Trump's statement triggered market fluctuations, with crypto concept stocks and BTC rising sharply

This morning, after the U.S. stock market closed, cryptocurrency-related stocks collectively strengthened. Circle (CRCL) rose by 6.24%, Bitmine increased by 8.29%, but Strategy (MSTR) remained almost unchanged due to news of "selling coins" again.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin itself performed strongly—rising from around $62,000 to nearly $65,000.

The person responsible for this widespread increase in cryptocurrency concepts is none other than the U.S. President who has repeatedly influenced the market with his statements: Trump.

1. A Surge Triggered by a Single Sentence

The cause of the situation is simple.

With the recent official launch of "Trump Accounts," discussions about the long bull market in U.S. stocks have heated up again. When a reporter asked whether "Trump Accounts might include Bitcoin in the future," Trump's response was:

"It could happen."

Just this vague statement, without any specific policy commitment, was enough to send the Bitcoin market and U.S. cryptocurrency concept stocks soaring. This reflects Trump's direct influence on market sentiment—there's no need for specific policies to take effect; just one statement can trigger a market repricing. BTC quickly rose from around $62,000 to nearly $65,000, with cryptocurrency concept stocks following suit. The market is extremely sensitive to any signals related to "officially recognized cryptocurrencies," and Trump is the one who knows how to press this button best.

While the rise is certainly pleasing, it raises the question: how long can this sentiment-driven rally last?

2. On-chain Data Shows: Money Hasn't Arrived Yet

Although the rise is pleasing, we should also observe whether there is indeed real money flowing in. The reality is: the president's statements have not yet translated into real capital.

According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's capital flow over the past 30 days has remained in a net outflow state. Although market sentiment has warmed due to Trump's statements, in reality, capital has not entered on a large scale. The price increase is more driven by the reallocation of existing funds and short covering, rather than new long-term capital entering at low levels.

This is an important distinction. Price increases driven by capital inflows are usually more sustainable and healthier; those driven by sentiment and presidential statements tend to come quickly and leave just as fast. The current situation appears to be closer to the latter.

3. Four-Year Cycle Law: How Far Are We from the Signal of the Bear Bottom?

In addition to the lack of on-chain capital, another indicator that warrants caution is the MVRV ratio.

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is one of the most commonly used tools for cycle judgment in the cryptocurrency space. Simply put, it measures the current market price of Bitcoin relative to its "realized value" (the average price at which all Bitcoins last moved). When MVRV falls below 1, it means that the overall market price of Bitcoin is below its average cost basis—entering the "below fair value" zone. Historically, the bottom of each major bear market for Bitcoin has seen MVRV drop below 1.

Just last Tuesday, Bitcoin's MVRV briefly fell to its lowest point of the year around 1.1. This indicates that the market is very close to the bottom of the cycle but has not yet truly "broken 1." With the recent price rebound, MVRV has risen back to around 1.2.

From the perspective of cycle law, whether the current price rebound is a technical recovery at the bottom of the bear market or the beginning of a trend reversal remains to be seen. If MVRV dips again and falls below 1, historical patterns show that this usually corresponds to a clearer signal of a cycle bottom; however, as of now, this signal has not yet appeared.

4. Institutionalization of Statements: More Like an Alarm in the Short Term

Finally, let's discuss a deeper issue—Trump's "statement-driven rally" is transitioning from a personal behavior to an institutionalized market force.

The launch of "Trump Accounts" marks the first direct connection between the White House and a public policy tool explicitly tied to U.S. stock prices. This account ties the U.S. government, newborn benefits, the S&P 500 index, and the entire U.S. stock market together. Now, Trump has added hints of cryptocurrency to this foundation.

What does this mean? It means that high-level statements are becoming more normalized in their impact on market pricing. A single word from the president can directly influence the pricing of U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, and he is precisely someone who understands this well and enjoys it.

For retail investors, this is not necessarily a signal to "follow the president to buy stocks/coins and make money." On the contrary, it is more like a signal that requires heightened vigilance: in a mechanism where someone else is responsible for the rally and you are responsible for catching the fall, you need to think carefully about whether you are a shareholder or just providing liquidity for others.

Short-term statements can create fleeting euphoria but cannot replace the repair of fundamentals and real capital inflows. When the excitement fades, those who chased in at high prices often find themselves footing the bill for someone else's profits.

5. In Conclusion

Trump's statement "it could happen" brought BTC close to $65,000 overnight. This kind of market is exciting but also dangerous.

Considering on-chain data, cycle indicators, and the institutionalization trend of statements' impact on the market, there remains uncertainty in the current market.

For investors looking to participate in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency concept stock trading, the BIT platform offers real trading channels covering cryptocurrencies like BTC and cryptocurrency concept stocks like CRCL and MSTR. You can deposit instantly 24/7 using stablecoins and execute trades at the first opportunity during market fluctuations. But no matter what tools you use for trading, please remember one principle: in a market where someone else is responsible for the rally, do not easily become someone else's liquidity.

Disclaimer

This article is a submission from a guest author, and the market observations, data analysis, and judgments contained herein represent the author's personal views and do not represent the official position or research opinions of the BIT platform, nor do they constitute any investment advice or solicitation. BIT makes no express or implied guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content of this article. The prices and data mentioned are as of the time of publication and may become invalid with market changes. Cryptocurrencies and related securities are high-volatility assets, and investments carry the risk of principal loss; past performance does not indicate future results. Investors should independently assess whether to participate in trading and consult independent professional advisors if necessary.