-clock trading, it has become the most liquid asset for traders to express macro views when other markets are closed, with more asset classes moving towards 24/7 trading. Charlie Ambrose, co-founder of Felix, mentioned that this weekend marked another instance of around-the-clock price discovery through perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid, potentially driving a macro shift in how global markets operate.

Due to the全面升级 of the US-Iran conflict, on-chain gold prices represented by PAXG and XAUT have surged dramatically. Among them, PAXG reached a high of $5,600, with a daily trading volume exceeding $1 billion, fully reflecting investors' demand for gold trading during black swan events. In contrast, the gold market under the traditional financial system remains closed.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, Polymarket user anoin123 had previously continued to bet that the U.S./Israel would not strike Iran, accumulating profits of over $2 million within two months.However, after the strike event occurred, anoin123 suffered a single-day loss of $6.5 million, turning from a profit of over $2 million to a loss of over $4.5 million.

According to the latest statistics from RootData, the investment and financing heat in the cryptocurrency market has cooled down in February 2026, with a total of 63 financing events recorded throughout the month, amounting to $864 million, a month-on-month decrease of 19.3%. Despite the overall decline, the trend of capital concentrating on leading projects has become increasingly evident: this month, there were 16 large financing events exceeding $10 million, with stablecoin ecosystems, institutional-grade tools, and compliance platforms becoming the core revenue-generating tracks.This month, stablecoin giant Tether was extremely active, strategically investing $150 million in Gold.com and $100 million in Anchorage on February 5, demonstrating its deep layout in the infrastructure and physical asset sectors.At the same time, BTC Inc was acquired by Nakamoto for $107 million, and Korbit received a $93.82 million acquisition increase from Mirae Asset. This marks a new round of consolidation in the industry, with traditional financial giants (such as Mirae Asset) accelerating the acquisition of compliant trading platforms.In addition, the activity in the Japanese market surged, with Penguin Securities raising ¥2.8 billion and JPYC securing ¥1.78 billion in financing, showcasing the strength of the yen ecosystem in the fields of compliant stablecoins and securitization.

According to Jinshi Data reports, there are market rumors that Iran has launched ballistic missiles at all Gulf countries except Oman.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a wallet created just 3 days ago purchased "YES" shares for the "U.S. strikes on Iran" event on Polymarket, with $60,800 betting on a strike occurring on February 28 and $3,000 betting on a strike occurring on March 1, currently realizing a profit of $493,500. Onchain Lens indicates that this wallet may belong to an insider.

According to market news, a whale with the address "0x172" borrowed 7 million USDC from Aave and purchased 3,753 ETH at a price of $1,865. The whale currently holds 15,964 ETH, worth approximately $29.68 million.

According to Coinglass data, influenced by the U.S. strikes against Iran, the cryptocurrency market has rapidly declined, with $260 million liquidated in the past 4 hours, of which $224 million was from long positions.

According to market news, Russia is considering suspending peace talks unless Ukraine relinquishes some territory.

According to WIRED, OpenAI recently fired an employee for trading on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi based on insider information.The report states that the employee used non-public information obtained through their work at OpenAI to place bets on related contracts, which is suspected to constitute "insider trading" and violate the company's compliance policies.