Bitget UEX Daily Report | Dow Jones continues to set historical highs, gold approaches 4300; SanDisk Western Digital's guidance falls short of expectations, sharply declines; SpaceX welcomes its first major unlock (August 6, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Updates

Federal Reserve Governor Cook: Prepared to Support Rate Hikes if Inflation Does Not Slow

• Federal Reserve Governor Cook reiterated that if inflation does not continue to decline, she is prepared to take action to support interest rate hikes, warning that inflation remaining above target for five consecutive years will increase its stickiness risk in prices and wages.
• She supported the decision to maintain interest rates in July but emphasized that decision-makers may not have enough time to wait for inflation to return to the 2% target.
• She also noted that the weakening impact of tariffs, falling oil prices, and easing AI-related pressures could provide a buffer for inflation.

Market Impact: Hawkish statements reinforce uncertainty in the policy path, putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks in the short term while supporting demand for the dollar and precious metals as safe havens.

International Commodities

Iran and Oman Reach Agreement on Hormuz Route, Gold Soars and Oil Prices Stabilize

• A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on the geographical coordinates for a new safe navigation route for commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with a joint statement entering the final approval stage.
• However, it emphasized that the agreement does not mean the strait will immediately resume safe navigation, as threats such as the U.S. maritime blockade remain.
• Additionally, reports indicate that Iran is seeking to charge a fee of 5%-7% of the cargo value for transiting vessels.

Market Impact: Progress in strait negotiations continues to suppress oil risk premiums, keeping oil prices low. Gold, driven by safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar, surged significantly, approaching the $4,300 mark.

Macroeconomic Policy

Major Restructuring in Google's AI Department; SpaceX Faces First Large-Scale Unlocking

• Google has made significant leadership changes in its AI department.
• SpaceX will face its first large-scale unlocking of shares post-IPO (approximately 912 million shares), with a potential market value nearing $100 billion, setting a record for a single unlocking in U.S. stocks.
• Goldman Sachs continues to support Korean stocks, maintaining a target of 12,000 points for the KOSPI; Yardeni believes tech stock valuations are now attractive.

Market Impact: The AI organizational adjustments have sparked short-term market attention on Google's competitiveness; the SpaceX unlocking will test liquidity and market absorption capacity.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,283/ounce, +0.91%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $62.3/ounce, +0.62%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $75.57/barrel, +0.47%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $76.2/barrel, -0.43%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 99.67, -0.01%

Driving Factors Analysis: The agreement between Iran and Oman on the new route in Hormuz continues to suppress oil risk premiums, keeping oil prices in a low oscillation. Gold and silver surged significantly, driven by a weakening dollar, rising safe-haven demand, and low oil prices, with gold approaching $4,300. The asset linkage logic is reflected as: geopolitical negotiation progress → oil prices under pressure → inflation expectations cooling → discussions on Federal Reserve policy space heating up, while safe-haven funds flow into precious metals. Short-term commodity volatility remains highly dependent on the actual resumption of navigation in the strait and non-farm data.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $64,100, +0.94%
• ETH: Approximately $1,909, +2.43%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.29 trillion, +0.9%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h approximately $252 million, with short positions liquidating $170 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price approximately $64,592, with a large number of short liquidations clustered at $65,000--$66,000; if it breaks through and continues to rise, it may trigger further short squeezes. Liquidation pressure for long positions is relatively concentrated at $63,000--$64,000, with the current scale of long and short liquidations significantly expanding, requiring caution for sharp fluctuations after a breakout.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $212 million yesterday, with a dynamic net inflow of $47 million today.

Driving Factors Analysis: With geopolitical easing and divergence in U.S. stocks, the overall cryptocurrency market has stabilized and rebounded. BTC performed relatively steadily, while ETH showed limited elasticity. ETF fund flows provided support for net inflows, and the scale of leveraged liquidations has decreased. On a macro level, low oil prices and strong precious metals reflect a coexistence of safe-haven and risk appetite, with cryptocurrencies likely maintaining a fluctuating upward pattern in the short term, focusing on the impact of non-farm data and SpaceX's unlocking on risk asset sentiment.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at approximately 54,349 points (+0.49%), continuing to set historical highs.
• S&P 500: Closed at approximately 7,723.55 points (-0.17%), slightly retracing.
• Nasdaq: Closed at approximately 26,363 points (-0.83%), with tech stocks under pressure.

Tech Giants Updates

• NVDA: $219.22 (+3.43%)
• AAPL: $311.00 (+0.52%)
• MSFT: $487.46 (-1.09%)
• GOOGL: $362.43 (-4.03%)
• AMZN: $272.65 (-1.72%)
• META: $588.77 (+0.14%)
• TSLA: $321.55 (-1.77%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: On Wednesday, U.S. stocks showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones continuing to set historical highs while the Nasdaq and S&P retraced. Nvidia surged over 3% on news that SpaceX will exclusively use its AI architecture, while Apple saw a slight increase. Google dropped over 4% due to leadership changes in its AI department, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla also retracing. The market showed clear divergence: AI hardware and certainty-related stocks attracted funds, while software and some cloud service providers faced pressure. The significant rise in gold became the focal point, reflecting a resurgence in safe-haven sentiment.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concept

• Representative Stocks: SanDisk, Western Digital (plummeted in after-hours trading), Phison Electronics (-8%)
• Driving Factors: Earnings guidance below market expectations triggered profit-taking.

Semiconductors

• Representative Stocks: Nvidia (+3.4%), AMD (fell over 7%)
• Driving Factors: Nvidia benefited from SpaceX's exclusive architecture news, while AMD's earnings, although exceeding expectations, did not meet the "excellent" standard and faced selling pressure.

Precious Metals Related

• Representative Stocks: Gold-related stocks broadly rose.
• Driving Factors: Spot gold surged over 4%, boosting sector sentiment.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. SanDisk (SNDK) - Earnings Exceed Expectations but Guidance Falls Short, Plummets in After-Hours Trading

Event Overview: SanDisk reported strong Q4 earnings, with revenue and adjusted profits significantly exceeding market expectations, and announced an expansion of its stock buyback authorization. However, the company's revenue guidance midpoint for the next quarter was below Wall Street's previously raised consensus expectations due to the AI storage boom, leading to a significant drop in after-hours stock prices. Market focus quickly shifted from "achieved performance" to "whether future growth can match high valuations."

Market Interpretation: Under the narrative of explosive storage demand driven by AI data centers, investors have raised expectations for storage companies like SanDisk to high levels. While the earnings beat itself was recognized, the guidance failed to further reinforce this optimistic expectation, triggering common profit-taking in high-valuation stocks. The storage sector is highly sensitive to guidance, and any "slightly below expectations" statement could be interpreted as a signal of marginal demand slowdown, even if the fundamentals remain in an expansion cycle.

Investment Insight: The long-term demand logic for AI storage remains unchanged, but short-term stock prices will be more influenced by expectation gaps and fund sentiment. Close monitoring of subsequent actual shipment data, enterprise SSD order visibility, and whether guidance is gradually validated in subsequent quarters is necessary.

2. Nvidia (NVDA) - Rises Over 3%, Benefits from SpaceX's Exclusive Architecture

Event Overview: Nvidia's stock price rose approximately 3.4%, primarily benefiting from SpaceX's clear statement during the earnings call that future AI services will "exclusively" run on Nvidia's Vera Rubin architecture, calling it the "best AI computing architecture." SpaceX also disclosed an aggressive computing power expansion plan.

Market Interpretation: Against the backdrop of overall divergence in the tech sector, with some software and storage stocks under pressure, SpaceX's endorsement provided Nvidia with a rare "certainty" catalyst. In an environment where risk appetite is cautiously rising, funds preferentially flow to hardware leaders with clear large customer lock-ins and long-term computing power demand support. This sharply contrasts with competitors like AMD, which faced selling pressure for "only beating expectations but not reaching excellence," highlighting the market's repricing of leadership premiums.

Investment Insight: Long-term AI computing power demand and ecological barriers remain solid. Short-term performance still depends on the capital expenditure rhythm of large customers, the evolution of the competitive landscape, and the overall pricing of hardware return cycles.

3. Google (GOOGL) - Drops Over 4%, Major Restructuring in AI Department

Event Overview: Google made significant leadership changes in its AI-related departments, and following the news, its stock price dropped over 4%, becoming one of the weakest performers among large tech stocks that day.

Market Interpretation: Organizational changes are often interpreted by the market as signals of strategic execution or internal priority adjustments. In the context of the AI race entering a heated phase, with investors highly sensitive to implementation progress, leadership changes can easily trigger concerns about product rhythm, cloud business synergy, and the gap with competitors like OpenAI. Funds have flowed out of some software and search-related stocks in the short term, shifting towards companies with clearer hardware or performance realization stories.

Investment Insight: Continuous tracking of the new leadership's impact on AI product implementation, Gemini progress, and cloud business commercialization is necessary. Organizational adjustments do not necessarily change long-term competitiveness, but short-term sentiment and fund flows may remain under pressure.

4. AMD (AMD) - Drops Over 7%, Earnings Exceed Expectations but Fail to Meet High Market Standards

Event Overview: AMD's earnings and outlook exceeded market expectations, but analysts and investors deemed the results "good but not excellent," failing to meet the previously significantly raised expectations due to the AI boom, leading to a drop of over 7% in stock price.

Market Interpretation: The current market pricing for AI chip companies has shifted from "growth is sufficient" to "must continuously exceed expectations and strengthen market share narratives." In contrast to Nvidia's exclusive benefit from SpaceX, AMD's performance, while good, lacked sufficiently strong incremental catalysts, leading funds to flow towards more certain leaders. This reflects an ongoing "selection among the best" repricing process within the AI hardware sector.

Investment Insight: Competition in AI chips is intensifying, with market share, gross margin improvement, and large customer onboarding progress becoming key observation indicators. Merely achieving "exceeding expectations" may not be sufficient to support previous high valuations; stronger fundamentals or narrative catalysts are needed.

5. SpaceX (SPCX) - Faces First Large-Scale Unlocking Post-IPO

Event Overview: SpaceX will face its first large-scale unlocking of shares post-IPO, with approximately 912 million shares held by employees and early investors entering circulation, with a potential market value nearing $100 billion, setting a record for a single unlocking in U.S. stocks. The company's first earnings report showed significant revenue growth, but capital expenditures were also high, primarily for AI infrastructure.

Market Interpretation: Large-scale unlockings are a common event post-IPO, but the release of such a volume of shares will significantly test market liquidity and absorption willingness. Short-term selling pressure expectations often manifest before actual sell-offs, especially in a phase where the company's capital expenditures are high and profits have not fully materialized. The market will rebalance between the "unlocking impact" and the "long-term narrative of AI + Starlink."

Investment Insight: Attention should be paid to the actual transaction volume and price reactions post-unlocking, as well as whether the company's AI computing power deployment, Starlink user growth, and capital expenditure efficiency can gradually digest short-term supply pressure. The long-term logic depends on execution rather than the unlocking itself.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought approximately $17.3 million worth of Circle Internet Group stocks and about $19.7 million worth of SpaceX stocks on Wednesday. Circle's stock price rose slightly by 0.05% to $63.28, while SpaceX plummeted by 13.61% to $108.27.

2. Glassnode noted in its latest weekly report that global stock markets and gold reached historical highs, but Bitcoin remained largely stagnant. In the Coldcard incident on July 31, approximately 594 BTC (about $38 million) were stolen within 25 minutes, with on-chain activity continuing for several days—Bitcoin that had not moved for over a year surged to approximately 119,000 coins in three days, about 200 times the stolen amount, but only about one-tenth flowed into exchanges, with the market almost unaffected in price.

The current cryptocurrency market is approaching a bottom through "boredom" rather than panic selling. The 30-day moving average of the selling pressure has reached the low point of this cycle, situated in the historical bottom formation area, but still about one-third higher than the final bottoms of previous bear markets, indicating that the final exhaustion phase has not yet been completed. On the demand side, U.S. spot ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately 65,800 BTC in June (the worst month on record), with corporate reserve purchases failing to offset fund outflows. In the options market, implied volatility for calls has dropped to a historical low of about 23%, while put volatility remains at normal levels, with the market not pricing in significant volatility in either direction, but short-term sentiment fluctuates with minor price movements. Historically, when volatility compresses to a similar extent, it often ultimately breaks upward, but this cycle lacks a demand engine.

3. SanDisk's Q4 revenue for fiscal year 2026 was $8.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 372%, exceeding market expectations of $8.394 billion, compared to $1.901 billion in the same period last year; fiscal year 2026 revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% from the previous year; adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 was $39.25, with analysts expecting $34.37.

4. Iran has been intensively releasing updates on negotiations with Oman regarding shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz. According to a preliminary agreement between the two sides, the existing two shipping lanes in the strait will be closed, replaced by a new temporary route passing through Iranian territorial waters. Iran stated that it will establish a new passage model in the Strait of Hormuz different from the past 60 years, while also indicating that the agreement is not related to "immediate opening of the strait," which depends on whether the U.S. can correct its "violations." On the other hand, the U.S. has been sending signals that a resolution may be seen within 48 hours. Currently, the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels, with shipping in a "limited recovery" phase.

5. CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that large cryptocurrency holders are increasing their holdings of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, indicating that the bear market may have entered its final stage, but the bottom has not yet been confirmed, and prices may still decline further. Moreno pointed out that when prices approach or fall below the realized price, large holders are increasing their positions, reducing downward pressure.

6. Circle recently minted 500 million USDC on the Solana chain. A total of 76.05 billion USDC has been minted on the Solana chain in fiscal year 2026.

7. Strategy stated on platform X: "Our ambition is to become the largest company by market capitalization globally, with a path that includes holding the most capitalized BTC, issuing the most powerful credit tool STRC, and creating the highest quality stock MSTR," indicating that the company's goal is to become the largest company by market capitalization globally by holding the largest Bitcoin assets, issuing the strongest credit tools, and building the best stock assets.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|----|----|-------------|-------| | Today | U.S. | SpaceX Large-Scale Unlocking | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | This Week | U.S. | Non-Farm Employment Data | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

August 6 (Thursday)

1. U.S. to release initial jobless claims for the week and Challenger layoffs data;
2. ★★★★★ SpaceX approximately 9.115 billion shares large-scale unlocking, with a potential market value nearing $100 billion, setting a record for a single unlocking in U.S. stocks, testing liquidity;
3. Federal Reserve officials Musalem and Barkin to speak;
4. ★★★ AAOI, MP (after hours) to release earnings reports. August 7 (Friday)
5. ★★★★★ U.S. to release July non-farm employment data (expected to increase by 90,000, previous value 57,000), unemployment rate (expected 4.3%, previous value 4.2%), exceeding 100,000 or boosting confidence in the labor market and raising bets for a September rate hike;
6. U.S. to release New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations and other data;
7. ★★★ OKLO, VST (pre-market) to release earnings reports.

Institutional Views:

Analysts generally believe that the Dow Jones continuing to set historical highs reflects a rotation of some funds towards certainty and industrial stocks, while the Nasdaq's retracement indicates ongoing divergence within tech. The significant rise in gold highlights the resonance of safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar. SanDisk and Western Digital's guidance falling short of expectations triggered profit-taking in the storage sector, showing high sensitivity of high valuations to expectation gaps. SpaceX's large-scale unlocking will test the market's absorption capacity. The overall consensus is that geopolitical negotiation progress and non-farm data remain the short-term main lines, with the AI theme shifting from sentiment-driven to performance and guidance verification stages.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data.