Bitget UEX Daily Report | Federal Reserve officials adopt a hawkish stance again, CPI sets the path for September; the US-Iran Hormuz deadlock continues; Nvidia clarifies financing plan to ease concerns (August 12, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Federal Reserve officials turn hawkish again, tonight's CPI is the key basis for September's rate hike

• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized that rising prices are the biggest problem in the current economy, and the labor market is "stable but not good."
• Cleveland Fed President Harker stated that multiple rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
• The market is focused on the U.S. July CPI on Wednesday evening Beijing time, expecting an overall year-on-year increase of 3.4% and core inflation of 2.5%; the CME shows that the expectations for maintaining rates and rate hikes in September are roughly the same. Market Impact: Hawkish remarks combined with key inflation data ahead put pressure on short-term interest rate-sensitive assets, leading to a cautious risk appetite; the CPI results will directly influence September's policy pricing.

International Commodities

U.S.-Iran maritime conflict escalates, stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz continues

• Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei stated that the Strait will not reopen unless the U.S. accepts ceasefire conditions (unfreezing assets, ending related regional conflicts).
• The U.S. military fired missiles at a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship heading to an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman; Houthi forces attacked Saudi and Egyptian vessels in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, resulting in crew fatalities. Market Impact: Geopolitical risk premiums support oil prices, concerns about supply disruptions continue, inflation expectations and risk aversion intertwine, leading to increased short-term commodity volatility.

Macroeconomic Policy

Market sentiment is bearish, historical data points to potential rebound space

• The S&P 500 has repeatedly hit new highs, but in the past 25 weeks, bears have outnumbered bulls in 20 weeks, with institutional holdings lagging behind fundamentals.
• 22V Research points out that excessive pessimism historically indicates positive returns in the following 1-6 months; Wells Fargo's sentiment indicator is close to the sell zone after extreme bullishness. Market Impact: The disconnection between sentiment and fundamentals may provide space for subsequent recovery, but in the short term, it remains constrained by CPI and geopolitical factors.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,390/oz, +0.52%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $65.0/oz, +0.5%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $83.9/barrel, +0.96%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $85/barrel, +0.67%
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 99.86%, +0.05%

Driving Factors Analysis: The U.S.-Iran stalemate and Houthi attacks support oil prices, with geopolitical risk premiums continuing. Gold fluctuates between inflation data and safe-haven demand, while silver is relatively independent due to its industrial properties. Hawkish statements from Fed officials limit the upside potential for precious metals. Institutional views suggest that short-term commodities are still jointly dominated by geopolitical factors and the upcoming CPI, with high oil prices potentially reinforcing concerns about inflation stickiness, leading to asset correlations as geopolitical tensions → oil price support → inflation expectations → interest rate path repricing.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $63,765, -0.43%
• ETH: Approximately $1,884, +0.45%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.27 trillion, -0.1%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h approximately $171 million, long positions liquidated $125 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price approximately $63,711, with concentrated long liquidations around $63,000--$63,500; a drop below $63,000 may accelerate long liquidations. Concentrated short liquidations in the $64,000--$65,000 area, if it breaks above $64,000, it may trigger continuous short liquidations and push prices higher.

• BTC Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday's net outflow $145 million, today's dynamic net outflow $42.4 million

Driving Factors Analysis: The retreat in U.S. stock risk appetite and rising oil prices heighten inflation concerns, creating macro pressure on the crypto market. BTC failed to hold the $64,000 level, while ETH showed relative resilience. Liquidations were primarily long positions, indicating stop-loss pressure after upward resistance. Institutional consensus points to a weak oscillation, focusing on tonight's CPI results and the flow of ETF funds.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 53,791.85 points, down 0.34%, closing lower for the second consecutive day
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,728.20 points, down 0.32%
• Nasdaq: Closed at 26,445.45 points, down 0.60%, with the tech sector under significant pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: Approximately $217.50, down 0.02%
• AAPL: Approximately $304.91, down 1.09%
• MSFT: Approximately $503.81, down 0.44%
• GOOGL: Approximately $343.80, down 3.84%
• AMZN: Approximately $272.27, down 2.09%
• META: Approximately $599.12, up 0.71%
• TSLA: Approximately $332.81, up 0.58%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The performance of the seven giants is mixed. Google and Amazon lead the declines, followed by Apple and Microsoft; Meta and Tesla rise against the trend. Nvidia's decline narrowed due to Huang Renxun's clarification of the financing plan. Overall, the market is suppressed by the U.S.-Iran stalemate and hawkish remarks, shifting from the AI theme to a repricing of capital expenditure efficiency and macro risks, with significant differences in individual stock drivers.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductors/Storage relatively resilient and partially rebounding

• Representative Stocks: SK Hynix up approximately 4.7%, Micron up approximately 0.87%, Kioxia up approximately 4.0%.
• Driving Factors: The logic of AI computing power demand remains, with funds flowing back into some hardware segments during the overall pullback.

Optical Communication Concept overall strengthens

• Representative Stocks: CRDO up approximately 3.23%, Mellanox up approximately 1.8%, AAOI up approximately 1.14%.
• Driving Factors: Expectations for AI optical interconnect demand support the sector's rotation.

Cloud Computing Service Providers rise

• Representative Stocks: NEBIUS up approximately 4.95%, CoreWeave up approximately 2.42%.
• Driving Factors: Funds flow back into computing power leasing and AI infrastructure themes.

# 3. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Nvidia (NVDA) - Huang Renxun clarifies financing plan alleviating concerns

Event Overview: The market previously misunderstood Nvidia's potential $500 billion computing power financing plan; Huang Renxun clarified on the X platform: support will not exceed 25% of any single project opportunity and is limited support based on residual value, aimed at supplementing rather than replacing independent underwriters. This move eliminates uncertainty, with 5-year credit default swaps narrowing. Additionally, Nvidia is reportedly developing a trillion-parameter open-source model, Nemotron 4, aimed at expanding the open-source ecosystem and driving GPU demand. CME plans to launch GPU computing power futures. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe the clarification significantly reduces credit risk concerns, shifting the market's perception from "unlimited exposure" to limited support. Analysts focus on the actual operation of the financing platform and the open-source model's impact on the ecosystem. Investment Insight: Short-term sentiment recovery is favorable, but medium-term tracking of AI capital expenditure returns and supply chain execution is still needed.

2. Google (GOOGL) - Leading declines, capital expenditure efficiency under scrutiny

Event Overview: Google's stock price fell approximately 3.84%, becoming one of the largest decliners among the seven giants. The market continues to digest previous capital expenditure increases and the pace of AI investment returns. Market Interpretation: Institutions remain cautious on high capital expenditure tech stocks under macro hawkishness and geopolitical uncertainty, emphasizing the matching of cloud business growth and investment efficiency. Investment Insight: Focus on changes in AI revenue contributions and capital expenditure guidance in subsequent earnings reports.

3. Apple (AAPL) - Following the tech sector decline

Event Overview: Apple fell approximately 1.09%, following the overall tech adjustment. The market is focused on its positioning in the AI and hardware cycle. Market Interpretation: Relatively stable but still dragged down by sector sentiment, institutions are observing the iPhone cycle and service business resilience. Investment Insight: As a relatively defensive tech allocation, tracking the progress of new products and AI functionalities is necessary.

4. Meta (META) - Rising against the trend

Event Overview: Meta rose approximately 0.71%, performing relatively strongly among the seven giants. Market Interpretation: Institutions may hold a relatively optimistic view on its advertising and AI efficiency improvements, with short-term funds flowing back. Investment Insight: Focus on marginal improvement signals in advertising business and AI investments.

5. Tesla (TSLA) - Slightly higher

Event Overview: Tesla rose approximately 0.58%, showing resilience in an overall pressured environment. Market Interpretation: The market remains divided on its delivery and AI/robot narrative, benefiting more from individual stock fund flows in the short term. Investment Insight: High volatility, tracking actual progress in Robotaxi and energy business is necessary.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook report: WTI crude oil price is expected to be $80.88/barrel in 2026, up from a previous expectation of $76.26/barrel. The WTI crude oil price is expected to be $65.39/barrel in 2027, up from a previous expectation of $60.76/barrel. The Brent price is expected to be $86.81/barrel in 2026, up from a previous expectation of $81.91/barrel. The Brent price is expected to be $69.39/barrel in 2027, up from a previous expectation of $64.76/barrel.

2. South Korea's Kiwoom Securities has simultaneously lowered the target stock prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Recently, concerns have risen that the general storage chip industry has peaked, leading more securities firms to lower their target stock price expectations for the "two giants" Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the Korean stock market.

Kiwoom Securities lowered Samsung Electronics' target stock price from 390,000 won to 350,000 won and SK Hynix's target stock price from 2.2 million won to 2.1 million won, but maintained a "buy" rating for both stocks.

3. According to Fox Business, Strategy CEO Phong Le stated that the company will resume purchasing more Bitcoin for the remainder of this year.

4. Pokémon cards have outperformed the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin so far this year. Meanwhile, a number of emerging blockchain platforms are betting on transforming the approximately $13 billion to $15 billion collectibles market through tokenization to enhance the trading liquidity, ownership records, and settlement efficiency of physical collectibles.

5. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that when converting Bitcoin into physical spot Bitcoin ETF shares, investors will not recognize capital gains at the moment, but the original cost basis and holding period will continue, so it is essentially just deferring taxes rather than avoiding them; this mechanism can also be reversed to convert ETF shares back into Bitcoin.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|----|----|--------------|-------| | Evening | U.S. | July CPI (Overall/Core) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

August 12 (Wednesday)

1. ★★★★★ U.S. releases July CPI (market expects overall year-on-year increase of about 3.4%, previous value 3.5%; core year-on-year increase of about 2.5%, previous value 2.6%; month-on-month overall about 0.1%, core about 0.2%), following last week's non-farm data, becoming the most important macro data of the week, directly related to September's Federal Reserve rate hike pricing (current implied probability about 44%);
2. Tencent Holdings releases earnings (focus on gaming, advertising, fintech, and AI capital expenditure/progress);
3. ★★★★ Coherent, Cisco, Nebius post-market (and some pre-market) earnings reports, testing AI network equipment and high-speed optical communication demand; API/EIA crude oil inventory, IEA/OPEC monthly reports are densely released.
   August 13 (Thursday)
4. U.S. releases July PPI and initial jobless claims for the week;
5. ★★★★★ SanDisk Investor Day (Beijing time evening), focusing on NAND supply and demand, capital expenditure, high bandwidth flash (HBF) roadmap, and long-term profit margin targets, setting the tone for the storage sector;
6. Google Made by Google launch event (Pixel 11 series and wearables, Gemini deep integration);
7. Federal Reserve officials Harker and Barkin give speeches;
8. ★★★★ Applied Materials (AMAT) post-market earnings report, focusing on wafer manufacturing, DRAM, advanced packaging, and semiconductor equipment spending guidance; JD.com, SMIC, Hua Hong, and other Chinese concept/semiconductor earnings reports are released simultaneously.
   August 14 (Friday)
9. ★★★★ U.S. releases July retail sales month-on-month, August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value, and 1-year inflation expectations, testing consumption resilience after employment cooling;
10. Deadline for U.S. institutional Q2 13F holdings disclosure, observing changes in large fund allocations in technology, energy, and other sectors.

Institutional Views:

Investment bank analysts believe that the hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials and the upcoming CPI report constitute short-term core variables, combined with the U.S.-Iran maritime conflict stalemate, leading to a cautious market risk appetite. Oil prices gaining geopolitical support may reinforce concerns about inflation stickiness. Nvidia's financing clarification alleviated some credit concerns, but the overall tech sector remains affected by capital expenditure efficiency and macro repricing. The crypto market follows risk assets under pressure. Strategically, it is advised to remain flexible before data releases, prioritizing attention to the inflation results' impact on interest rate paths and risk assets, while maintaining caution on high-valuation growth stocks.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with manual verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.