1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Kevin Walsh's Jackson Hole Debut Tonight, Market Focus on Anti-Inflation Credibility

• Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh will deliver his inaugural keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday at 22:00 (UTC+8). The core focus will be on the commitment to the inflation target, communication framework, and the Fed's role in a high-debt environment.
• Goldman Sachs expects he will not provide clear guidance for the September interest rate decision, but is more likely to reaffirm the 2% target, explain the communication logic of "saying less and watching market signals," and discuss productivity and global shocks.
• CME data shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates in September is about 63.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is about 36.5%.
  Market Impact: The speech will become a pricing anchor for this week. If the roadmap is still avoided, long-end yields and dollar fluctuations may increase; if the determination to combat inflation is reaffirmed, it may suppress interest rate-sensitive growth stocks in the short term.

International Commodities

U.S. Refuses to Return to June Understanding with Iran, Stalemate in Hormuz Continues

• The Wall Street Journal cites informed sources stating that the Trump administration has repeatedly expressed to mediators its intention not to return to the understanding memorandum reached with Iran in June this year.
• Iranian officials claim they are ready to respond to the U.S. list of conditions, currently only allowing ships to temporarily pass through specific channels, with passage through the Strait subject to a new understanding.
• Bloomberg reports that Venezuela is assessing the feasibility of exiting OPEC, a topic that has appeared in dialogues with the U.S.
  Market Impact: Expectations for diplomatic breakthroughs have cooled, providing geopolitical support for oil prices; concerns about OPEC unity are rising, leading to increased short-term volatility in crude oil, and inflationary narratives remain sticky.

Macroeconomic Policy

Canada Expands Countermeasures Tariffs, Data Center Constraints Persist

• Canada has included copper wire, charcoal, and other items in a 50% countermeasure tariff list, covering approximately $20 billion worth of U.S. goods, with measures effective from September 8.
• The risk of delays or cancellations in planned data centers is still emphasized by institutions, with power and community constraints continuing to affect the pace of AI infrastructure deployment.
  Market Impact: North American trade frictions and power bottlenecks create dual constraints, drawing attention to related equipment and domestic supply chain themes, with expectations for tech capital expenditures becoming more differentiated.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,597/ounce, +0.06%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $69.25/ounce, +0.12%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $83.47/barrel, -0.06%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $88.45/barrel, -0.19%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 99.12, +0.01%

Driving Factors Analysis: The U.S. refusal to return to the June agreement with Iran and the decline in expectations for reopening Hormuz have provided geopolitical support for oil prices. Gold fluctuated at high levels before Walsh's speech, while silver's industrial properties provided relative support. The dollar options market shows increased bullish hedging, indicating traders are unwilling to excessively pile on dollar shorts before the speech. Institutions believe that short-term commodities are dominated by "geopolitical stalemate + policy communication vacuum," with asset linkage reflecting the cooling of negotiation expectations → oil price support → continued inflation stickiness concerns → precious metals and exchange rates awaiting Walsh's guidance.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $80,785, +2.6%
• ETH: Approximately $2,520, +1.2%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.79 trillion, +1.7%
• Market Liquidation Situation: $370 million liquidated in 24h, $226 million in shorts
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC's current price is approximately $80,700, with significant short liquidation pressure accumulating in the $81,000-$82,000 range. If it continues to break through $81,000, it may trigger further short squeezes. Liquidations for longs are relatively concentrated around $78,500-$80,000; if it falls below $80,000, leveraged longs may face accelerated liquidation, and short-term volatility may still amplify.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Net inflow of approximately $232 million on August 26, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $2.8 billion over the past eight trading days.

Driving Factors Analysis: Nvidia's earnings report boosted risk appetite, combined with continuous net inflows into spot ETFs, allowing BTC to regain the $80,000 mark. ETH's elasticity is weaker than BTC, indicating that funds are more inclined towards the "hard asset/devaluation trade" narrative rather than altcoin beta. Institutional consensus points to short-term pricing driven by ETF liquidity and Walsh's speech, with the $82,000-$86,000 range serving as both technical resistance and short liquidation pressure zone.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 53,569.44 points, up 0.20%
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,730.99 points, up 0.72%, with significant contributions from weighted stocks
• Nasdaq: Closed at 26,541.35 points, up 1.57%, led by technology and software

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $228.00, up 8.74%
• AAPL: $314.80, up 0.43%
• MSFT: $506.00, up 1.94%
• GOOGL: $340.80, down 0.35%
• AMZN: $256.90, down 1.30%
• META: $571.20, down 0.86%
• TSLA: $354.25, up 2.44%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: All three major indices rose, but breadth was limited, with equal-weighted indices like the S&P not strengthening in tandem, and gains were highly concentrated in Nvidia and software earnings winners. Nvidia's market capitalization increased by approximately $440 billion in a single day, accounting for most of the index's rise. Apple and Microsoft performed steadily, while Amazon and Google were dragged down by valuation digestion and sector rotation. Software stocks collectively rebounded, indicating that funds are no longer viewing SaaS with a one-size-fits-all bearish outlook but are instead distinguishing between targets with AI monetization capabilities.

Sector Movement Observation

Software/SaaS Rebounds Significantly

• Representative Stocks: Salesforce rose over 22%, CrowdStrike rose over 20%.
• Driving Factors: Earnings and guidance exceeded expectations, with analysts believing the "SaaS apocalypse theory" is an overreaction, as AI implementation is beginning to translate into recurring revenue.

Semiconductors/AI Hardware Lead Gains

• Representative Stocks: Nvidia rose nearly 9%, Intel rose over 4%.
• Driving Factors: Nvidia's demand validation repaired the AI capital expenditure narrative, boosting risk appetite in the computing power chain.

Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks Follow Suit

• Representative Stocks: Related trading platforms and Bitcoin holding targets generally rose.
• Driving Factors: BTC's return to $80,000 and continuous inflows into ETFs provided emotional support.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Nvidia (NVDA) - Breaks "Earnings Day Curse" with Nearly 9% Surge

Event Overview: Nvidia announced its Q2 fiscal year 2027 results, with revenue of $96.2 billion, a 106% year-on-year increase; data center revenue reached $89 billion, a 117% year-on-year increase. The company rarely provided guidance for a 70% revenue growth in fiscal year 2028 and emphasized that the outlook would be higher without supply constraints. The stock surged nearly 9% during regular trading hours, adding approximately $442 billion to its market capitalization, marking the best post-earnings performance since April 2025. The market is also paying attention to reports of its increased investments in the AI ecosystem.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this earnings report simultaneously validated demand strength, guidance visibility, and pricing power. Providing high growth forecasts a year in advance is extremely rare, indicating significantly improved order visibility; "supply constraints" also mean that bottlenecks remain and the logic for price increases has not ended. Analysts remind that the index-level gains are overly concentrated in individual stock weights, and it is necessary to observe whether this will spread to a broader AI chain.
Investment Insight: The medium-term demand logic is strengthened by performance validation, but short-term crowding is increasing, necessitating tracking of supply releases and differentiation in customer capital expenditures.

2. Salesforce (CRM) - Earnings Exceed Expectations and Full-Year Guidance Raised

Event Overview: Salesforce announced its Q2 fiscal year 2027 results, with revenue of $11.3 billion, an 11% year-on-year increase; subscription and support revenue reached $10.8 billion. Remaining performance obligations (cRPO) grew 14% year-on-year to $33.5 billion. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $46.1 billion - $46.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 11% - 12%, and announced a partnership with Anthropic to launch Claudeforce. The stock surged over 22%.
Market Interpretation: Institutions view the increase as a correction to the pricing of "software growth slowdown." The acceleration of cRPO and the raised guidance indicate that AI capabilities are beginning to enter the renewal and expansion phase rather than remaining at the conceptual level. Analysts focus on the split between Informatica's contribution and organic growth, as well as the impact of subsequent mergers and integrations on profitability.
Investment Insight: The core observation point for the software sector's recovery is the quality of recurring revenue, rather than a single thematic trade.

3. CrowdStrike (CRWD) - Record Net New ARR

Event Overview: CrowdStrike announced its Q2 fiscal year 2027 results, with revenue of $1.47 billion, a 26% year-on-year increase; non-GAAP EPS of $0.31. Ending ARR reached $5.84 billion, with a record net new ARR of $333 million, a 51% year-on-year increase. Falcon Flex account ARR doubled year-on-year to $2.29 billion. The company raised its full-year net new ARR growth guidance. The stock rose over 20%.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that cybersecurity is a more rigid segment of AI spending, and the Flex model enhances customer expansion flexibility. International revenue has accelerated for five consecutive quarters, indicating that growth does not solely rely on large North American clients. Analysts focus on whether margin expansion can keep pace with high growth.
Investment Insight: Suitable as a high-flexibility allocation for AI security implementation, requiring tracking of net new ARR and renewal rates.

4. Tesla (TSLA) - Rises Nearly 3% Following Tech Rebound

Event Overview: Tesla rose approximately 2.4%, closing at $354.25, outperforming some consumer tech leaders. The market is also paying attention to Trump's executive order limiting the entry of certain foreign power equipment into the U.S. grid, with analysts suggesting that domestic energy storage and grid-related capabilities may indirectly benefit.
Market Interpretation: Institutions view this rise more as a repair of risk appetite and a return of tech beta, rather than a standalone inflection point in fundamentals. Energy and grid policies provide incremental narrative, but delivery, gross margins, and the commercialization of autonomous driving remain core pricing factors in the medium term.
Investment Insight: Short-term fluctuations follow tech sentiment, while medium-term outlook still focuses on energy business contributions and execution.

5. Apple (AAPL) - Relatively Steady Ahead of Upcoming Launch Event

Event Overview: Apple rose slightly. The company has confirmed that it will hold its fall launch event at midnight on September 10, Beijing time, with the market continuing to price in the first foldable iPhone and the iPhone 18 Pro series.
Market Interpretation: In an environment where Nvidia and software stocks surged, Apple's gains lagged, reflecting that funds are chasing higher elasticity themes. Institutions still view it as a more stable allocation within the tech sector, focusing on new product pricing and replacement cycles.
Investment Insight: Suitable as a stable base in tech exposure, with a focus on tracking launch event pricing and initial sales data.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Bitcoin returns to $80,000, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $2.8 billion into spot ETFs over the past eight trading days, with IBIT contributing a major share.

2. Bernstein continues to position Bitcoin as a core target for "currency devaluation trades," maintaining a $300,000 target by the end of 2029.

3. Glassnode points out that August 19 saw the largest single-day short liquidation on record, with the $82,000-$86,000 range remaining a key resistance and liquidation zone.

4. Reports have emerged that Nvidia is negotiating to acquire the open-source model platform Hugging Face for approximately $12.9 billion, reinforcing its narrative of extending into the model ecosystem.

5. Strive CEO Matt Cole stated in an interview: "The next year will be somewhat tough. But in the following 4-5 years, I believe Bitcoin can easily break $500,000. The prices of gold and silver will also rise significantly. But as an investor, one key point is: the dollar is continuously depreciating. By then, the same dollar will buy much less than it does now. So we cannot use the current dollar value to measure the future. If you are an investor or want to protect family wealth, you must preserve your hard-earned wealth well and prepare for the future. I believe the prices of such scarce assets will rise very high. Moreover, in the next 4-5 years, the speed of dollar depreciation may far exceed that of the past 15 years."

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

| Time | Country/Region | Data Name | Market Attention | |-------|----------------|---------------------------------------------|------------------| | 22:00 | United States | Walsh's Jackson Hole Keynote Speech | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Evening | United States | Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Value | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

• Walsh's Speech: August 28 at 22:00 (UTC+8), focusing on his statements regarding the 2% inflation target, communication framework, and fiscal/debt issues, rather than whether he directly names the September rate hike.
• Non-Farm Employment Benchmark Revision Preliminary Value: To examine the extent of employment data revisions.
• Nvidia Market Digestion: To observe the breadth of the surge afterward, rather than just looking at the weighted stocks themselves.

Institutional Views:

Investment bank analysts believe that Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings and long-term guidance significantly repaired the AI demand narrative, while the gains of Salesforce and CrowdStrike indicate that the pricing of "software growth slowdown" was too rapid. Walsh's Jackson Hole debut remains a macro focal point, with the market more concerned about whether he can provide an anti-inflation roadmap rather than a one-time hawkish or dovish label. Geopolitically, the U.S. refusal to return to the June understanding with Iran has provided support for oil prices, and inflation stickiness concerns are unlikely to dissipate quickly. The crypto market has risen above $80,000 after continuous inflows into ETFs and short squeezes, but the $82,000-$86,000 range remains a critical test. Overall strategy recommendation: Use tonight's speech as a volatility catalyst, maintain flexibility on high-valuation growth stocks, and continue to track structural main lines such as storage, optical communication, software monetization, and power constraints.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.