Rumors of Anthropic's valuation exceeding $2 trillion? The debate over whether AI investments have entered a bubble has sparked renewed discussion

Author: BIT Securities

The US stock market is about to witness another historical moment.

According to media reports and rumors from the secondary market, AI company Anthropic is expected to officially go public as early as October, with a market valuation anticipated to exceed $2 trillion (this figure has not been officially confirmed by the company and is subject to the disclosures in the official prospectus). If this figure materializes, it will set a record for the largest IPO globally, surpassing the previous listing record of SpaceX.

A company that was valued at only about $965 billion during its financing in May 2026 has seen its trading price in the secondary market soar to its current heights due to the rapid growth of the Claude series models. Yet, before this IPO has even landed, an old question has been reignited: Has the AI investment boom already entered the bubble zone?

1. Bulls indeed hold a strong hand

First, let's look at where the supporters' confidence comes from—Anthropic's recently disclosed second-quarter operating data exceeded expectations.

According to the operating data circulating in the market (which has not been officially disclosed by the company, and is subject to the prospectus or official financial reports), Anthropic's quarterly revenue was $11.5 billion, up from only $787 million in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 1,361%; the first quarter of this year was $4.7 billion, meaning it doubled in just three months. On the profitability front, the company has crossed a watershed: it has started making a profit, with the gross margin of its reasoning business jumping from 38% a year ago to over 70%.

The skepticism that "AI companies only invest without output" seems pale in the face of these numbers. Thus, the bulls' narrative is logical: the high valuation reflects the speed of AI commercialization and the long-term penetration of large models into the market.

2. However, the quality of the gross margin raises a question mark

Why has the profit margin surged so quickly? Breaking down the cost structure, the answer lies not within Anthropic itself, but in the list of chip suppliers: Google TPU and Broadcom's custom chips.

The current computing power landscape is as follows—during the training phase, NVIDIA's monopoly remains unshaken; however, spending in the reasoning phase is increasingly shifting towards custom chips, and the larger the business scale, the faster the shift. Anthropic's gross margin increase largely benefits from the declining costs of reasoning, rather than an improvement in pricing power.

This directly impacts an upcoming observation window: NVIDIA's financial report on August 26, where the revenue growth of the reasoning business will become the most intuitive gauge for measuring the progress of this "reasoning migration."

3. The bears' hand: overstretched valuation and liquidity siphoning

Now, let's look at what the skeptics are worried about.

The first concern is the pricing method. The $2 trillion valuation corresponds to revenue expectations for 2028—today's price tag is affixed to a report card two years from now. This pricing demands an almost harsh requirement for growth: if revenue growth slides from tenfold in one year to one or two times in a year, the existing valuation system will lose its support.

The second concern is liquidity. The largest IPO in history means pulling over a hundred billion dollars from the secondary market at once; more troublesome is that OpenAI is also in line behind. By the time Anthropic officially rings the bell, there may not be enough money in the market to go around.

Therefore, two things are worth monitoring: the revenue growth of reasoning in NVIDIA's financial report; and whether the revenue metrics disclosed when Anthropic formally submits its prospectus align with the data circulating in the secondary market—discrepancies often signal the beginning of a story changing its flavor.

4. Stalemate between bulls and bears? Bank of America offers a "dual bet" strategy

Whether AI has entered the bubble zone is a matter of contention between bulls and bears. According to publicly available reports, Michael Hartnett, Chief Strategist at Bank of America Securities, proposed in his latest research report that there is no need to choose sides between bulls and bears; instead, consider allocating two types of assets simultaneously (specific strategy details are subject to the official Bank of America research report, and this article may contain information loss).

His suggestion is to go long on leading AI tech companies while also investing in long-forgotten distressed assets, capturing the returns during the final peak phase of nominal GDP bubbles, while shorting AI-related bonds.

This judgment is supported by a set of data. The Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator fell from 9.7 to 9.3, still remaining in the extreme bullish zone, and the "sell" signal has not been lifted—however, since this signal was triggered in May, global stock markets have instead risen. The flow of funds is also diverging: gold and commodities continue to receive structural inflows, while tech stocks have just experienced the largest weekly outflow in seven weeks, and private clients' stock holdings have risen to historical peaks.

Hartnett cites historical bubble patterns, noting that as dominant bubbles approach their peaks, emerging markets or severely undervalued cyclical assets often benefit from spillover effects; this time, the consumer sector is most likely to take the baton. The reasoning for shorting AI bonds is equally clear: over $1 trillion in AI capital expenditures, coupled with negative cash flow, means a peak in the issuance of related corporate bonds is imminent, making it difficult for prices to rise under the weight of supply.

The core of this strategy can be summarized in one sentence: the most frenzied final phase of a bubble often yields the richest returns—but be careful, your chips cannot all be placed on one side.

Disclaimer: BIT Securities operates its business through its group company BIT (formerly Matrixport) under the entity Matrix Gelephu Pte. Ltd., regulated by the Financial Services Office of Bhutan (GFSO), providing access channels for eligible clients to trade US stocks, with related transactions executed and cleared through registered US brokerage firms. This article is written and provided by an external contributor, and the valuation, financial data, and listing timeline of Anthropic mentioned herein are compiled from publicly available reports and market rumors, and have not been officially confirmed; specific details are subject to the company's official disclosure documents. The views, analyses, and judgments expressed herein represent the author's personal opinions and do not represent the official position of BIT or BIT Research, and BIT does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the related content. The third-party opinions cited in this article (including those of Bank of America Securities strategists) represent their own or individual analysts' opinions and do not represent BIT's position, nor do they guarantee accuracy. This article does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or an invitation to offer. The valuation of unlisted companies and the volatility of AI-related assets are high; past growth rates do not represent future performance, and investors should make independent judgments and seek professional advice.