BIT Research Report | The New Space Economy in the US Stock Market: From "Science Fiction" to "Hard Currency"
In 2026, space is no longer a government laboratory but a cash machine for Wall Street. With SpaceX launching its epic IPO, the space economy officially enters the first year of "valuation reconstruction."Key Data: $626 billion scale in 2025 · UFO ETF annual return +153% · SpaceX target valuation $1.75 trillion · RKLB one-year return +250%
I. Investment Core: Five Gold Mines of the Space Economy
Do not confuse all "flying" companies. Understanding the logic of the sector is more important than stock selection before researching individual stocks:
1. Launch Services ------ "Space Delivery"
Business Model: Delivering payloads into orbit, charged per launch.
Risk Level: High (engineering failure risk, a single failure can impact contracts for years).
Representative Companies: SpaceX (monopoly position), Rocket Lab (RKLB).
2. Satellite Communication and Broadband ------ "Orbital Operators"
Business Model: Stable subscription model, providing broadband connectivity globally, excellent cash flow.
Risk Level: Medium (high initial capital investment, but deep moat).
Representative Companies: SpaceX (Starlink), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS).
3. Earth Observation ------ "Space Big Data SaaS"
Business Model: Daily imaging and selling data, targeting government, agriculture, and defense.
Risk Level: Low (high revenue expectations, very low marginal costs).
Representative Companies: Planet Labs (PL).
4. Defense and Security ------ "Hard Currency Infrastructure"
Business Model: Long-term government contracts, providing missile warning, GPS, and military satellites.
Risk Level: Very Low (strong hedging properties, supported by national strategy).
Representative Companies: LMT, NOC, LHX.
5. Space Infrastructure ------ "Long-term Exploration"
Business Model: Building lunar landers, in-orbit services, and other forward-looking hardware.
Risk Level: Very High (currently in pure cash-burning phase, reliant on government funding timelines).
Representative Companies: Intuitive Machines (LUNR).
II. Why is the Space Sector Entering a Highlight Moment?
Space has shifted from a government-exclusive domain to a commercially profitable field. A breakthrough in engineering has reduced the cost of entering orbit by 95%.
Scale Explosion: The global space economy has reached $626 billion. McKinsey predicts it will reach $1.8 trillion by 2035.
Core Driver: Reusable rockets - Falcon 9 has completed over 640 launches as of April 2026, fundamentally changing the economic model.
Satellite Broadband Demand: 3 billion people globally lack internet access, and satellite constellations are the only large-scale coverage solution.
SpaceX IPO Effect: The IPO application in April 2026 has drawn mainstream institutional investors' attention to this sector.
III. SpaceX IPO: What It Is and Why It Matters
Confidential application submitted on April 1, 2026, aiming to complete one of the largest IPOs in history on Nasdaq.
Financial Performance: Total revenue of approximately $15-16 billion in 2025, EBITDA of about $8 billion. Starlink global users exceed 10 million, with a profit margin of up to 63%.
Valuation Warning: $1.75 trillion corresponds to a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 87 times. This premium reflects the market's extreme optimism about the integration of "Starship" and xAI.
DXYZ Special Warning: Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) has long traded at a premium of about 50% above NAV. After SpaceX goes public, DXYZ's scarcity may disappear, potentially facing significant selling pressure.
IV. In-depth Analysis of Key Listed Companies
Rocket Lab (RKLB):
2025 revenue of $602 million (+38%), order backlog reaches $1.85 billion (+73%).
Highlights: Neutron rocket is the core of competition. Current free cash flow is -$322 million, still in the capital investment phase.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS):
2026 revenue guidance of $150 to $200 million, with major partners like AT&T and Vodafone.
Highlights: Validating direct satellite connection technology for regular mobile phones.
Planet Labs (PL):
FY2026 revenue reaches a record $307.7 million, with recurring revenue accounting for 98%.
Highlights: A typical software-driven aerospace company, with a very solid foundation in government contracts.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR):
Providing transportation for NASA's Artemis program, with an order backlog of $943 million.
Highlights: Extremely high stock price volatility, mainly fluctuating with NASA mission milestones.
V. Configuration Tools: Space-themed ETFs
UFO (Procure Space ETF): Highest purity. One-year return +153%. Management fee 0.94%. Expected to become its core holding after SpaceX goes public.
ARKX (ARK Space Exploration): Actively managed. One-year return +74.4%. More focused on the intersection of aerospace, AI, and big data.
ITA (iShares Aerospace & Defense): Conservative choice. Primarily consists of traditional military giants like Boeing and Lockheed Martin, with significantly lower volatility.
VI. Investment Risks and Key Catalysts for 2026
Core Risks
Valuation Bubble: Both RKLB and SpaceX are trading at extremely high revenue multiples, with good news already fully priced in.
Equity Dilution: Most early-stage companies finance through issuing new shares, leading to dilution of existing shareholders' equity.
Lock-up Period: The lock-up period after SpaceX's IPO (September to December 2026) may trigger additional market supply.
Key Catalysts for 2026
SpaceX S-1 Prospectus: Will publicly disclose audited financial statements and detailed Starlink data for the first time.
Neutron Rocket Development: Whether RKLB can truly break SpaceX's monopoly in the medium to large payload market.
ASTS Revenue Climb: Validating the commercial loop of the direct mobile connection business.
Summary:
For investors with a more conservative risk appetite, it is usually advisable to first understand this sector through broad ETFs or large mature defense companies before considering individual pure space companies.
For investors with a higher tolerance for volatility and a longer time horizon, deeper research into individual stocks like Rocket Lab or AST SpaceMobile can be pursued, but it is essential to understand that greater upside potential comes with greater downside risk.
Investors focusing on the speculative end of the sector are researching lunar infrastructure or early launch companies, essentially making long-term judgments about which companies will continue to operate and grow in five to ten years, requiring a completely different analytical framework from studying profitable, cash-rich mature enterprises.
Investors engaging with tools like DXYZ should take the time to understand the structure of the tools they are researching before drawing any conclusions. The market price of financial instruments can significantly differ from the value of their underlying assets in certain structures.
Before researching specific companies, clarifying which type of investor you belong to helps ensure you are focusing on the right information and asking the right questions.
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Data as of April 2026. Data sources include Novaspace (12th edition of the Space Economy Report and 24th edition of the Government Space Program Report), the Space Foundation (Q2 2025 report), and industry data from OrbitalRadar.com. Company fundamentals and market analysis combine in-depth reports from 24/7 Wall St., The Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha, Morningstar, and Blockonomi on Rocket Lab, SpaceX, and DXYZ; financial forecasts and launch records reference Starlink predictions from Quilty Space, Falcon and Electron launch archives from Wikipedia, and official financial reports from Rocket Lab and Planet Labs. Additionally, this report incorporates the latest information on the space sector, ETF trends, and Starlink financial data from WTOP, ETF Trends, Procure ETFs, and TradingKey.
Disclaimer: This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Clients should consult qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
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