Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Iran Rejects US Peace Plan, Crude Oil Rises; Surge in AI Infrastructure Investment, US Tech Stocks Reach New Highs (May 11, 2026)

# I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Chicago Fed President Warns of AI Double-Edged Sword Effect

• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee pointed out at the Stanford conference that if AI productivity expectations are realized, it will push up interest rates; if not, it may trigger stagflation.
• Businesses and residents may have already caused economic overheating due to anticipatory consumption and investment.
• Market Impact: Reminds investors that the AI boom is not without risks, and the Federal Reserve's policy path may show significant divergence depending on technological implementation, requiring cautious interest rate expectations.

International Commodities

Saudi Aramco Q1 Profit Exceeds Expectations, Risks of Hormuz Disruption Remain

• Saudi Aramco's adjusted net profit for Q1 2026 reached $33.6 billion, a 26% year-on-year increase, with east-west pipelines operating at full capacity effectively alleviating global energy shocks.
• CEO Amin Nasser warned that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for more than a few weeks, the impact of supply interruptions may extend to 2027.
• Market Impact: Reinforces energy supply uncertainty, intensifying short-term oil price volatility while highlighting the importance of alternative transport routes.

# II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,688/ounce, -0.57%.
• Spot Silver: Approximately $80.2/ounce, -0.12%.
• WTI Crude Oil: $98.82/barrel, +3.56%, with increased volatility due to potential disruptions in Hormuz, and Saudi Aramco's statements further reinforcing supply concerns.
• Brent Crude Oil: $104.6/barrel, +3.35%, moving in tandem, with shipping disruption risks pushing up premiums.
• Dollar Index: 97.84, +0.15%, fluctuating slightly under hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with AI-related uncertainties constraining its movement.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: 24H +1.19%, currently around $881,682, continuing a volatile upward pattern.
• ETH: 24H +1.41%, currently around $2,357.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: 24H +1.9%, total market cap approximately $2.93 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: 24H total liquidation approximately $376 million, with short liquidations around $249 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC's current price is around $81,603, with a large concentration of high-leverage short liquidation zones above $82,000-$83,000. If prices continue to break through, it may trigger a chain liquidation of shorts and amplify upward volatility. Below, there is a dense long leverage area around $79,800-$80,500; if breached, a short-term liquidation of longs and rapid pullback may occur.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 0.02% to 49,609.16 points, continuing slight fluctuations, highlighting defensive attributes.
• S&P 500: Up 0.84% to 7,398.93 points, reaching a new historical high, driven by tech-weighted stocks.
• Nasdaq: Up 1.71% to 26,247.08 points, reaching a new historical high, with a clear drive from the AI infrastructure theme.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): $293.32, up 2.05% (new closing high), with potential Intel outsourcing orders boosting supply chain confidence.
• Microsoft (MSFT): $415.12, down 1.34%, with significant reductions by a well-known hedge fund attracting attention.
• Google (GOOGL): $400.80, up 0.71%, with continued funding favoring AI search and cloud business.
• Amazon (AMZN): $272.68, up 0.56%, with stable performance in e-commerce and cloud services.
• Nvidia (NVDA): $215.20, up 1.75%, with strong demand for AI chips but market beginning to diversify allocations.
• Meta (META): $609.63, down 1.16%, facing competitive pressure in advertising.
• Tesla (TSLA): $428.35, up 4.02%, with improved expectations for electric vehicles and robotics. Core Reason Summary: The investment logic in AI infrastructure is spreading from single chips to the entire supply chain, with funds starting to tilt towards storage, foundry, and diversified hardware.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor Sector up over 10% (many stocks with remarkable gains)

• Representative stocks: Micron Technology up 15.49%, SanDisk up 16.6%, AMD up 11.44%, Intel up 13.96%, Qualcomm up 8.17%.
• Driving Factors: AI data centers evolving from chatbots to intelligent agents, memory chip shortages, and a surge in global AI capital expenditure (ByteDance up 25%) jointly boost the sector, with significant market attention on infrastructure investments "beyond Nvidia."

# III. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. Lumentum (LITE) - The Era of Optical Interconnection Arrives

Event Overview: Lumentum is set to be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index before the US stock market opens on May 18, 2026, replacing Costa (CSGP). As a leader in optical modules, its products are widely used in high-speed interconnections for AI data centers. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this inclusion marks the further establishment of optical communication's strategic position in AI computing networks, with future demand for data center interconnections expected to continue to explode. Investment Insight: AI infrastructure is extending from computing power to transmission links, and optical module companies may welcome a long-term growth window, warranting continuous tracking of orders and technological progress.

2. Intel (INTC) - Apple Outsourcing Orders Materialize

Event Overview: Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary agreement for chip outsourcing, potentially ending TSMC's exclusive position in advanced processes. Market Interpretation: Institutions view this as the strongest endorsement of Intel's outsourcing business turnaround, while alleviating Apple's AI production capacity concerns, reshaping the global advanced process landscape. Investment Insight: The acceleration of the US domestic supply chain security strategy provides room for valuation recovery for local manufacturers like Intel, but execution risks need to be monitored.

3. Palantir (PLTR) - OpenAI/Anthropic Direct Competition

Event Overview: OpenAI is building a data connection platform and replicating Palantir's "frontline deployment engineer" model, with Anthropic also joining the competition, including several former Palantir employees in its team. Market Interpretation: Analyst William Blair notes that the impact of AI giants on Palantir's traditional areas of advantage is intensifying, with a market share battle already underway. Investment Insight: Competition in the data analysis and AI implementation service market is heating up, and Palantir needs to accelerate product iteration to maintain its lead.

4. Microsoft (MSFT) - Hedge Fund Significantly Reduces Holdings

Event Overview: Notable hedge fund TCI has drastically reduced its Microsoft holdings from 10% to 1%, ending nearly a decade of ownership, while increasing its Alphabet stake to 5%. Market Interpretation: The fund believes AI poses a structural threat to Office and Azure, and Microsoft's stock price has fallen over 12% this year. Investment Insight: AI is reshaping the software and cloud service landscape, and traditional giants need to accelerate their transformation; investors should pay attention to the progress of business structural adjustments.

# IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. This week, AVAX, STRK, SEI, and others will see a one-time large token unlock, with AVAX unlocking 1.67 million tokens on May 12, valued at approximately $17.25 million;

2. Digital Asset, a company providing blockchain technology platforms for several large banks and trading firms, is undergoing a new round of financing, with insiders stating its valuation is around $2 billion, with investors including a16z crypto.

3. Analyst Yashu Gola stated that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped over 35% in the past year, and the current trend is repeating a bearish structure from 2024 to 2025, suggesting further downside may still exist. Technically, ETH/BTC has been constrained by a downward trend line since 2022, with previous breakout attempts failing, one of which triggered a subsequent nearly 70% drop. In August 2025, the ETH/BTC exchange rate tested this trend line again, encountering resistance and falling below the approximately 0.034 20-month EMA support, indicating that bears still dominate the trend. If the weak trend continues, the next key downside target is around 0.0176, representing about a 40% drop from current levels, corresponding to the 2020 cycle low area.

4. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated yesterday that he remains cautious about Bitcoin's trend, believing the current rise is a corrective rebound after a significant drop, rather than the start of a confirmed new bull market. He pointed out that after BTC fell from $125,000 to $60,000, while the market has shown recovery, several on-chain indicators have not yet reached the corresponding range of historical bear market bottoms. For example, the long-term holder (LTH) holding structure has not formed a typical bottom accumulation pattern, and the market has not experienced a complete spot sell-off and panic clearance phase.

5. On May 10, Michael Saylor stated in an interview that one of the trends he is currently most optimistic about is the integration of BTC with the DeFi ecosystem. He mentioned that yield-bearing tokens based on STRC have recently grown rapidly, with some protocols' TVL even expanding at a rate of "adding $1 million per hour."

Saylor stated that current DeFi protocols are utilizing STRC to build yield-bearing products with returns of 8% to 11%, and further amplifying returns through 3x to 5x leveraged cycles. He expects the yield-bearing token market to develop into a new industry worth billions of dollars in the coming months.

# V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|--------------|-----| | 10:00 | USA | April Existing Home Sales | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 10:00 | USA | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | ⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

• Circle Earnings Release: To be announced today, focusing on stablecoin business and profitability.
• Cerebras IPO: Listing on May 14, oversubscribed 20 times, pricing range may be adjusted.

Additionally, this week's macro events will focus on the US April CPI data, specifically as follows:

Tuesday 15:15 (UTC+8), FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy;

Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending April 25;

Tuesday 20:30, US April CPI data;

Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8;

Wednesday 20:30, US April PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;

Friday 05:30, Federal Reserve Governor Barr will deliver a speech;

Friday 21:15, US April industrial production month-on-month.

This week, the Federal Reserve will undergo significant personnel changes, with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and officially take over from Powell on May 15. In the US stock market, the three major US stock index futures slightly declined on Monday. Although the first quarter earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will still be a key driver of stock prices in the coming days.

Institutional Views:

Several investment bank analysts point out that the current market is at a critical juncture where AI investment logic is shifting from "single computing power" to "full-link infrastructure." Previously undervalued segments like Intel, Micron, and AMD are receiving significant capital inflows, while Nvidia remains strong but signals of "power transition" are emerging. Geopolitically, while the Iranian peace plan's obstruction has pressured oil prices, the resumption of US-China economic and trade consultations provides a buffer for risk assets. The cryptocurrency market benefits from continued ETF inflows (despite short-term volatility) and the acceleration of traditional institutional tokenization, with BTC and ETH experiencing short-term fluctuations but maintaining a bullish medium-term trend. Overall, institutions believe that short-term volatility will revolve around data and events, but the long-term capital expenditure increase in AI (ByteDance up 25%) and the trend of localizing supply chains will support the performance of technology and related assets, advising investors to pay attention to sector rotation and risk hedging.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably have deviations; please refer to real-time market data.