BIT Research Report | AI Meets SaaS: Who is the Tear of the Era, and Who is Turning the Tide Against the Wind?

Key Data: Global SaaS market (2025) approximately $408 billion | SaaS sector market value evaporated by about $2 trillion | IGV software ETF down about 22% year-to-date | Salesforce fiscal year 2026 revenue $41.5 billion | ServiceNow Q1 2026 revenue $3.77 billion

I. SaaSpocalypse: Defining a Historic Event for 2026

At the beginning of 2026, Wall Street experienced the largest AI-driven valuation reconstruction in software history.

Event Timeline:

• January 12: Anthropic released Claude Cowork, a desktop AI product capable of autonomously executing multi-step workflows across applications.

• January 30: Anthropic open-sourced 11 business plugins covering legal, finance, marketing, sales, and customer support.

• February 3-5: Market crash. Within 48 hours, the SaaS sector evaporated $285 billion in market value.

Core Logic: Traditional SaaS charges per seat. If 10 AI agents can do the work of 100 employees, a company only needs 10 Salesforce seats instead of 100. Jason Lemkin's saying spread widely on Wall Street: "If 10 AI agents can do the work of 100 reps, you need 10 Salesforce seats, not 100."

Scale of Losses: Cumulative market value loss reached $1 to $2 trillion (calculated from peak). Thomson Reuters recorded the largest single-day drop, with LegalZoom plummeting nearly 20%. The forward P/E ratio of the software sector compressed from a peak of about 84 times to 22.7 times.

II. This is Not the End of SaaS, but the Beginning of Transformation?

Three Reasons for Optimism:

Proprietary Data Moat: General AI agents cannot replace specialized agents trained on five years of a company's own CRM data. Salesforce's data is within Salesforce, and ServiceNow's ticket history is within ServiceNow—this is an asset that general AI cannot take away.

Migration Costs Underestimated by the Market: Replacing a deeply embedded enterprise software system means years of cycles, millions of dollars in costs, and retraining thousands of employees. SaaStr founder Jason Lemkin pointed out: Building a functional application with AI programming tools only completes about 2% of the workload required to operate an enterprise software platform.

Compliance and Governance Necessity: In regulated industries like banking, healthcare, and government, the value of enterprise software is not just automation—it's also audit trails, compliance records, and access controls. General AI agents currently cannot replace this functional layer.

Key Data Rebuttal: At the moment of the most intense sell-off, ServiceNow exceeded performance guidance for the ninth consecutive time, with revenue growth accelerating to 22%. Salesforce recorded $41.5 billion in revenue for the year. HubSpot maintained a 19% growth rate. These are not numbers from an industry collapse.

III. How SaaS Companies Counterattack: Three Strategic Pillars

Building Proprietary AI Agents: Train dedicated agents on proprietary platform data instead of waiting for third-party agents to replicate their functions. Agentforce runs on Salesforce's CRM data, and Now Assist runs on ServiceNow's ticket data—this is an advantage that general AI cannot replicate.

Pricing Model Transformation: Shift from "per head" pricing to "per outcome" pricing. In Q1 2026, half of ServiceNow's net new business was achieved through non-seat pricing models—this is the most important structural data point for the entire sector. Goldman Sachs named the new model "Results-as-a-Service."

Becoming the AI Governance Layer: Large enterprises need a trusted platform to unify management, auditing, and assurance of all AI agents' behaviors. ServiceNow's "AI Control Tower" and Salesforce's "Agentforce Trust Layer" are competing for this critical infrastructure positioning.

IV. Key Public Companies to Watch

1. Salesforce (CRM) ------ "Agentforce Bet"

• Fiscal year 2026 revenue $41.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%.

• Agentforce independent ARR: $800 million, a year-on-year increase of 169%; over 29,000 contracts signed.

• RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations) reached $72.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, proving that customers have not churned.

• Approved $50 billion stock buyback.

• Core Focus: Can Agentforce independently drive organic acceleration in fiscal year 2027—after stripping out Informatica's $1.1 billion contribution?

2. ServiceNow (NOW) ------ "AI Control Tower"

• Q1 2026 revenue $3.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22% (exceeding guidance for the ninth consecutive time).

• Now Assist ACV target raised from $1 billion to $1.5 billion, a quarterly increase of 50%.

• Renewal rate: 97%, stable for six consecutive quarters.

• Half of the net new business was achieved through non-seat pricing.

• CEO McDermott's original words: "That will exceed $1.5 billion, and we need to raise it by more than $500 million. It's simply unbelievable."

• Core Focus: The model transformation's exemplary validation is the most worthy data source for benchmarking the entire sector.

3. HubSpot (HUBS) ------ "Midfield Defense"

• 2025 full-year revenue $3.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%; stock price halved from peak by 70% to 80%.

• Bulls: Mid-sized enterprise customers are less likely to build AI themselves; HubSpot's integrated ease of use remains a differentiated advantage.

• Bears: Klarna has publicly announced replacing Salesforce contracts with AI; if this trend spreads to mid-sized enterprises, structural pressure will be unavoidable.

4. Workday (WDAY) ------ "HR Data Moat"

• Employee data, payroll, talent profiles—AI needs Workday's data for any human resource planning.

• Core Focus: Compliance and regulatory requirements make HR software one of the most difficult SaaS categories to replace.

V. Pricing Revolution of 2026: The End of the Seat Era

Currently, three models are competing across the industry:

• Consumption-based Billing: Charges based on the number of queries/tasks/tokens, with more flexible but higher volatility revenue.

• Outcome-based Billing (Results-as-a-Service): Charges based on completed tickets, reviewed contracts, and generated leads—Goldman Sachs believes this is the endgame form.

• Hybrid Billing: Seat licenses retain platform access, with incremental charges for AI work units—currently adopted by the most enterprises.

Most Important Leading Indicator: Who can be the first to report a quarter where AI outcome revenue truly surpasses its replaced seat revenue—this will be a historic data point defining the future valuation logic of the entire sector.

VI. Investment Risk Warning

Not all SaaS will survive: Project management, document tools, simple marketing automation—these are the repetitive, rule-based tasks that AI agents will first conquer. ERP, HR, compliance infrastructure—these have significantly stronger defenses due to migration costs and regulatory requirements. Gartner predicts that by 2030, 35% of SaaS single-point tools will be replaced by AI agents, while 65% will continue to survive, but in a changed form.

Valuation compression may not be over: The forward P/E ratio of the software sector has compressed from 84 times to 22.7 times, but if the disruption process outpaces the adaptation speed, there is still downside potential. Distinguishing between "the sector is cheap" and "the sector should be cheap" is the most important judgment at present.

Self-built Threat: AI programming tools significantly enhance the feasibility of large enterprises building custom software. Klarna's case is not an isolated example; it is a trend signal worth continuous tracking.

Summary

Market participants leaning towards a conservative style can observe changes in industry fundamentals from ServiceNow and the IGV ETF track; observers with a growth perspective can focus on tracking whether Salesforce's Agentforce business can achieve sustainable organic growth momentum. SaaS in 2026 is no longer about selling seats, but about which platform makes enterprises truly indispensable—whether the employees are human or agents.

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Data as of April 2026. Sources include: Salesforce Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, February 25, 2026), ServiceNow Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, April 22, 2026), HubSpot Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, February 11, 2026), FinancialContent, Taskade, NxCode, Humai Blog, Goldman Sachs "Results-as-a-Service" research report, JPMorgan software sector analysis, Gartner IT spending forecasts, Precedence Research, Cirra AI, Fortune, 24/7 Wall St., Redevolution, TechStartups.

Disclaimer: This report is written by BIT's U.S. stock business invited analyst Jun, for reference only. The individual stocks and ETFs mentioned are only for industry case studies and public financial data analysis, and do not constitute any investment advice, stock recommendations, or trading inducements. Historical performance and institutional forecasts are for reference only and do not represent future market performance or return expectations; past performance does not guarantee future returns. Investment involves risks, including the possibility of principal loss. Clients should consult qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions.