Bitget Dialogue with Frank: From Internet Product Manager to Cross-Market Investor, 2 Principles of a 13-Year Trend Investor Across Cycles

U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies are the two asset classes currently attracting the most attention from global investors. However, few people have established a mature trading system in both markets.

Today, we invite Frank (@qinbafrank), a seasoned investor who entered the U.S. stock market in 2013. He was previously an internet product manager before transitioning to a VC partner, and entered the cryptocurrency market in 2017. Having experienced the ICO boom, deep bear markets, and multiple cycles of bull and bear, he has built a unique cross-market investment framework between U.S. stocks and the crypto space.

From Internet Product Manager to Investor: The First Bucket of Gold in the Internet Circle

Frank's investment journey began in the internet industry. Around 2013, he was still working as a product manager at an internet company. Friends around him started discussing U.S. stocks—some had bought shares of 360 early on, while others heavily invested in Tesla when it went public in 2012, making a significant profit.

This atmosphere motivated him: "People in the internet industry have a natural advantage when it comes to tech stocks. Being in the internet industry, we have insights into products and operations, allowing us to understand what a company is doing and how well it is doing. At the same time, the atmosphere of investing in internet company stocks is very strong."

With this confidence, he bought his first stock—Facebook. The logic was clear: having acquired Instagram and WhatsApp, this company was undoubtedly a leader in the social sector. Frank also invested in "NVIDIA at a $3 cost," but he exited after making three times his investment, leaving him with a lasting impression of regret for not thinking bigger.

From 2013 to 2015, Frank accumulated his first bucket of gold in his investment career. However, he admitted that this phase was more about "reaping the benefits of the era"—internet practitioners flocking to tech stocks, making money due to favorable timing and conditions. It wasn't until after 2015 to 2017 that he truly developed a systematic understanding of industry investments.

Encountering Crypto: Eliminating Bias, Entering the Market, and Enduring Deep Bear Markets

Later, Frank transitioned from product manager to entrepreneurship and primary investment. His entrepreneurial partners introduced him to Bitcoin, blockchain, and the world of decentralization, and he had friends working on decentralized social network crypto projects. This led him to seriously consider a question: "Is the internet's dividend really fading?"

In the second half of 2017, Frank eliminated his bias against cryptocurrencies and began entering the crypto industry, catching the tail end of the ICO boom and being motivated by the profit-making effect. He invested in several private placements and ICO projects and encouraged a few friends who were struggling with internet startups to join the crypto industry. He bought $10,000 worth of Bitcoin and $1,000 worth of Ethereum.

However, in 2018, a deep bear market arrived. Frank candidly stated, "It fell terribly," but due to his recognition of the underlying technology—peer-to-peer payments and decentralization—he stayed in the market and continued to compound in the crypto industry.

The Investment Principles Behind Accurate Predictions in U.S. Stocks: Industry Fundamentals + Macro Analysis

What truly transformed Frank's investment framework was the pandemic in 2020. The market experienced severe fluctuations, and he suddenly realized: he had been almost ignorant of macro factors in the past. Fiscal policy, monetary policy, interest rate cycles… these variables had rarely been on his radar, but their impact on the pricing of stocks and cryptocurrencies was far deeper than he had imagined.

"During the pandemic, I spent a lot of time reading books on public finance and monetary economics, slowly gaining a more holistic understanding of macro." The enhancement of his macro awareness, combined with his previous industry investment system, led him to form his own U.S. stock investment framework: "The primary factor for U.S. stocks is industry fundamentals, and the secondary factor is macro."

This ordering directly determined his operational logic: during small adjustments, he would only reduce positions in stocks with good narratives but weak fundamentals, while holding steady on high-quality growth stocks; only when he judged a medium or large adjustment would he consider adjusting the positions of high-quality growth stocks. He also emphasized the differences between U.S. stocks and crypto: "The crypto market moves in tandem with Bitcoin, but the logic of individual U.S. stocks is very strong. Some stocks drop first, some later, and some may have already dropped significantly before the overall market does. One cannot operate individual stocks solely by looking at the overall market; one must consider the specific situation."

In terms of fundamental stock selection, his analysis framework consists of two levels.

• Performance Level: Focus on tracking quarterly revenue, profit, EPS growth, and whether future guidance can continue to exceed expectations.

• Business Level: He places more importance on a company's position within the industry landscape. "Sometimes PE ratios are not always effective; you need to look at business strategy and competitive landscape—whether the company is in a core position or is being squeezed. This determines whether it has scarcity and whether it can support a high premium."

For example, at the end of 2024, he began publicly recommending Palantir (PLTR) on Twitter, with a buy-in cost in the $30-40 billion market cap range, positioning it as "the Lockheed Martin of the AI era." The logic is a direct application of the aforementioned framework: "PLTR has served the U.S. military for over ten years and is the only big data supplier for the military, making it highly irreplaceable. Irreplaceability translates into scarcity, and scarcity supports a high premium."

On the macro level, his method is to outline the factors affecting macroeconomics and their weights at each stage. "The macro framework is not fixed; the main contradictions differ at each stage. In 2025, the focus will be on Trump’s policies; in 2026, it will be on geopolitical conflicts like the Iran situation, as well as government efficiency reforms and Federal Reserve movements."

Frank repeatedly emphasizes: "A sense of cycles is not about prediction, but about perceiving probability distributions." His judgment logic regarding cycles is precisely the application of the aforementioned macro framework.

In January 2025, he made a judgment: the U.S. stock market would face an adjustment. He systematically outlined several key macro variables at that time—the uncertainty of Trump’s policies, the pressure of high valuations, and the Federal Reserve's stance. Trump’s policies were the biggest influencing factor. As he predicted, due to the dual impact of deepseek and tariffs, the U.S. stock market began a medium-level adjustment in February, with the Nasdaq experiencing a maximum drop of 20% and the S&P falling 18%.

At the beginning of 2026, he continued to warn of a "spring robbery market," accurately predicting a 15% correction in the Nasdaq. The core logic had two points: whether the massive capital expenditures of large tech companies could truly translate into profits; and the rising geopolitical risks brought about by the Iran conflict.

Why Trade U.S. Stocks and Crypto on Bitget

When asked why he chose to trade U.S. stocks on Bitget, Frank's answer was straightforward.

"I started writing several tweets in the second half of last year, discussing the very obvious trend of tokenization in the crypto space. Bitget is the most proactive platform embracing this trend of securities tokenization."

For users active in both the crypto and U.S. stock markets, Bitget's U.S. stock feature provides a new option beyond traditional brokers. "Deposits are quick, unlike brokers where transferring and withdrawing funds can take a day or even several days. For those operating in both markets, capital efficiency is very important."

He also observed a deeper trend: as institutional funds and ETFs continue to flow in, the boundaries between the crypto market and traditional financial markets are becoming blurred, and the macro linkage between the two markets is growing stronger. Being able to view both markets in one place is inherently valuable.

Frank's Investment Q&A: Lessons Learned, Advice for Newcomers, and Future Opportunities

Q: What are some of the most painful experiences in your investment career?

Frank: The most heart-wrenching was in 2022. That year, I predicted that a gray rhino was approaching—if oil prices and inflation couldn't be contained, the U.S. stock market would experience a small collapse, and the crypto space would face a major collapse. I saw the risks and started to reduce my positions, but I didn't liquidate. I should have liquidated, but I only reduced my positions, and the remaining positions experienced severe drawdowns.

Because I am essentially a trend investor, not a trader. Traders have very good discipline and risk control; the moment a risk signal appears, they act decisively. But my approach is to slowly buy at the bottom and slowly withdraw at the top. The problem with this approach is that while I saw the risks and built hedges, the remaining positions still faced significant drawdowns.

In 2016, I also paid tuition in the U.S. stock market by trading a Chinese advertising stock, thinking the performance was good, only to find out that the company was exposed for "bullying customers," and it dropped 40% in one or two trading days. Additionally, in 2019 and 2020, I invested heavily in many primary projects in the crypto space, which also resulted in significant losses that I couldn't recover.

Q: What advice do you have for newcomers looking to invest in both U.S. stocks and crypto?

Frank:

• First, strengthen your understanding of macro. From Japan's interest rate hikes in 2024 to the tariff wars in 2025, and the recent Iran situation, market fluctuations triggered by macro factors are becoming more frequent and can even change the pricing of certain assets.

• Second, let go of the idea of making quick money. Opportunities for quick profits in the crypto space are diminishing; the lifecycle of meme coins is extremely short, and the altcoin season may not necessarily come. Many assets have short survival cycles. Look for certainty in assets from a long-term perspective, considering which assets can survive for three to five years. For U.S. stocks, seek targets with solid fundamentals, continuous earnings growth, robust business layouts, and scarcity.

• Third, pay attention to position management and be cautious with leverage. Especially for newcomers who have not yet formed their own trading systems, leveraging carries significant risks.

Q: Which sectors of U.S. stocks are worth paying attention to this year?

Frank:

• First, the space economy. The IPO of SpaceX could be the largest in recent years, and both Musk and Huang Renxun have discussed plans for building space data centers. The competition for space resources among countries is accelerating, and the potential in this sector is vast.

• Second, emerging market index ETFs. The recently popular storage sector, led by South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix, has driven the Korean index upward. Opportunities for industry prosperity spilling over into specific markets like this are worth exploring in emerging market ETFs.

• Third, the energy sector. As geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, the competition for resources among different countries is intensifying, which will continue to drive the revaluation of energy assets.