Bitcoin's volatility has narrowed to historic lows, and traders are turning to AI and prediction markets

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has recently shown unusually calm performance, achieving an annualized volatility of about 42% on the 30th, narrowing the gap with the S&P 500's 18% to the narrowest level on record. After narratives related to Trump and corporate treasury buying, the market has entered a prolonged compression range. Edmond Goh, Global Trading Head at B2C2, stated that retail funds are shifting towards AI stocks, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets; TradFi high-frequency trading and risk models are improving efficiency, with open interest nearing historical lows, further suppressing volatility.

Shiliang Tang, Partner at Monarq Asset Management, mentioned that Bitcoin is in a price stalemate, with upward pressure from corporate treasury sell-offs (such as Strategy, MARA) and limited downward movement due to speculative leverage clearing and net accumulation in long-term wallets. Strategy has sold about 7,000 BTC by 2026. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that institutional ETFs and DAT are driving market maturity, while clarity in U.S. regulation (CLARITY Act) is still pending, and low volatility has led to a decrease in trading volume.

Greg Cipolaro from NYDIG stated that short-term traders are chasing 5x or 10x returns, with target options expanding to Nvidia, gold, perpetual stock contracts, 0DTE options, or sports event contracts. Retail in South Korea is shifting from crypto to domestic AI-related stocks, with Upbit and Bithumb's trading volume significantly dropping year-on-year. Trading in traditional asset perpetuals on crypto platforms and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has seen a significant increase.