Bitget UEX Daily Report | Besant claims that the agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is about to be reached; Dow and S&P hit new highs; Circle, SanDisk, and Western Digital's performance is coming (August 5, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

September rate hike probability falls to 58.4%, market focuses on subsequent data

• CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rises to 41.6%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike drops to 58.4%; the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point hike in October is 53.9%, and a 50 basis point hike is 15.5%.
• The market is still digesting the previous reiteration by Waller of the 2% inflation target and the uncertainty of the policy path.
• The recent sharp drop in oil prices helps alleviate inflation concerns, but employment data remains a key pricing anchor.

Market Impact: The marginal cooling of rate hike expectations resonates with the decline in oil prices, providing short-term support for risk assets, but volatility will continue until data such as non-farm payrolls is released.

International Commodities

Bessent says agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, oil prices continue to fall sharply

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz could be reached on the 4th or 5th; Secretary of State Rubio said negotiations have made progress but are not yet finalized.
• According to insiders, Iran has softened its stance, abandoning the demand for full control over two-way shipping and instead proposing to manage incoming vessels while retaining oversight of outgoing vessels; it is also considering allowing European participation in mine clearance.
• Brent crude oil has fallen back below $80, as the market digests expectations of the strait reopening.

Market Impact: Expectations of geopolitical easing continue to suppress oil risk premiums, with oil prices falling sharply, significantly alleviating short-term inflation pressures. The actual implementation of the agreement and the status of navigation recovery remain core variables.

Macroeconomic Policy

White House advances AI framework, excludes open-source models; Jones Act exemption may be extended

• The White House's voluntary AI safety testing framework defines "covered frontier models" as closed-source models with advanced capabilities that involve national security risks, excluding open-source models; details of the framework are not planned to be publicly released.
• The White House is expected to extend the exemption period for the Jones Act to alleviate gasoline price pressures, with the current exemption set to expire on August 16.
• Anthropic signs another multi-billion dollar computing power procurement agreement.

Market Impact: The advancement of the AI regulatory framework reduces long-term uncertainty, but the exclusion of open-source models and the lack of public details raise concerns; the extension of the Jones Act exemption helps stabilize energy supply expectations.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time Updates)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,081/ounce, +0.1%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $60.0/ounce, +0.23%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $75.39/barrel, -0.51%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $76.53/barrel, -0.36%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 99.85, slight fluctuations

Driving Factors Analysis: Bessent's statement that "an agreement is imminent" further lowers oil risk premiums, with WTI and Brent experiencing significant declines, alleviating inflation concerns. Gold and silver show divergent performance against the backdrop of falling oil prices and rising risk appetite, with silver being more elastic. The asset linkage logic is clear: geopolitical easing → falling oil prices → cooling inflation expectations → marginal retreat of Fed rate hike bets → benefiting risk assets. Short-term commodity volatility remains highly dependent on the actual implementation of the strait agreement and the progress of navigation recovery.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $63,985, +0.91%
• ETH: Approximately $1,863, +0.65%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.28 trillion
• Market Liquidation Situation: $204 million total liquidations in 24h, $137 million in short liquidations
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price approximately $63,985, with a large concentration of short liquidations between $64,500 and $65,500; if this area is broken, it may trigger further short squeeze. There remains significant long liquidation pressure between $62,000 and $63,500, with short-term prices in a dense liquidation zone, leading to high volatility risk.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $170 million yesterday, with a dynamic net inflow of $40 million today.

Driving Factors Analysis: Geopolitical easing and the rebound of U.S. tech stocks boost risk appetite, stabilizing the overall crypto market. BTC shows relatively stable performance, while ETH has limited elasticity. The scale of leveraged liquidations is decreasing, and the balance of long and short forces is trending towards equilibrium. ETF fund flows remain a key factor constraining upward movement. On a macro level, the drop in oil prices and cooling rate hike expectations provide support, with short-term fluctuations likely maintaining a consolidation pattern, focusing on the emotional transmission of the strait agreement's implementation.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 54,085.88 points (+1.71%), setting a new historical high
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,736.52 points (+1.79%), setting a new historical high
• NASDAQ: Closed at 26,584.99 points (+2.59%), driven by strong tech and semiconductor sectors

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $211.94 (+2.56%)
• AAPL: $309.38 (+1.96%)
• MSFT: $492.81 (+1.06%)
• GOOGL: $377.65 (+1.11%)
• AMZN: $277.42 (-2.32%)
• META: $587.94 (-0.39%)
• TSLA: $327.35 (+1.64%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: On Tuesday, all three major U.S. stock indices rose, with both the Dow and S&P setting historical highs. The semiconductor and storage sectors were strong, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising over 6%. Palantir's earnings significantly exceeded expectations, soaring nearly 30%, becoming a focal point, with chip stocks like Intel and AMD following suit. Amazon saw a slight pullback, while Meta remained close to flat. Overall, driven by geopolitical easing and AI software earnings realization, the differentiation between hardware and software has somewhat eased, with market risk appetite clearly rebounding.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductors / Storage

• Representative stocks: Intel (+11%), AMD (+7%), Micron (+8%), SanDisk (+11%)
• Driving Factors: AI demand expectations recovery and geopolitical easing boost sentiment, optimistic sentiment in the storage cycle rebounds.

Optical Communication

• Representative stocks: Applied Optoelectronics (+19%), Coherent (+12%), Lumentum (+9%)
• Driving Factors: Continued funding recognition of AI data center optical module demand.

AI Application Software

• Representative stocks: Palantir (+29%), Datadog/Shopify (+5%)
• Driving Factors: Palantir's earnings and guidance both exceeded expectations, reinforcing the narrative of software monetization.

# 3. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Palantir (PLTR) - Earnings significantly exceed expectations, stock price surges nearly 30%

Event Overview: Palantir's Q2 revenue reached $1.94 billion (market expectation $1.81 billion), with adjusted EPS of $0.41 (expected $0.35), both significantly exceeding expectations. U.S. commercial revenue surged 149% year-over-year to $764 million, and U.S. government revenue also grew by 90%. The company subsequently raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.15-$8.16 billion (previously about $7.65 billion), and adjusted operating profit guidance was also raised to $4.89-$4.9 billion. The stock price surged nearly 30% in after-hours and the following day's trading, becoming one of the strongest stocks in the market that day.

Market Interpretation: The dual exceedance of earnings and guidance significantly strengthens the narrative of "AI software monetization." The market previously had doubts about the capital expenditure return cycle of the hardware chain, while Palantir proved the rapid realization capability of the software side with actual commercial orders and high profit margins. Funds are more willing to pay a premium for validated, scalable AI application revenues rather than relying solely on hardware shipment expectations. This also explains why its stock price elasticity far exceeds that of semiconductor peers during the same period.

Investment Insight: The path to AI software realization is gaining higher weight, but current valuations are already high. Future focus should be on the speed of large order conversions, whether the growth rate of U.S. commercial business can be sustained, and whether profit margin expansion is sustainable.

2. Intel (INTC) - Surges nearly 11%, semiconductor sentiment recovers

Event Overview: Intel's stock price surged nearly 11% on Tuesday, becoming one of the leading stocks in the semiconductor sector, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose over 6%. Intel has long lagged behind competitors in AI transformation and foundry business progress, and this rebound is significantly higher than that of leaders like NVIDIA and AMD.

Market Interpretation: Expectations of geopolitical easing and the recovery of AI demand sentiment jointly drive capital back into the chip sector. As a previously oversold "lagging stock," Intel has higher elasticity. The market is beginning to reassess its progress in catching up on advanced processes, expanding foundry customers, and the realization of government subsidies, with short-term trading attributes significantly enhanced.

Investment Insight: The semiconductor cycle and downstream AI capital expenditure rhythm remain core pricing factors. Intel's rebound reflects more of a sentiment recovery and capital rotation; future observation should focus on the actual customer onboarding progress and whether improvements in foundry business profitability can support higher valuations.

3. Amazon (AMZN) - Slight pullback, market cap remains high

Event Overview: Amazon's stock price fell about 2.3% on Tuesday, ending a previous streak of gains. The company's market cap had previously surpassed $3 trillion for the first time and completed a full $50 billion investment in OpenAI.

Market Interpretation: Against the backdrop of a strong rebound in the overall tech and semiconductor sectors, Amazon's relative underperformance reflects more of a technical profit-taking after a prior surge rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. The market's focus on the growth rate of its cloud business (AWS) and the alignment with capital expenditures remains, but the logic of equity binding with OpenAI and positioning in AI infrastructure has not changed. Funds are currently more inclined to chase stocks with higher elasticity in software and hardware.

Investment Insight: Whether the growth rate of the cloud business can continue to absorb higher levels of capital expenditure remains key to determining mid-term valuation space. After surpassing the market cap threshold, the pace of digestion and subsequent guidance will be more important.

4. NVIDIA (NVDA) - Rises over 2.5%, following semiconductor rebound

Event Overview: NVIDIA's stock price rose about 2.56%, following the strength of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, but the increase was noticeably weaker than that of more elastic stocks like Intel and AMD. The market cap continues to maintain above $5 trillion.

Market Interpretation: As a core supplier of AI computing power, NVIDIA is highly sensitive to capital expenditure guidance from downstream major clients and geopolitical sentiment. This rebound is more a result of overall sector sentiment recovery rather than an independent catalyst. Compared to cloud software companies with "realized revenue," the market remains cautious about the return cycle of the hardware chain, leading to relatively restrained elasticity.

Investment Insight: The long-term demand logic for AI computing power remains unchanged, but short-term volatility still depends on the spending rhythm of major clients and the evolution of the competitive landscape. Attention should be paid to profit-taking pressure after sentiment recovery.

5. Caterpillar (CAT) - Earnings exceed expectations, industrial stocks strengthen

Event Overview: Caterpillar reported strong Q2 earnings, with revenue and profit both exceeding expectations, leading to a significant rise in stock price and boosting the industrial sector. The company benefits from resilience in demand for infrastructure, energy, and mining equipment.

Market Interpretation: In a market dominated by the AI theme, Caterpillar provides "non-AI" growth validation with actual data on the real economy and capital expenditure demand. The sharp drop in oil prices helps reduce end customer costs, further supporting expectations for equipment demand. Industrial stocks and AI software complement each other, indicating that market risk appetite is expanding from a single theme to a more balanced direction.

Investment Insight: The resilience of industrial and infrastructure demand is worth continuous attention. Cost improvements and order visibility under falling oil prices will determine whether its subsequent performance is sustainable.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. According to CoinDesk, Joseph Goh, head of crypto investment bank Areta's Asia-Pacific region, pointed out that Samsung is likely to become a major distributor of stablecoins, as "distribution channels are the real scarce resource," and Samsung's extensive distribution channels will give it an advantage. Goh further stated that the wallet announcement locks in distribution channels, with SDS and Dunamu providing underlying infrastructure, and Samsung aims to simultaneously deploy USD and KRW stablecoins. Previously, Samsung announced it would add native stablecoin functionality to over 800 million Galaxy smartphones in Samsung Wallet, including fiat-linked savings and payment accounts.

2. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk stated during the company's first earnings call that SpaceX's future AI services will run "exclusively" on NVIDIA systems. Musk said the company believes NVIDIA's Vera Rubin architecture is the "best AI computing architecture." Musk revealed that SpaceX expects its computing power to exceed 2 gigawatts (GW) by the end of this year and approach 10 GW by the end of next year. The company plans to deploy NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 rack-level systems on the ground and in space, using them for the "Starmind" satellite project, with related satellites expected to start launching next year.

3. Samsung Electronics launched its V10 Bonding V-NAND, or BV-NAND prototype product, at the Future Memory and Storage Conference (FMS) held in Santa Clara, California. This chip features over 400 layers and employs a new wafer bonding architecture to improve storage density and enhance performance.

4. Cloudflare is launching a programmable wallet that allows AI agents to use stablecoins to pay for APIs, data, and online content. Users can now apply for a unique identifier for Cloudflare Wallet, with recharge and payment authorization features to be launched later. The wallet is divided into account wallets (for individuals and organizations to deposit funds and control spending) and virtual wallets (allowing agents to pay on behalf via API keys).

5. SpaceX released its first quarterly report since going public, with Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $6.9 billion, and net losses narrowed to $541 million, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $3.5 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year. According to SEC filings, SpaceX holds 18,712 bitcoins, and due to a 33% drop in bitcoin prices in Q2, the value of its holdings fell from $1.64 billion at the end of 2025 to $1.1 billion, resulting in an unrealized loss of about $540 million. The company's capital expenditures for the quarter reached $18.4 billion, primarily for AI infrastructure investments. The day after the earnings report (August 6), approximately 912 million shares held by employees and early investors will be unlocked, potentially putting selling pressure on the stock price. In after-hours trading, SPCX fell 6% to $118, after closing up nearly 10% in regular trading that day.

6. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin has recently fluctuated between $60,000 and $67,000, with over 3% of the BTC supply, approximately 515,000 BTC, having last traded around $63,000; another 2% of the supply, about 362,000 BTC, is concentrated in the $61,000 region. Glassnode states that currently, only the supply concentration in the $78,000 to $82,000 range is higher than that in the $63,000 region, which corresponds to Bitcoin's peak in May.

Additionally, the current price of Bitcoin is nearly coinciding with its 200-week moving average, which is currently about $63,657, while the BTC price is about $63,822, indicating strong historical accumulation in this area. From the 30-day cumulative trend score, various types of investors are currently in a buying mode, with retail investors showing the strongest buying power; at the same time, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC are also showing significant accumulation behavior.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|----|----|-------------------|-------| | After Hours | U.S. | Earnings from SanDisk, Western Digital, Circle, etc. | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | This Week | U.S. | Non-farm employment data, etc. | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

August 5 (Wednesday)

1. U.S. to release July ADP employment report, ISM non-manufacturing PMI;
2. ★★★★ Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk to release earnings before market opens, revealing the latest landscape of the weight-loss drug market;
3. ★★★★ SanDisk, Western Digital to release earnings after market closes, focusing on enterprise SSD, HBM, and data center storage demand;
4. ★★★ Circle, Disney (before market opens), AppLovin, Figma, IonQ (after market closes) to release earnings.
   August 6 (Thursday)
5. U.S. to release initial jobless claims for the week, Challenger layoffs data;
6. ★★★★★ SpaceX to unlock approximately 9.115 billion shares, with a potential market value of nearly $100 billion, setting a record for a single unlock in U.S. stocks, testing liquidity;
7. Federal Reserve officials Musalem and Barkin to speak;
8. ★★★ AAOI, MP (after market closes) to release earnings.
   August 7 (Friday)
9. ★★★★★ U.S. to release July non-farm employment data (expected to increase by 90,000, previous value 57,000), unemployment rate (expected 4.3%, previous value 4.2%), exceeding 100,000 or boosting confidence in the labor market and raising bets for a September rate hike;
10. U.S. to release New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations and other data;
11. ★★★ OKLO, VST (before market opens) to release earnings.

Institutional Views:

Analysts generally believe that Bessent's statement that "an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is imminent" continues to suppress oil risk premiums, alleviating inflation concerns and providing support for risk assets. The Dow and S&P set historical highs, reflecting the resonance of geopolitical easing and earnings realization. Palantir's earnings significantly exceeding expectations reinforces the narrative of AI software monetization, with sentiment in semiconductors and storage recovering. The crypto market follows suit in stabilizing, but ETF fund flows remain weak. The overall consensus is that geopolitical easing and AI earnings realization are the current main themes, requiring close monitoring of the implementation of the strait agreement and subsequent non-farm data.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.