Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump visits China; Waller approved to serve as Federal Reserve Chairman; PPI hits a high as interest rate hikes intensify (May 14, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Kevin Warsh officially confirmed by the Senate to succeed as Federal Reserve Chairman

• On Wednesday local time, the Senate approved Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman with a vote of 54 in favor and 45 against, succeeding the current Chairman Powell, whose term expires on May 15. This appointment concludes a fierce selection process that began in the summer of 2025 and lasted several months. The market is focused on the continuity of monetary policy after Warsh takes office; in the short term, the Federal Reserve's decisions may maintain a cautious tone, but long-term uncertainties may exacerbate volatility in the bond market. This move coincides with Trump's visit to China, highlighting the sensitivity of global central bank policy directions amid high-level interactions between China and the U.S., which is expected to have a mid-term impact on the pricing of the dollar and risk assets.

International Commodities

OPEC monthly report shows April crude oil production hits a new low since 1990

• In April, OPEC's overall daily average production plummeted by 1.727 million barrels month-on-month to 18.98 million barrels, with Saudi Arabia contributing about half of the decline, its daily production having dropped by 42% to 6.32 million barrels, the lowest since the Gulf War;
• Supply contraction combined with geopolitical factors has driven a short-term rebound in oil prices;
• Analysts believe that this round of production cuts reinforces market expectations of a tight supply balance, and upward pressure on crude oil prices is expected to continue, but caution is needed regarding the counteraction of global demand slowdown.

Macroeconomic Policy

U.S. April PPI surges 6% year-on-year, hitting a new high since 2022, raising interest rate hike bets

• In April, PPI rose 1.4% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year, with significant increases in energy and transportation costs, and service sector inflation reaching a four-year high;
• The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction rose to 5.046%, marking the first time it has surpassed 5% since the 2007 financial crisis, with the auction results being weak;
• Institutional pricing shows that the probability of an interest rate hike once within 2026 is approaching 50%, and inflation exceeding expectations may force the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts or even shift to tightening, putting pressure on risk appetite in both the bond and stock markets.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: +0.13%, around $4695 per ounce;
• Spot Silver: +0.06%, around $87.5 per ounce;
• WTI Crude Oil: +0.21%, around $97.7 per barrel;
• Brent Crude Oil: +0.08%, around $103.8 per barrel;
• Dollar Index: Slightly strengthened to 98.457, with PPI hot data combined with the new Federal Reserve Chairman's appointment boosting dollar safe-haven buying.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: -1.27%, currently around $79,670, PPI data triggered concerns about interest rate hikes, leading to a brief dip to $78,000 before stabilizing slightly, overall still in a high-level fluctuation;
• ETH: -0.58%, currently around $2,269;
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: -1.2% to $2.74 trillion;
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24 hours approximately $375 million, with long positions liquidated around $310 million;
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price around $79,630, with a clear boundary for long and short liquidations, a large number of high-leverage short liquidation points accumulated in the $80,000-$82,000 range, if it continues to surge, it may trigger a chain reaction of short squeezes. Liquidation of long positions mainly concentrated around the $78,000 line, but overall scale is weaker than the short positions above, indicating a short-term market bias towards "sweeping liquidity upwards."

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $346 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $14 million yesterday;
• BTC Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday's spot outflow was about $212 million, with contract net outflow of about $802 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 0.14%, at 49,693.20 points, defensive sectors dragged down, with continuous slight adjustments;
• S&P 500: Up 0.58%, at 7,444.25 points, reaching a new historical high, led by technology and growth stocks;
• Nasdaq: Up 1.20%, at 26,402.34 points, reaching a new historical high, with chip stocks rebounding strongly as the main driving factor.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Up 2.29%, around $226, with sustained high demand for AI;
• Google (GOOGL): Up 3.94%, around $402, with strong performance in search and cloud services;
• Apple (AAPL): Up 1.38%, around $298, with stable hardware ecosystem;
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 0.63%, around $415, with short-term profit-taking;
• Amazon (AMZN): Up 1.62%, around $270, driven by e-commerce and cloud services;
• Meta (META): Up 2.26%, around $616, with advertising revenue exceeding expectations;
• Tesla (TSLA): Up 2.73%, around $436, with progress in autonomous driving boosting confidence. Overall, most of the seven giants rose, with the AI theme continuing to dominate the market, and NVIDIA and Google performing the most prominently.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor/Chip Sector rose over 2%

• Representative stocks: NVIDIA up 2.29%, Cisco surged 19% after hours;
• Driving factors: Significant upward revision of AI orders combined with accelerated global computing power demand, continuing the logic of sector valuation reassessment.

Chinese Concept Stocks collectively rebounded over 7%

• Representative stocks: Century Internet rose over 25%;
• Driving factors: Strategic investors entering the market combined with expectations of high-level interactions between China and the U.S., leading to a recovery in risk appetite.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Cisco (CSCO) - AI Orders Surge Exceeding Expectations

Event Overview: Cisco's last fiscal quarter revenue was $15.8 billion, and adjusted EPS was $1.06, both slightly exceeding expectations; fourth fiscal quarter revenue guidance is $16.7-16.9 billion, higher than market expectations by 5.6%-6.8%; annual AI orders from hyperscale cloud service providers are expected to reach $9 billion, an upward revision of 80% from previous estimates, with $5.3 billion already realized. The company also announced a restructuring plan, intending to lay off nearly 4,000 employees to focus on its AI strategy. Market Interpretation: Institutions are generally optimistic about its AI transformation effectiveness, and the significant upward revision of orders highlights its leading position in the data center networking field, with the stock price surging nearly 19% in after-hours trading. Investment Insight: The AI capital expenditure cycle is still in its early stages, and Cisco is accelerating its strategic focus through restructuring, enhancing long-term growth certainty. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent progress of AI order realization.

2. Cerebras Systems (CBRS) - IPO Pricing Repeatedly Adjusted, Valuation Approaching $49 Billion

Event Overview: AI chip manufacturer Cerebras has seen explosive demand for its IPO, attracting over 20 times oversubscription, with an expected pricing of $185 per share, higher than the previous range of $150-160; prior adjustments have been made to the issuance range and number of shares, with valuation expected to approach $49 billion. Arm and SoftBank previously attempted to acquire it but were rejected. Market Interpretation: Wall Street is extremely optimistic about the demand for AI infrastructure chips, and Cerebras' unique large chip technology has garnered institutional interest. Investment Insight: Against the backdrop of AI computing power shortages, Cerebras' listing may become a new benchmark for the semiconductor sector, with high short-term heat but attention needed on secondary market volatility.

3. AMD - 13F Filing Reveals Quantum and Semiconductor Investment Layout

Event Overview: AMD's latest 13F shows a significant increase in holdings of Marvell Technology, while also entering the quantum computing field, further expanding its AI and advanced process landscape. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this move strengthens AMD's competitiveness in the data center and high-performance computing sectors, creating differentiated competition with NVIDIA. Investment Insight: AMD is strategically investing in cutting-edge technologies, with long-term potential to share in the AI and quantum computing dividends, making it suitable to monitor its ecosystem expansion progress.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Cointelegraph reports that Société Générale will deploy euro and dollar stablecoins EURCV and USDCV on the Canton Network through its digital asset subsidiary SG-FORGE for tokenized collateral, repurchase financing, and institutional settlement.

2. The monthly trading volume of prediction market Polymarket decreased by about 8.9% in April to $10.2 billion, marking the first month-on-month decline since last August. Its competitor Kalshi's trading volume in April, however, grew by about 13% to $14.8 billion.

3. The new chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Mike Selig, stated that during his tenure, the CFTC is ready to regulate new frontiers in finance. His Innovation Task Force is advancing related work, aiming to provide clear regulatory and compliance pathways for next-generation financial and technological innovations such as blockchain technology, AI, and prediction markets, attracting relevant projects to choose to build and operate in the U.S.

4. BitGo data shows that the supply held by Bitcoin "belief buyers" has surged to nearly 4 million BTC, a 300% increase since the end of 2025, with this "belief" capital valued at approximately $320 billion at the current price of around $80,000.

5. Japan's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Metaplanet, has postponed its preferred stock listing plan. CEO Simon Gerovich stated that the underdeveloped Japanese preferred stock market, regulatory rules requiring preferred dividends to be supported by sustainable cash flow, and the company's plan to pay dividends monthly, which is far more frequent than the typical once or twice a year in the Japanese market, are the main reasons for the delay.

6. The Block reports that Fidelity International has launched its first tokenized fund, FILQ, which is an on-chain version of its existing multi-billion dollar institutional liquidity fund, offering 24/7 trading. Moody's has awarded the fund the highest AAA-mf rating.

7. The U.S. Senate confirmed Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman with a vote of 54 to 45. The Senate had previously approved Warsh as a Federal Reserve Governor on the 12th for a 14-year term. With the chairman's appointment approved on the 13th, Warsh will officially take office after completing the relevant signing procedures at the White House, succeeding the current chairman Powell, whose term ends this Friday (May 15).

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|----------|------| | 08:30 | U.S. | April Retail Sales | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | 08:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 08:30 | U.S. | April Import Price Index | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 10:00 | U.S. | March Business Inventories | ⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

May 14 (Thursday)

1. Trump's visit to China; the U.S. government invites CEOs from NVIDIA, Apple, ExxonMobil, Boeing, etc. to accompany; ★★★★★
2. U.S. stock Applied Materials (AMAT) to announce earnings after hours, Cerebras Systems expected to list on Nasdaq;
3. New York Fed President Williams to speak (Eastern Time afternoon), focusing on his latest statements on inflation and policy path.

May 15 (Friday)

1. Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman officially ends, Warsh expected to take over;
2. Deadline for institutional 13F holdings reporting, Berkshire, Duan Yongping, and others will disclose their latest U.S. stock holdings.

*This week's core themes in the U.S. stock market revolve around Powell's term ending and Warsh's succession, U.S. CPI/PPI data, the possibility of Trump's visit to China, and earnings reports from Circle, Oklo, AMAT, etc., with expectations of increased market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Goldman Sachs and other investment banks point out that the U.S. April PPI exceeded expectations, combined with the change in Federal Reserve Chair, raising the short-term interest rate hike probability to around 50%, which may continue to exert upward pressure on bond market yields, thereby suppressing risk assets. However, Trump's visit to China signals a thaw in U.S.-China relations, which is expected to alleviate concerns about trade friction, benefiting the global supply chain and technology stocks. In the medium to long term, OPEC's significant production cuts support oil prices, and gold, as a safe-haven asset, still holds allocation value; although the cryptocurrency market is under short-term pressure, institutional ETF holdings have not shown large-scale withdrawals, with strong support around $78,000 for BTC, suggesting attention to retail sales data for further guidance on Federal Reserve expectations. Overall, the market is in a window of intertwined policy uncertainty and event-driven dynamics, with volatility likely to remain high.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with manual verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data.