Chris Lee: From crypto OG to heavy investments in the three storage giants, predictions on AI bull market corrections, Web4, and opportunities for the younger generation

Core Viewpoint

I. From Crypto OG to AI US Stocks: A Perspective Shift Following Real Money

Mr. Z: Could you please introduce yourself, Chris? You have shifted your focus from early exchanges and the crypto space to now paying a lot of attention to US stocks, AI semiconductors, and storage. How did this investment perspective form?

Chris: Hello everyone, I am currently in Silicon Valley, at the center of the AI universe, Palo Alto, and it's evening here.

I entered Crypto in 2016. I started at OKX, which was then called OKCoin and OKEx; later, I went to Huobi as CFO; then I became the president of Black Hole Capital, which was one of Binance's earliest investors. CZ and He Yi were also from OK back then. After I met them in 2017, I maintained a very good relationship and contact, and we have met separately over the years.

I truly started my own fund in 2020, after leaving Black Hole, I established my first fund called TKX Capital, investing in about seventy to eighty crypto projects, of course, I also paid a lot of tuition. Now I am on the second fund, called Merkle 3s Capital, mainly looking at "Web4," which is Web3 + AI. Additionally, we have a secondary AI-themed fund managed by another partner, which has performed very well this year.

Regarding this perspective shift, it’s actually not as dramatic as everyone imagines. I have always believed in one thing: the only factor that determines price is the flow of funds. In the past ten years, funds flowed into Crypto, so we focused on exchanges and funds there; but in the past two years, it is clear that funds are flowing into AI computing power, storage, and optical interconnects.

Coming from a traditional managerial background, my approach is to follow the real money. This is very important. But please don't misunderstand, I am not abandoning Crypto; rather, I must acknowledge a reality: the biggest Alpha is not in altcoins, it is in Nvidia's earnings report, Musk's space narrative, and the supply-demand gap in AI storage and semiconductors. I am still in Crypto, just adding AI to my considerations, that’s all. In simple terms, it’s about following the flow of funds.

II. The "Twisting Towel" Style Correction in US Stocks: Healthy Adjustments in a Bull Market vs. True Signals of Bubble Bursting

Mr. Z: You recently mentioned that after six consecutive weeks of gains, US stocks entered a "twisting towel" style correction. How do you understand the current market state? Is this a healthy adjustment in a bull market, or the beginning of an AI bubble bursting?

Chris: First, let’s talk about the AI narrative itself. Ren Zhengfei from Huawei has said that this AI revolution is the last industrial revolution in human history because it will change everything. So the main line is very clear: AI is the "electricity revolution" of this era. Think back to the railways, highways, and automobiles; they are all on the same scale.

My judgment is: this is a healthy squeezing of excess in a bull market, not a bubble bursting. When I said, "After six consecutive weeks, it’s time for a healthy correction," the market indeed pulled back for several days, but now it has rebounded again. Regardless, I believe there should still be a healthy correction, so that the subsequent upward movement is more stable.

The characteristics of a bubble bursting are: orders disappearing, CapEx being cut, and guidance being revised downward. But what we see now is quite the opposite; Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC's backlog of orders extends to 2026 or even 2027, and Hyperscalers are still ramping up CapEx. The side effect of six consecutive weeks of gains is simply that valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and the market needs to wash out overly excited retail investors and highly leveraged funds, which is what we call "twisting the towel."

The real risk signals are actually these three things: first, AI earnings reports starting to miss guidance; second, Channel customers' CapEx being revised downward; third, interest rates getting out of control again. Until these three things happen, I would consider every major drop an opportunity to enter.

My previous expectation was that QQQ would correct within 10%, but the market is too hot now, so it may not be achievable. Coupled with the US-Iran war, inflation, US debt, etc., there may still be another wave of correction. I personally would rather see such a correction; a bull market without corrections is actually more dangerous.

III. Position Discipline in the AI Main Rise: Why 20-30% Cash is "Offensive" Rather than Defensive

Mr. Z: You have always emphasized that "discipline comes first in the investment world," and also reminded not to be fully invested or use high leverage, but to keep 20-30% or even more cash. How do you view position management now? In the main rise of AI, why is cash considered an offensive tool?

Chris: To be honest, I have also learned a lot in the US stock market. My returns were very good in the first half of last year, but in the second half, especially after October, I basically gave it all back. This made me deeply realize that investment discipline and leverage control are the most important factors.

I have mentioned that saying from Munger, "Leverage, women, and alcohol" can lead to bankruptcy, and leverage is the first among them. You see in cycles like 2018 and 2022, too many smart people were forced to liquidate; it wasn't that they were wrong, but they couldn't survive until dawn.

So my usual state is: about 60-70% is offensive positions, 20-30% is cash, and a little is for hedging. Why is cash important? Mainly because having cash makes me feel more secure and able to hold on; additionally, if the market pulls back, I have money to buy the dip.

In the main rise of AI, why is cash offensive? Because in a bull market, the most expensive thing is not stocks, but the cash you hold on the day of a big drop. You see, on March 31, when it dropped to the lowest point, I was adding to my positions on Twitter, continuously buying until the rebound, and that wave of returns was very good.

If you are fully invested, when the market adjusts, you have no opportunity to buy the dip, and you may have used leverage, which creates a lot of pressure every time you pay interest. Investment is also a psychology; don’t let yourself have this nameless pressure that leads to irrational decisions. If you really need to use leverage, I think at most 10% to 30%, any more and you will forget discipline.

As for what I would buy during a big drop, it would be the main theme of AI. Nvidia represents computing power; TSMC is one of my largest holdings because whether CPUs or GPUs win, it ultimately relies on TSMC as the manufacturer. In fact, I believe TSMC is the crown jewel of the entire AI revolution, akin to the Star of Africa in the Queen's crown. Then there’s storage; my most important positions were Nvidia, TSMC, Micron, and DRAM storage ETFs.

By the way, our secondary AI fund has about 40% returns YTD this year, but still holds about 50% cash in positions. This also reflects the shared philosophy among our partners.

IV. Optical Modules vs. Storage: Valuation Differences, Smart Money, and Business Timing

Mr. Z: You have repeatedly mentioned that "optical modules are overvalued, while storage is relatively cheap," even saying that smart money may already be making choices. How do you determine whether an AI field is overvalued or undervalued? What is the biggest valuation difference between optical modules and storage?

Chris: I assess valuations based on three things: first, is the fundamental really there; second, has the consensus already been priced in; third, is there still a non-consensus expectation difference? The last point is very important.

Optical modules have already risen sharply; the forward P/E has been calculated to 2027 and 2028, and the market's expectations for it are very full, which is a clear signal for unloading. Another observation is that you can look at the 13F holdings disclosure of Situation Awareness LP (an AI fund founded by former OpenAI employees with over $10 billion AUM); they have completely unloaded Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), and other optical module stocks, but bought Corning (GLW).

Additionally, the business timing of Co-packaged Optics (CPO) has significant uncertainty, and the market tends to discount uncertain things.

But storage is completely different. Look at the price increase of HBM; orders are overflowing, yet the market habitually values Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung as cyclical stocks, previously giving them a projected P/E of 5-7 times. If we truly talk about the Super Cycle, it should be valued at least 15-20 times, so this is just the first wave of valuation starting.

Let’s look at another piece of data: SK Hynix's net profit for the full year of 2025 is expected to surpass Samsung for the first time, relying on HBM. Similarly benefiting from the AI dividend, optical modules benefit from narrative premiums, while storage is about pricing power, and Seeing is Believing; the numbers are there, and the expectation difference for future trends will be even greater.

Smart money has actually been moving early. Micron has washed out twice: first, it surged to 465, then dropped back down to around 313; later, it washed again, rising to over 800; then it couldn't hold at the 706 level and dropped down again, rebounding to the 600s; now at 818 is a resistance level, and it broke through quickly. Big players are not unloading because everyone knows this.

I come from a background in real industry and have been a CFO of a listed company; I know that a stock's true re-evaluation involves several factors: the company's own fundamentals (Firm Specific), the industry itself (Sector), the market (Beta), and how the market perceives you (the colored glasses through which they view you). The key moment is when net profits show little growth but valuation multiples change. You see Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have already started this re-evaluation, and UBS followed suit yesterday; there will be more to come.

Moreover, capacity will not meet industrial demand until 2028. I have looked at a lot of research, and even some storage distributors and key figures in the value chain in Taiwan believe it may not be met even by 2030. Some people on Twitter still say storage is just a cyclical stock, just a commodity; everything is technically a commodity, but when you see data growing like this, and valuations still being pressed down as cyclical stocks, I think that’s too stubborn.

Keynes once said very well: "In the long run, we are all dead." In the end, we all die, but the high reliability of data within three years has provided very good information; Serious belief in figures is enough; numbers are hard to deceive.

Additionally, there’s a scale factor; the scale formed by storage over two to three years far exceeds that of optical modules. When buying stocks, you actually need to look at two timings: one is Business Timing, which is the point when the industry scales up; the other is Market Timing, which is the point of entry. These two points are what the best investors on Wall Street will consider.

V. HBM Super Cycle: From Cyclical Stocks to AI Pricing Power in Storage

Mr. Z: You mentioned that Anthropic's explosive growth will further validate the narrative of structural shortages in AI storage. From the growth of Claude, Vibe Coding, and enterprise-level AI tools, how will this translate to the pricing power of HBM, DRAM, NAND, and the three storage giants?

Chris: First of all, computing power is continuously growing and cannot stop. Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai has said that the demand for computing power doubles approximately every six months. So I don’t see a moment when it will stop.

Moreover, everyone’s life has become inseparable from AI. In the morning, when you wake up and use Google search, Gemini's AI features are directly available to you; in mainland China, there are Doubao, Qianwen, etc., which have already become part of life. The demand will gradually form a large scale, which requires massive computing power.

The five-layer structure I see is: energy, computing power (chips), storage, applications, and Cloud services. Of course, the GPU layer is the most critical. My current judgment remains that hardware comes first, including Nvidia, TSMC, Intel, AMD, and storage, all along the hardware line.

The software side is also gradually rising; I see potential in the cloud area: Microsoft has now stabilized its footing; Amazon is actually very strong; Google, if you bought from the low of 142 to now around 380, has been quite stable. Stocks like NBIS (Nebius) play a secondary role and also have investment value when the overall trend is upward.

But the main theme is still hardware, which also includes CPO and optical modules. The most sexy, tangible, and not yet fully reconstructed area is storage. This is my core judgment.

VI. Can Chinese Storage Shake the Three Giants? Where is the Ceiling for CXMT and YMTC?

Mr. Z: How do you view the long-term pursuit of storage giants by Chinese manufacturers like CXMT (Changxin Memory) and YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies)? Why do you believe that high-end HBM supply will still heavily rely on Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung in 2026-2027?

Chris: Chinese manufacturers must face reality, but there’s no need to mythologize them. Changxin lags behind the three giants by about three years, and Yangtze Memory has about 11% market share in the global NAND market and is also pushing for an IPO, performing well. But doing well does not mean they can produce HBM well; that’s two different matters.
The technical competition for HBM mainly revolves around three aspects:

First, TSV (Through-Silicon Via) technology; second, advanced packaging; third, co-design with GPU manufacturers.

The first two require EUV and advanced packaging equipment, but these are currently restricted from export to mainland China. The third point requires deep binding and co-design with Nvidia and AMD, which Chinese manufacturers currently cannot enter. Therefore, in 2026-2027, the supply of high-end HBM3 and HBM4 will definitely still be monopolized by the three giants.

These two Chinese manufacturers will long-term eat into the low-end DDR and consumer-grade NAND market, but in the high-end AI segment, they cannot move in the short term. This is also the core logic behind my heavy investment in SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron.

VII. Why Invest in US Stocks Instead of Coins: The Biggest Alpha is Not in Altcoins

Mr. Z: You were an important figure in the early crypto space, but recently you have clearly focused more on the mainline of US stocks and AI. How do you view the current phenomenon of "investing in US stocks instead of coins"?

Chris: The myth of hundredfold or thousandfold coins is really rare now. Getting rich through meme coins can only happen when liquidity is very high, the overall altcoin market is activated, and there are actions to harvest retail investors; it’s not as glorious or outrageous as before.

If you want to hold a hundredfold coin, you can only bet on the right field and the right timing, and the vast majority of altcoins will go to zero.

We actually had a successful formula for altcoins: community consensus + technical consensus + team + capital (VC resources) + exchange support. I want to emphasize that centralized exchanges are still very important to this day; this cannot change, unfortunately. But even cultural and community consensus will gradually fade; look at how many people are still talking about ETC and EOS now?

If you still want to gain Alpha in the crypto space, it’s really difficult; don’t think about chasing after the latest coins; that era is over. Moreover, it used to be about dressing up for institutions, who picked the lowest hanging fruit.

However, there are a few directions I think still have opportunities:

First, infrastructure and services. Institutionalization is certain; this is something exchanges cannot do. Custody compliance, stablecoin issuance, on-chain data, AI tools—if you have connections in these areas, there are still opportunities. Retail investors find it hard to compete.

Second, treat crypto as financial infrastructure, doing real business and long-termism, rather than a casino. Working seriously for three to five years will yield returns far exceeding going all-in on altcoins.

Third, regularly dollar-cost average into Bitcoin and increase positions during big drops; use Beta to beat Beta; this is the simplest strategy.

We still insist on investing in some AI projects, but they need to have Web3 elements and be approached from a Web3 perspective; we are still trying this, often because of passion.

VIII. Bitcoin Technicals: Possible Dip to the 65,000-70,000 Range

Victor: Regarding Bitcoin, you previously mentioned that it is likely to dip below 70,000 USD, and if it drops, you can continue to buy the dip. Under the influence of the AI era, do you think the positioning of BTC as an asset has changed? As a fund manager, how would you incorporate it into asset allocation? What do you see for future trends?

Chris: Let me first talk about the technicals. Bitcoin is now around 75,000, having dropped below the 200-day moving average (around 80,000), which is a key technical signal indicating a weakening medium-term trend. I personally do not rule out a dip to the 65,000-70,000 range to wash out leverage and emotions. So my judgment on Bitcoin is primarily based on technicals.

Next, let’s discuss positioning. Here I want to correct a common assumption: many people think that funds must flow back from semiconductors, storage, and AI into crypto for Bitcoin to rise. This implies that the total amount of funds has not increased. But that’s not the case; the total market will grow, and BTC and tech stocks have inherently different attributes and should not be equated directly.

So what are the roles of BTC and ETH? Bitcoin's role is still as a store of value, a decentralized digital gold used to hedge against inflation; Ether, on the other hand, is a decentralized world computer, the underlying infrastructure of blockchain, more like digital oil. The two types of assets are fundamentally different. Therefore, when incorporating them into asset allocation, it should be viewed hierarchically with a fund management mindset, rather than treating them as the same thing.

IX. Two Conditions for the Next Crypto Bull Market: AI Phase Peaks + New Institutions Entering

Mr. Z: For crypto liquidity to truly improve and for the next market trend to rise, what conditions do you think need to be met?

Chris: Two conditions need to be met:

First, AI itself must reach a peak phase, requiring profit-taking before looking for a higher Beta sector.

Second, new institutions must enter crypto, creating new trends: for example, the real implementation of stablecoins, significant new increments in USDC and USDT (previously, before looking at Bitcoin's fluctuations, the first thing to look at was the new increment of USDT), and the RWA segment must truly take off in the US stock market, followed by Bitcoin reaching new highs, creating FOMO. This is a chicken-and-egg logic.

But until these things happen, crypto is essentially in a consolidation phase, and I strongly advise against speculating on altcoins. The mainstream coins I am more optimistic about are still BTC, ETH, Solana (SOL), BNB, and HYPE; these are worth considering.

For altcoins to rise, the only support is increased liquidity because they are essentially "long-tail assets." Therefore, investment should still be approached with a fund management mindset: first allocate to stocks, allocate to digital currencies, and within digital currencies, differentiate between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and mainstream coins, treating altcoins as small bets for fun, investing only a very small percentage.

I have been in exchanges for over five years, seeing too many retail investors being harvested; altcoins find it hard to deliver long-term returns, and often you can't even keep up.

On January 20, 2020, I had dinner with Buffett, and when Bitcoin was mentioned, he became furious. He is 90 years old now, but one thing I think is still reliable: he doesn’t invest in things that can’t be accounted for and have no cash flow.

However, I still believe Bitcoin has its place; the biggest support is the global consensus: everyone believes in Satoshi Nakamoto and blockchain technology. Altcoins really lack this consensus, so if you really want to invest in altcoins, do so with a very small percentage.

X. The Historical Mission of Crypto: From Casino to Financial Infrastructure

Victor: The wildest days of crypto are over. For newcomers in the crypto industry, what advice would you give them to earn Alpha in the industry?

Chris: To be honest, the era of Web3 has passed, and we must accept this reality. I greatly admire Mr. Z and Victor, seeing your perseverance and boldness in internationalization. But even so, I believe the opportunities in the crypto space now largely belong to institutions; individual opportunities are really few.

Think about it: the most profitable exchanges, which may earn 2 billion USD in net profit each year, are laying off employees and bracing for a winter; many large exchanges may even lose money this year. In such a challenging environment with so many restrictions, starting a startup in this space is actually very difficult because financing is also hard.

We VCs have invested very little this year. Last year, we still tried to help several projects with financing; I even wrote personal checks to support them because we still have faith and hope that Chinese teams can rise and do better in financing and storytelling. In such a small place as Hong Kong, there used to be big companies like Crypto.com, FTX, Bitfinex, and very good TradFi, but unfortunately, opportunities are becoming fewer.

Moreover, I must honestly say that many regulations in Hong Kong over the years have been unfriendly to the entire industry; legislation has been implemented without thorough consideration. There’s a saying in Cantonese: "Cut off your toes to avoid sandworms," meaning to avoid sandworms, you cut off your toes. None of the 12 licensed exchanges in Hong Kong are making money, and the largest traffic still lies with Binance. The regulations on stablecoins are also lacking; many things that should have been done have not been done, which involves many political factors.

So I would even advise against coming to crypto right now. I believe crypto has reached the historical mission stage it should have. What remains are payments (Stablecoin), RWA, and some models linking AI, which is why I have always advocated the direction of "Web4 = Web3 + AI."

If you want good returns, I still recommend primarily investing in AI, but Bitcoin should still be accumulated; that’s my advice. Many old crypto enthusiasts on Twitter are still thinking about the current market with past mindsets, and most are losing badly. We must accept the changes of the times.

Don't get me wrong; I still have a very positive outlook on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a couple of exchange tokens. But the largest incremental market is already in AI.

Let me share a little story of my own. Recently, after the Hong Kong Web3 Festival, there was an occasion where I sat face-to-face with Vitalik (Ethereum founder), and I directly asked him, "If you could do it all over again, would you choose AI or Web3?" He honestly replied, "There’s a real possibility I would do AI." But he added, staying in Web3 could also make a difference and do something meaningful. So even though AI has more opportunities, if you can find a real pain point in Web3 and solve it, that is also an opportunity. Entrepreneurship requires perseverance; it’s not something that happens overnight.

XI. Web4 = Web3 + AI: Stablecoins, Cross-Border Payments, and AI Agents

Victor: What subfields within Web4, which is Web3 + AI, do you think you would be interested in investing in?

Chris: It’s actually very clear now. US regulations have become very clear: the CLARITY Act has come out, and stablecoin legislation has been completed, but dollar liquidity has not truly loosened, and applications and new narratives are actually blank.

I look forward to several things:

First, stablecoins truly penetrating cross-border payments, becoming vehicles for the dollar to go abroad. It could even be a New Taiwan Dollar stablecoin or a Renminbi stablecoin. Payments are crucial; if you pay attention, all major companies eventually do payments, and payment stickiness is very strong; you are involved in almost every aspect of life, and it doesn’t have to be monopolized.

Second, payments, settlements, and credit between AI agents can only be done by crypto; it’s a scenario that Web2 cannot replace, and on-chain makes more sense.

Third, Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange want to do on-chain RWA. So, combining tools in this area and tools for accessibility to connect the scenarios, we are also looking in this direction.

XII. Nasdaq Correction Path and Conditions for the Return of the US Stock Bull Market

Victor: You recently predicted that Nasdaq might correct by 10-13%, and semiconductors might average a correction of around 20%, before rising again in the new earnings season. What is the core basis for your judgment on this path?

Chris: In fact, the Nasdaq rebounded quickly after its first correction; I expect it may correct another 10%, but it hasn’t returned to that level yet, only correcting a few points before hitting new highs again. So this correction hasn’t officially started.

The worst-case scenario is this: CTA strategies now account for about 60-70% of normal trading volume in US stocks. They look for factor triggers; for example, when Micron's support level of 706 broke, it dropped to the 600s, but when it returned to the 818 resistance level, it broke through quickly. It’s no longer about fundamentals; it’s a momentum trade.

I think a correction within 10% is more reasonable; some non-mainstream small-cap stocks may drop more severely. For example, optical module stocks may only see bottom-line growth of 30-40%, but P/E multiples have already reached 50-60 times, and many companies' CPO products have not yet officially launched; this valuation is unreasonable.

So I have always advised everyone: first, do not use leverage; second, keep some cash; 10-20% may be reasonable.

Mr. Z: For the US stock bull market to truly return, what conditions do you think need to be met? Is it that AI earnings continue to exceed expectations, interest rate expectations return, inflation and oil prices stabilize, geopolitical risks decrease, or funds re-enter MAG 7 and semiconductors?

Chris: The core conditions boil down to two: first, AI earnings continue to exceed expectations; second, interest rates are no longer out of control. Interest rate control, in simple terms, is inflation.

US national debt is currently about 37-38 trillion, increasing by 1 trillion every 100 days; the debt pressure means the Federal Reserve needs to maintain low interest rates long-term, or else the finances cannot sustain themselves. Therefore, interest rate expectations will be very volatile, but the direction should be downward. Inflation and oil prices are influenced by the Middle East and OPEC in the short term, but in the long term, we must look at the productivity improvements brought by AI, which is very important.

After Trump’s second term, people may have also gotten used to it: making friends with volatility; geopolitical risks will always exist. You see, he stirred up Venezuela, then Iran, and hasn’t even touched Cuba; there will always be such things. The market will digest it repeatedly.

The core bet can be summed up in one sentence: AI CapEx will not stop, and interest rates will not spike; the US stock bull market will continue on this path. Every correction is an opportunity. My basic logic is MAG 7 + semiconductors + storage; these are the leading targets in this round.

XIII. Geographical, Industrial, and Capability Choices for Young Chinese in the AI Era

Mr. Z: You previously mentioned that "money will only flow to open economies," and also noted that for young people from Hong Kong and Taiwan who have grown up with British and American education, the US is still a relatively good place for career development. How would you advise young people to choose geographical locations, industries, and capability stacks?

Chris: I just had dinner tonight with several influential AI investors from Hong Kong. One of them is the head of a listed company and has invested in several major exchanges in Hong Kong; he himself feels that many policies in Hong Kong are not open, including Web3 policies. JD and Ant have withdrawn their stablecoin applications, leaving only two foreign banks issuing currency.

Some people studying in the US for their undergraduate or master’s degrees aim to stay in the US; some who were originally in Singapore have also left, feeling that Singapore is not suitable for them. The most important thing is what you want to position yourself as.

To be honest, from the perspective of both Hong Kong and Taiwan, we used to be able to be Super Connectors, especially Hong Kong people. But now, due to political reasons, this model has been weakened in both Hong Kong and Taiwan; Taiwan has also blocked many funds and collaborations that should have come in due to political reasons. This is a reality we must face.

I suggest thinking from three layers:

First layer, geography. For young people from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia who have received British and American education, the main battlefield geographically should be in the US Bay Area, New York, Silicon Alley, Austin, etc. Supplemented by Asian hubs: Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo. But mainland China has something that other places cannot do, which is the supply chain; functions related to supply chain or R&D can be done in the mainland.

Second layer, industry. AI, semiconductors, energy, biotechnology, and financial capital are the five fields that will be the largest pools of funds in the next decade.

Third layer, capability. Choose a hard skill, such as AI engineering, product, investment research, or sales, and aim to be in the top 10%. For soft skills, you must be proficient in English, storytelling, cross-cultural communication, and capital market awareness.

The most precious thing for young people is time and the opportunity to make mistakes. For those of us who have been in corporate management for 20 years, one mistake can affect partners and colleagues, who all have families to support; that’s different.

I think young people should step out of their comfort zones and not bind themselves; they should choose the right direction. Huobi had a motto back then, the first line was "Choosing is more important than effort"; think first, and then work hard; otherwise, if you choose the wrong place or industry, it won’t matter how hard you work.

The advantage of the new generation is that it doesn’t necessarily depend on where you were born or your background. In 2012 and 2013, Bitcoin and Ethereum rose, and to be honest, it was still driven by the Chinese market; later, Wall Street in the US embraced or controlled Bitcoin; then the new opportunity became AI. The hardware infrastructure for AI will at least run until 2029, and we have only gone halfway.

As for other aspects like software, Tom Lee has also been talking about software recently; there are indeed many things to try. If you ask me how Chris would guide you, to be honest, I don’t know; I’m not sure, but we can explore together. At least the direction of AI is correct.

Additionally, I want to specifically mention Taiwan. Taiwan has very strong capabilities in hardware; many of my Taiwanese friends come from hardware backgrounds, and there are many outstanding Taiwanese hardware analysts at Morgan Stanley. Taiwan also does POS very well, like companies such as Castles Technology. Plus, with AI Smart Devices, I recently saw at a major exhibition in Chicago that globally, only two places can produce hardware Smart Devices: one is mainland China, and the other is Taiwan; there really aren’t others. Moreover, many manufacturers in mainland China actually have Taiwanese backgrounds.

To make a more straightforward observation: there are many beautiful graduates from National Taiwan University; what industries are they going into now? Basically, they are all going into AI. What about that group of people who were most active in Web3 in Taiwan? They are also doing AI now. This reflects a change in the era, roles, and industries. But what we can possess and do best in the new field of AI and Web3 integration is what we can achieve.

XIV. Final Advice for the Younger Generation: Choosing is More Important than Effort, Peace of Mind, and Family Stability

Mr. Z & Victor: Finally, does Chris have any thoughts to share with our audience, or with the builders in the crypto space and AI investors?

Chris: To be honest, I rarely participate in Spaces for interviews because I feel that most feedback on Twitter lacks thought and is often just in the form of insults. So there was a time when I didn’t join any Spaces. But I once wanted to be friends with everyone, and I was moved by your spirit, so I came to chat today.

I think young people should not change themselves to cater to the market; they should firmly believe in what they are doing.

If you were to invest time and capital in three things:

First, allocate to hardware assets. Keep a portion of Bitcoin; the main line in US stocks is MAG 7 + Micron, SK Hynix, DRAM ETFs. Palantir (PLTR) is also good, but it’s too expensive now. Keep cash. Huge returns come from waiting and patience; truly good companies may require holding for two to three years without selling to realize real compounding.

Second, improve yourself. Use AI large models more, utilize GPT.

Third, build capital networks. Mr. Z does this very well. Perseverance is very important. Over the past few years, I have also helped several young people with significant resources, but most have disappointed me; some projects even caused losses for investors, which I find quite unwilling. But seeing Mr. Z’s sincerity and spirit, I see hope for the new generation of young people in Taiwan.

What will increasingly valuable abilities be in the future? Judgment, taste, capital allocation ability, the ability to establish trust with others, and cross-cultural execution ability. For example, connecting the mainland supply chain to the US market is cross-cultural execution. The relational aspects between people are irreplaceable by AI.

When learning about investment, the first article everyone should read is still Duan Yongping’s; if you have time, look at Buffett and Munger; it will truly lead to simplicity. You must delineate your own circle of competence, be loyal to yourself, and be loyal to the facts; being grounded is the foundation for crossing cycles.

I talk very little about stocks because I only research a few, but I spend almost all my time studying these few stocks. Later, I saw the issues with Micron, and every day I was using AI to help probe deeper and thoroughly research Micron, which gave me the confidence to heavily invest.

As a young generation, the most important thing is still health; exercise, take care of your family; that’s our responsibility. "Man proposes, God disposes," just work hard, and think about your life with a fund management mindset, considering your life, industry, and investments in a combinatorial way.

Accept that you have imperfections and room for improvement; reflect on yourself each time. Humility is very important; only by humbly acknowledging shortcomings can you find space for growth. American education often promotes "I'm so good, I'm damn good," but in reality, the reverse of the mentality problem will lead to your progress.

Many people continuously express and say many things, but it’s not like that. Substance over form; your content is more important than your appearance. Look at Jensen Huang from Nvidia; he is actually an introvert who gradually trained himself to become an extrovert; Musk is also an introvert; Zuckerberg is too. Only those who truly get things done can stand out.

The wheels of the times roll forward; we must accept this change and adapt to this era. Huobi once had four maxims, and I want to share them with you:

First, choosing is more important than effort.

Second, life cannot be defeated by the word "wait." Don’t think you must have a perfect plan before acting; opportunities do not wait for anyone.

Third, mental strength can fend off "demonic obstacles." When resources are insufficient, rely on mental strength, resilience, and effort to achieve.

Fourth, equivalent exchange. What can you use to exchange for your achievements? This is very important.

Later, I added two more:

Fifth, professionals do professional things.

Sixth, worldview: think about problems with a global perspective, a holistic view, and a future-oriented mindset.

Finally, I want to say that in this era of very turbulent geopolitics, we must think about "where is our place to stand and live." I am rarely a blogger who shares my true self on Twitter. Everything has its pros and cons; mainland China has good aspects and bad aspects, and so do foreign countries and Taiwan. View things objectively.

Many times, we cannot control politics; as individuals, we really cannot control it, so just do your best and don’t let politics affect communication between people. We are all Chinese, and culturally, Confucianism, propriety, wisdom, trust, and benevolence are our greatest common factors.

Investment should achieve "peace of mind, sleep well, and family stability": peace of mind means no pressure, allowing for rational decision-making; sleep well means being able to sleep soundly; family stability means ensuring the well-being of family. Two weeks ago, I liquidated all my Bitcoin positions in a fund at 81,000-82,000. I couldn’t do that before, but now I can because I can sleep well, don’t use leverage, and have cash to buy the dip. Many times, if you are too extreme and keep adding leverage, one failure can wipe everything out.

In the grand AI era and amidst the whirlpool of geopolitics, we are all ants of the times, but what we can do is take responsibility for ourselves, take care of ourselves, take care of our families, lead our teams well, and then give hope to the next generation. Let the next generation be smarter, solve cross-strait issues, productivity issues, and create a more harmonious humanity.

Work hard, run hard, young people; the future belongs to you. Thank you.

Mr. Z & Victor: Thank you very much to Chris for over an hour of wonderful sharing, from the perspective of an early crypto OG to the current mainline of AI US stocks, the HBM Super Cycle, judgments on Web4, and life advice for young people, all very useful. We look forward to the opportunity to meet in Silicon Valley or Hong Kong. Thanks to every listener who has made it this far; if you liked this episode, please follow 168X on X and YouTube, and share the program with more friends interested in macro, AI, and cutting-edge technology. See you in the next episode.

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