Bitget UEX Daily Report | Iran's three-stage negotiation path is clear; DeepSeek input cache significantly reduced in price; Google, Microsoft, and others will announce their financial reports this week (April 27, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

U.S. Department of Justice Ends Investigation into Federal Reserve Building Renovation

• The U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia has officially concluded its criminal investigation into the cost overruns of the Federal Reserve building project, which involved taxpayer expenditures of billions of dollars; the termination of the investigation may clear the way for Senate approval of Kevin Warsh, the next Federal Reserve Chairman nominated by Trump.
• The Federal Reserve's Inspector General will continue an internal review, and prosecutors stated that the investigation could be reopened at any time if necessary. This move alleviates uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's internal governance and helps stabilize market expectations for the continuity of monetary policy, providing short-term benefits for the bond market and pricing of risk assets.

International Commodities

Iran Proposes Three-Phase Negotiation Plan; Middle East Risk Premium Path Becomes Clear

• Iran has submitted a three-phase proposal to the U.S. through intermediaries: the first phase involves completely ending the war and obtaining guarantees against future attacks on Iran and Lebanon; the second phase focuses on managing the Strait of Hormuz; the third phase will only involve discussions on nuclear issues, with no talks on nuclear matters until agreements are reached in the first two phases.
• Trump stated that if Iran wants to talk, they can call directly, believing that the war will end soon. JPMorgan noted that the negotiation path has become clear, with macro focus shifting from geopolitical risk premiums to residual "stagflation" risks; non-linear supply risks for commodities still exist but have eased in stages, and short-term pressure on oil prices has lessened.

Macroeconomic Policy

DeepSeek Input Cache Prices Significantly Reduced

• DeepSeek's official website announced that starting today, the input cache hit price has been reduced to one-tenth of the launch price, with deepseek-v4-pro available at a limited-time discount of 75% (valid until May 5, 2026), and the cost of V4-Pro input (cache hit) has dropped to 0.025 yuan per million tokens.
• Goldman Sachs believes that V4 has significantly compressed long context costs through innovative mixed attention architecture, betting that API pricing will further decline after the mass production of Huawei's Ascend 950, and that domestic AI competition will shift towards programming and multimodal differentiation. This move strengthens the cost competitiveness of Chinese AI models, accelerates the application of intelligent agents, and benefits long-term demand in cloud computing and data centers.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Around $4,677 per ounce, down about 0.62% in 24 hours, influenced by oil price fluctuations and negotiation progress; short-term stagflation concerns still support gold prices, but upward momentum has temporarily stalled.
• Spot Silver: Around $75 per ounce, down about 0.96% in 24 hours, with concerns over industrial demand compounded by an overall pullback in precious metals.
• WTI Crude Oil: $96.20 per barrel, up about 1.91% in 24 hours, with a clear negotiation path from Iran easing supply disruption concerns, though geopolitical aftershocks remain.
• Brent Crude Oil: Around $107 per barrel, up about 2% in 24 hours, with management of the Strait of Hormuz becoming the focus of the second phase.
• U.S. Dollar Index: Boosted by the end of the Federal Reserve investigation and negotiation progress, slightly strengthened to 98.61, suppressing the performance of non-U.S. assets.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $78,623, up about 1.43% in 24 hours, with a slight rebound for two consecutive days.
• ETH: Approximately $2,367, up about 2.21% in 24 hours, following the market rebound.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.7 trillion, up about 1.3% in 24 hours, driven by a warming risk appetite.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidations of about $153 million in 24 hours, with short liquidations of about $119 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $78,600; if it breaks above the $79k area, a dense short liquidation zone could trigger a chain "short squeeze" pushing prices further up. However, there is still a significant amount of long leverage accumulated between $77k and $78k, and if it falls back, it could quickly trigger long liquidations, resulting in severe two-way volatility.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: 49,230.71 points, down 0.16%, with a weak continuous trend, and energy-sensitive sectors dragged down by oil prices.
• S&P 500: 7,165.08 points, up 0.80%, reaching a new historical high, with significant contributions from technology-weighted stocks.
• Nasdaq: 24,836.60 points, up 1.63%, reaching new highs for several consecutive days, driven significantly by AI and semiconductor sectors.

Tech Giants Dynamics

As of last Friday's close:

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Up 4.32%, price reached a new high, market cap surpassed $5 trillion, with continued expectations for AI capital expenditures.
• Amazon (AMZN): Up 3.49%, with strong demand for cloud services and AI infrastructure.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Up 2.13%, supported by Azure cloud growth and expectations for OpenAI collaboration.
• Meta (META): Up 2.41%, with accelerated advertising business and AI application deployment.
• Google (GOOGL): Up 1.63%, plans to invest up to $40 billion to deepen cooperation with Anthropic.
• Apple (AAPL): Down 0.87%, with news of the new CEO appointment not fully offsetting growth concerns.
• Tesla (TSLA): Slight fluctuations, with increased focus on autonomous driving and energy business. Overall, most of the seven major tech giants rose, driven by the nearing verification of AI capital expenditures and easing geopolitical risks.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor Sector rose over 3%

• Representative stocks: NVIDIA (NVDA) rose 4.32%, AMD (AMD) surged 14%
• Driving factors: Continued high expectations for AI computing power and data center capital expenditures, Intel's earnings report significantly exceeded expectations and raised Q2 guidance, triggering confidence resonance across the entire semiconductor supply chain. AMD, as a key player in data center CPUs, directly benefits from the optimistic sentiment in the industry. Although Burry warned that semiconductor valuations have entered an overbought range, current market risk appetite has increased, and the technical bullish arrangement remains relatively intact. This week's earnings season for tech giants will serve as an important verification period for actual AI spending.

Chinese Concept Stocks rose 2.62%

• Representative stocks: Baidu (BIDU) rose over 5%, Xpeng Motors (XPEV) rose over 4%
• Driving factors: Iran proposed a clear three-phase negotiation plan, significantly reducing geopolitical risk premiums, and global risk appetite has notably warmed; combined with DeepSeek's substantial reduction in AI model input cache prices, this has strengthened the cost competitiveness of Chinese AI technology. Baidu, as a leader in AI large models and search, benefits from expectations of accelerated domestic intelligent agent applications; Xpeng Motors has shown resilience in intelligent driving technology and overseas market layout. Chinese concept tech assets are experiencing a valuation recovery under the resonance of internal and external favorable factors.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. NVIDIA (NVDA) - Market Cap Returns to $5 Trillion Threshold

Event Overview: On April 24 (last Friday), NVIDIA's stock price rose 4.3% to close at $208.27, successfully surpassing a market cap of $5 trillion, once again becoming the most valuable publicly traded company in the world. The cumulative increase this year has exceeded 12%. As a core supplier of AI computing power, the company continues to benefit from large-scale capital expenditures by hyperscalers. This week, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta will release earnings reports, and their guidance on AI infrastructure and capital expenditures will be key catalysts for the market's assessment of NVIDIA's mid-term demand. Market Interpretation: Multiple institutions believe that although short-term valuations are high and technical indicators show overbought signals, NVIDIA's absolute dominance in the AI chip sector is unlikely to be shaken in the short term. The fundamentals are driven by strong demand from data centers, and the shipment pace of the Blackwell architecture is good. Analysts generally raise their full-year revenue expectations, emphasizing its moat advantage in the AI training and inference market. Investment Insight: The AI capital expenditure verification window is about to open; investors are advised to look for opportunities to gradually position themselves amid earnings season volatility, focusing on the actual execution of capital expenditures by major companies.

2. Google (GOOGL) - Plans to Invest Up to $40 Billion in Anthropic

Event Overview: Google's parent company Alphabet announced plans to invest up to $40 billion in AI startup Anthropic, with an initial confirmed investment of $1 billion, and the subsequent $30 billion will be injected in phases based on Anthropic achieving specific performance milestones. This investment values Anthropic at approximately $350 billion to $380 billion, primarily to support its large-scale expansion of computing infrastructure. Anthropic's recently launched Claude Code programming agent product has made significant breakthroughs, further accelerating its commercialization process. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally view Google's deepening strategic cooperation with Anthropic positively, forming a multi-model layout advantage in the fierce AI competition while strengthening its competitiveness in search, cloud services, and enterprise AI solutions. Investment banks like Goldman Sachs maintain a preferred recommendation for Google's cloud computing sector, believing this move will help counter the Microsoft-OpenAI alliance. Investment Insight: The deep binding of the AI ecosystem will provide new momentum for Google's long-term growth; it is recommended to continuously track the achievement of Anthropic's milestones and the subsequent rhythm of capital expenditure execution.

3. Space Force "Iron Dome" Program - 12 Companies Awarded $3.2 Billion Contracts

Event Overview: The U.S. Space Force announced on April 24 that it has awarded a total of 20 contracts worth up to $3.2 billion to 12 companies, including SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Anduril, for the development of prototypes for space-based missile interception systems. This is a key component of the Trump administration's "Iron Dome" missile defense program, aimed at demonstrating a combat-capable integrated combat system by 2028. The program aims to build a multi-layer missile defense network to effectively respond to threats from ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and drones. Market Interpretation: The defense aerospace sector has received substantial orders, boosting confidence among institutions, which believe that the advancement of the "Iron Dome" program will provide long-term stable income sources for related defense contractors in the context of geopolitical risks not being fully resolved. The participation of emerging companies like SpaceX also reflects the Pentagon's trend of accelerating the adoption of commercial innovative technologies. Investment Insight: Although the negotiation path in the Middle East is gradually becoming clear, the defense technology sector still possesses strong defensive attributes, making it suitable for hedging configurations in portfolios, with a focus on the subsequent execution progress of contracts and quarterly order growth of related companies.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. A whale, after being inactive for two years, deposited 300 Bitcoins (worth $23.4 million) into Binance. These 300 Bitcoins were withdrawn from the Bitfinex exchange three years ago when the price of Bitcoin was $19,329. Now, this whale holds a profit of $17.6 million.

2. Strategy founder Michael Saylor released information related to Bitcoin Tracker yesterday, captioned: "The ₿eat Goes On." According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings the day after relevant news is released.

3. Data: Tokens such as SUI, JUP, and SIGN will see large unlocks this week, with SUI unlocking valued at approximately $40 million.

4. VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush wrote an analysis stating that Bitcoin has shown two historically bullish signals: negative funding rates and a decline in hash rate concentration, while volatility has cooled. With the easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, Bitcoin's realized volatility has dropped from 56% to 41%, while the 7-day average funding rate has turned negative to -1.8%, marking the lowest level since 2023. Historically, negative funding rates typically indicate strong future returns: since 2020, the average return of Bitcoin during periods of negative funding rates has been +11.5%, while the overall return has been +4.5%, with a hit rate of 77%. Funding rates below -5% have brought +19.4% returns over a 30-day period. Additionally, computing power has dropped to the 16th percentile over the past 30 days, marking the most concentrated decline since the mining ban in 2021. In the past seven instances of computing power decline, six saw Bitcoin prices rise 90 days later, with a median increase of +37.7%.

5. El Salvador has accumulated 8 Bitcoins in the past 7 days and 31 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 7,633.37 Bitcoins, valued at $624 million.

6. On-chain analysis platform Arkham released monitoring data on the X platform indicating that the Ethereum Foundation has unstaked approximately $48.9 million worth of ETH. On-chain operations show that the Ethereum Foundation has deposited its held WSTETH into Lido's unstETH unstaking contract, and upon completion of the unlocking process, it will receive the corresponding amount of ETH in spot.

The current cryptocurrency market is focused on the subsequent movements of this asset, with heightened attention on whether the Ethereum Foundation will sell the unlocked ETH. Previously, the Ethereum Foundation has sold ETH multiple times for operational fund management, raising ongoing market concerns about potential selling pressure on ETH.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|--------------|-----| | 20:30 | U.S. | March Durable Goods Orders | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 21:00 | U.S. | April Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | ⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

• Tech Giants Earnings Reports: On April 30 at midnight (UTC+8), Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release reports on the same day, with the market focusing on AI capital expenditures and cloud revenue growth rates.
• Federal Reserve Related: There may be new updates on Kevin Warsh's nomination progress; watch for Senate statements.

Institutional Views:

JPMorgan's Global Market Strategy team stated that although the situation in the Middle East has not been fully resolved, the negotiation path has become significantly clearer, and the macro focus is shifting from geopolitical risk premiums to residual "stagflation" pressures. Within this framework, stock market differentiation will further intensify: funds are more inclined towards structurally sensitive sectors that can continue to deliver growth, especially related to AI and "security/resilience" investments; weights in commodities and pure cyclical sectors may be reduced. Goldman Sachs also views the cost advantages of AI models like DeepSeek positively, believing they will accelerate the application of intelligent agents and drive demand for cloud computing. Overall, institutions maintain an overweight view on the tech and AI chain, while suggesting attention to the verification results of capital expenditures from tech giants this week. The easing of geopolitical risks combined with ETF fund inflows provides temporary support for the cryptocurrency market, but residual stagflation risks still need to be monitored.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.