CICC: The Federal Reserve will not cut or raise interest rates this year, and we need to be wary of the risk of total demand rebounding

According to Jinshi reports, the research report from CICC believes that the current inflation in the United States is still primarily driven by structural factors such as energy shocks, and cyclical inflation is not yet evident. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the risks of total demand recovery brought about by the expansion of AI capital expenditures and improvements in employment. We maintain the baseline judgment that the Federal Reserve will not lower or raise interest rates this year, and we expect the Fed's stance to remain hawkish. One of Waller's primary tasks upon taking office is to rebuild the credibility of policy.