Bitget UEX Daily Report | Ceasefire expectations rise, U.S. stock market three major indices hit new highs; Dell's earnings report exceeds expectations, night trading surges; Anthropic's valuation surpasses OpenAI (May 29, 2026)

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics Federal Reserve Officials Warn Against Relying on AI to Mitigate Inflation

• St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated that we cannot rely on productivity gains from AI to solve the current high inflation problem, which contradicts Chairman Waller's views.
• He emphasized that current interest rates are below neutral levels, the labor market is stable, but inflation is significantly above the 2% target, and long-term expectations are rising.
• PCE data shows a year-on-year increase of 3.8% in April, reinforcing inflation concerns. Market Impact: This statement may limit short-term rate cut expectations, support the dollar, and put pressure on overvalued tech stocks, but if AI productivity gains materialize later, it could alleviate long-term inflation worries.

International Commodities Ceasefire Expectations Drive Oil Price Volatility, Gold and Silver Margins Lowered

• Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, with Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasizing red lines and warning Oman not to impose fees in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran has not yet formally agreed to the memorandum, but the market is optimistic about the timely reopening of the strait.
• Goldman Sachs estimates that global crude oil inventories are nearing the 100-day warning line, with visible inventories even lower.
• CME has lowered margins for gold and silver futures. Market Impact: Optimism about a ceasefire alleviates risks of energy supply disruptions, putting downward pressure on oil prices; volatility in precious metals may decrease in the short term, but geopolitical uncertainty still supports safe-haven demand.

Macroeconomic Policy EU Plans Huge Investment to Revitalize Chip Industry

• The EU plans to invest €120 billion in public-private partnerships through the "Chip Act 2.0" by 2035, focusing on building new AI semiconductor fabs.
• The aim is to enhance domestic chip demand and manufacturing capacity to address global supply chain risks. Market Impact: This move could boost the European tech supply chain and resonate with US-China competition, having a long-term impact on global semiconductor pricing and the geopolitical tech landscape.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: +0.01%, returning to $4500/oz.
• Spot Silver: +0.07%, reported at $75.7/oz.
• WTI Crude Oil: -0.75%, reported at $88.22/barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: -0.55%, reported at $92/barrel.
• Dollar Index: +0.01%, reported at 99.007.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: -0.96%, reported at $73,826.
• ETH: -0.61%, reported at $2,015.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: -0.8%, reported at $2.56 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24H approximately $756 million, with long positions liquidated at $752 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC's current price is around 73,837, with a large number of high-leverage short liquidation points clustered in the $74,100-$75,000 area. If the price continues to surge, it may trigger short covering and accelerate the rise. Below, around $72,000-$73,000, there is a significant accumulation of long leverage; if this level is breached, it could trigger concentrated stop-losses from bulls, significantly amplifying short-term volatility.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $733 million yesterday, marking over 8 consecutive days of net outflows.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Slightly up 0.05%, reported at 50,678.45 points, continuing to set new historical highs, supported by defensive sectors.
• S&P 500: Up 0.58%, reported at 7,563.28 points, continuously setting closing highs, driven significantly by tech and growth stocks.
• Nasdaq: Up 0.91%, reported at 26,906.54 points, with AI-related sectors performing prominently, maintaining strength.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): +0.53%, reported at $312.51, with core consumer electronics business remaining robust and service revenue continuing to grow.
• Microsoft (MSFT): +3.47%, reported at $426.99, with strong demand for AI cloud service Azure driving overall performance expectations upward.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): +0.78%, reported at $214.25, with sustained high demand for AI chips, and data center business becoming a major growth engine.
• Google (Alphabet, GOOGL): +0.33%, reported at $390.13, with stable performance in search and cloud business, and gradual effects of AI integration becoming apparent.
• Amazon (AMZN): Up about 0.73%, reported in the $273-$274 range, with e-commerce and AWS working in synergy, leading to significant growth in cloud computing revenue.
• Meta (META): +0.01%, reported at $635.29, with strong support from advertising business, and long-term investments in the metaverse and AI.
• Tesla (TSLA): +0.40%, reported at $442.10, with energy storage and autonomous driving business attracting market attention, and delivery fluctuations impacting short-term performance.

Summary: The seven giants are generally strong, with AI themes remaining the main driving factor. Microsoft and NVIDIA, among other core AI stocks, lead the gains, while Dell and other AI server-related stocks performed even more prominently in after-hours trading (surging over 30-38% due to better-than-expected earnings). Geopolitical easing and statements from Federal Reserve officials have jointly shaped the current risk appetite landscape.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductors/AI Hardware rose over 2.8%

• Representative Stocks: Dell Technologies (DELL) +3.84% (surged nearly 38-40% in after-hours), NVIDIA (NVDA) +0.78%, Broadcom (AVGO) moderately followed suit.
• Driving Factors: Dell's Q1 earnings significantly exceeded expectations, with AI server revenue soaring 757% year-on-year, and orders reaching $12.1 billion, far exceeding the total shipments for the previous year, highlighting accelerated enterprise AI capital expenditure. Market confidence in long-term demand for AI infrastructure has significantly increased, driving resonance across the entire semiconductor supply chain.

Energy Sector fell 1.5%-2.0%

• Representative Stocks: Exxon Mobil (XOM) -1.8%, Chevron (CVX) -1.6%.
• Driving Factors: Optimistic progress in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz alleviating supply disruption concerns, putting downward pressure on oil prices and weakening risk premiums for energy stocks.

Defensive/Consumer Staples Sector slightly rose 0.6%-1.1%

• Representative Stocks: Procter & Gamble (PG) +0.9%, Coca-Cola (KO) +0.7%.
• Driving Factors: In the context of easing geopolitical uncertainty but ongoing macro inflation concerns, investors are partially shifting towards more defensive consumer staples, seeking stability.

Other Noteworthy Sectors:

• Industrials/Infrastructures moderately rose, boosted by the EU's massive investment plan under the Chip Act 2.0, benefiting supply chain-related stocks.
• Overall Market: Clear sector rotation, with the AI growth theme continuing to be strong, while cyclical sectors showed divergence influenced by geopolitical expectation shifts, reflecting that investors remain cautiously balanced amid warming risk appetite.

III. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. Dell Technologies (DELL) - Earnings Significantly Exceed Expectations Event Overview: Dell's Q1 revenue reached $23.4 billion, a 5% year-on-year increase, with Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) revenue of $10.3 billion, up 12% year-on-year, and server and networking business hitting a historical high of $6.3 billion, up 16% year-on-year. AI server orders reached $12.1 billion, far exceeding the total shipments for the previous fiscal year, with an AI backlog of $14.4 billion. The company expects AI server shipments in Q2 to be around $7 billion, with guidance significantly raised, highlighting the acceleration point of enterprise AI capital expenditure shifting from pilot phases to large-scale deployment.

Market Interpretation: Investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have significantly raised their target prices, believing Dell has a unique advantage in full-stack integration capabilities for AI servers, and its flexible financing and deployment services help enterprise clients lower transformation barriers. Analysts point out that although memory supply chain remains a bottleneck, the $14.4 billion backlog provides extremely high visibility, with FY2026 AI server revenue expected to reach the $15-16 billion range, significantly higher than previous market expectations.

Investment Insight: The AI CapEx cycle is entering a validation phase, and Dell, as a midstream integrator, has far more resilience than pure chip manufacturers. Investors should closely track its backlog conversion rate and gross margin changes as leading indicators for assessing the sustainability of overall AI infrastructure demand, avoiding blind chasing at high levels.

2. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) - Strong Demand for AI Servers Resonates Event Overview: As a core partner of Dell, Super Micro has seen accelerated growth in orders for liquid-cooled, high-density GPU servers, directly benefiting from the conversion demand of Dell's $14.4 billion AI backlog. The company quickly responds to customized demands amid the global data center expansion wave, with Q3 FY2026 revenue reaching $10.24 billion, and the AI server business proportion continuing to rise, reflecting a tight supply chain pattern driven by both hyperscalers and enterprise clients.

Market Interpretation: Investment banks generally view SMCI's flexibility and delivery speed in the AI server assembly segment positively, but also warn of supply chain stability and gross margin volatility risks. Institutions believe that the ecological closed loop formed with NVIDIA and Dell will continue to release growth momentum in 2026-2027, especially as liquid cooling technology becomes an industry standard, SMCI's market share is expected to further expand.

Investment Insight: The β value in the downstream segment of AI infrastructure is higher, making it suitable as a tool for verifying cyclical strength. Investors are advised to dynamically assess the authenticity of demand by combining Dell's order data with SMCI's quarterly shipment volumes, and seek phase-specific allocation opportunities amid supply chain events.

3. Microsoft (MSFT) - AI Cloud Services Drive Growth Event Overview: Microsoft's stock price rose about 3.47%, reported at $426.99. The integration progress of AI into the Azure cloud platform exceeded expectations, with accelerated deployment of enterprise-level Copilot and OpenAI models, leading to a 40% growth in Azure for Q3 FY2026, with significant contributions from the intelligent cloud business. In the context of macro inflation concerns, its software subscription model demonstrates strong defensive attributes, with AI-related annual revenue exceeding $37 billion.

Market Interpretation: Investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley maintain top ratings, believing that Microsoft's first-mover advantage in enterprise AI deployment scenarios and its ecosystem binding (OpenAI collaboration) make it the most certain beneficiary at the application layer of AI. Some analysts remind to pay attention to the acceptance of transferring large model training costs to customers, as well as the potential impact of antitrust regulations on cloud market concentration, but overall remain optimistic about its pricing power in transitioning from "selling computing power" to "selling solutions."

Investment Insight: Compared to hardware stocks, platform giants have stronger cash flow stability and anti-cyclical capabilities during the AI cycle. Investors should focus on Azure's sequential growth and AI revenue proportion as key leading indicators for assessing the commercialization process of AI.

4. Broadcom (AVGO) - Benefiting from Semiconductor Industry Chain Synergy Event Overview: Broadcom's stock price rose moderately along with the AI hardware sector, with strong demand for its custom AI accelerators and data center network solutions. The company expects AI chip revenue to exceed $100 billion by 2027, having secured large TPU orders from giants like Anthropic (1GW in 2026, 3GW in 2027), directly linked to Dell's AI server orders, highlighting its strategic position in the high-performance computing supply chain.

Market Interpretation: Investment banks like Bernstein and Mizuho maintain strong buy ratings, emphasizing Broadcom's moat in custom ASIC and 400G SerDes technologies, as well as the anti-cyclical capabilities brought by its diversified customer base (cloud vendors + enterprises). Analysts believe that although short-term valuations are high, the dual drivers of AI training and inference will support its long-term growth, with significant supply chain scale advantages.

Investment Insight: The value of the semiconductor industry chain's "selling shovel" role is highlighted, making it suitable as a core defensive AI allocation. It is recommended to diversify allocations upstream and downstream, focusing on tracking the increase in AI revenue proportion and gross margin stability, capturing the structural dividend as the industry transitions from hardware expansion to application landing.

5. NVIDIA (NVDA) - AI Chip Demand Remains High Event Overview: NVIDIA's stock price rose 0.78%, reported at $214.25. Q1 revenue reached $44.1 billion, a 69% year-on-year increase, with data center business revenue of $39.1 billion, up 73% year-on-year. The Blackwell NVL72 AI supercomputer has entered large-scale production, with AI inference token generation increasing tenfold within a year, and global sovereign AI infrastructure demand continues to surge.

Market Interpretation: Analysts generally view its long-term growth potential positively, and although short-term valuations are high, the supply-demand gap for AI computing power is expected to persist long-term. Institutions point out that NVIDIA's leading position in full-stack AI solutions (from GPUs to software ecosystems) allows it to effectively capture the global AI capital expenditure wave, but caution against geopolitical export restrictions and competitive pressures.

Investment Insight: AI hardware remains the mid-term mainline, but it is necessary to verify demand authenticity by combining downstream partners' (Dell, SMCI) earnings reports. It is recommended to adopt a core + satellite allocation strategy to mitigate concentration risks of single stocks, while also paying attention to the shipment rhythm of Blackwell as a mid-term catalyst.

6. Anthropic - Latest Valuation Reaches $965 Billion Event Overview: AI startup Anthropic's latest financing valuation has risen to $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI, making it one of the most valuable AI companies globally, reflecting investors' high expectations for the Claude model and related ecosystem. Market Interpretation: Several investment banks believe it has strong competitiveness in the enterprise-level AI application field, but the high valuation has also sparked discussions on sustainability. Investment Insight: The AI track is becoming more differentiated, with significant valuation premiums for leading players, focusing on actual revenue conversion capabilities.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that Bitcoin whales (wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, excluding exchanges and mining pools) and dolphins (wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, mainly dominated by ETFs and corporate treasury companies) have seen accumulation stagnate, with demand remaining weak. The year-on-year contraction rate of whale balances is the fastest this year, while dolphin balance growth rate, although still positive, has significantly slowed, with monthly growth rates approaching zero, indicating that the structural demand engine is in a continuous slowdown. Although long-term holders' supply has reached a record 15.8 million BTC, this is not a bullish signal, as short-term demand is too weak to absorb the tokens of long-term holders.

2. The latest official proof document shows that Tether's USAT supply has increased nearly 540% month-on-month, from about 22 million in March to over 140 million in April, with total reserves rising to about $141 million, indicating a reserve surplus of about $327,000 relative to the circulating token quantity.

3. Grayscale disclosed in its updated document for the Hyperliquid ETF that it is negotiating with Hyper Holdings Global LP to plan to exchange about 2 million HYPE tokens (approximately $115 million) for fund shares as seed investment. The document mainly changes the fund name from "Grayscale HYPE ETF" to "Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF," with the Nasdaq code HYPG.

4. An over-the-counter trading whale 0xFB7 again bought 20,000 ETH (worth $40.48 million) from FalconX and sent 50 million USDT to Wintermute, possibly for further purchases.

5. US SEC Chairman Paul Atkins posted that the regulatory agency's long-standing opposition to new technologies and innovations has led to crypto entrepreneurs going overseas, but this phase "has ended." He stated that under the leadership of the Trump administration, the SEC will work with the government and Congress to provide "much-needed regulatory clarity" for the digital asset market and promote related legislative proposals (including the "Clarity Act" for digital assets) to clarify compliance paths and regulatory boundaries.

6. Digital asset management company Grayscale has paused its preparations for public listing in the US due to the current unfavorable market environment, expecting to restart the related process no earlier than the fourth quarter of this year. Grayscale is part of DCG and is the issuer of several crypto investment products, including the Bitcoin spot ETF GBTC.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Important Event Forecasts

• US-Iran Negotiation Progress: Continue to monitor the latest news on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which will directly impact oil prices and risk assets.
• Corporate Earnings Season: More tech giants' earnings will be disclosed, with the AI theme remaining the focus.

May 29 (Friday)

1. US May Chicago PMI Release
2. 2028 FOMC Voting Member, Kansas Fed President George to Speak
3. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman to Speak

Institutional Views: Analysts from multiple investment banks point out that despite recurring geopolitical risks, ceasefire expectations have significantly boosted risk appetite, with the three major US stock indices continuously hitting new highs, reflecting market confidence in economic soft landing and AI growth. Institutions like Goldman Sachs remind that low oil inventories and potential supply recovery will jointly suppress oil prices, while hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials limit rate cut space, suggesting that the dollar and US Treasury yields may maintain range-bound fluctuations. In the cryptocurrency market, after the leverage washout, a phase of repair may be welcomed, but ETF outflows indicate short-term caution in capital. Overall, AI and tech growth remain the mid-term mainline, and investors are advised to balance geopolitical risks with fundamental opportunities, seeking structural layouts amid volatility.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.