BIT Research: Bitcoin returns to a bull market, will $82,000 be the breakthrough point for the next round of increases?

In the past week, the cryptocurrency market has shown a significant recovery, with the total market capitalization rising from $2.21 trillion to $2.64 trillion, and daily trading volume climbing from $40 billion to $162 billion at one point. For a more momentum-driven crypto market, an increase in trading activity often reinforces market sentiment and further drives prices up.

However, daily trading volume has now fallen back to about $109 billion, and whether it can stabilize above $100 billion remains a key factor in assessing market momentum. If it falls below this level, a short-term correction may occur; but from a broader market structure perspective, Bitcoin has already escaped the bear market structure and entered a new bull market cycle, and overbought signals do not necessarily mean that the upward trend has ended.

Return of $100 Billion Trading Volume, but New Funds Have Yet to Follow Significantly

The market capitalization of stablecoins remains an important indicator for observing fiat capital inflows into the digital asset market. Currently, the overall change is limited, with only the USDC issued by Circle recording a slight increase in market capitalization. In contrast, during the period from August 2024 to October 2025, the market capitalization of USDT increased from $120 billion to $196 billion, while USDC rose from $35 billion to $75 billion. Since October 2025, similar capital inflows have not reappeared, so whether the market capitalization of stablecoins can expand again remains a key indicator for judging whether this round of increase is driven by new funds or short-term leveraged speculation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market capitalization share has basically remained at 58%–60% over the past few months, with a slight increase in August. Although some altcoins have seen significant increases, the conditions necessary to drive a broad "altseason," such as retail capital, continuously expanding trading volume, and fiat capital consistently flowing into the stablecoin market, have not yet formed. Therefore, compared to high Beta digital assets, continuing to use Bitcoin as a core allocation still offers better risk-adjusted return characteristics.

Options Market Signals Bullish Sentiment, $82,000 Becomes the Next Key Level

Recently, the skew of Bitcoin options has shifted from a previously deep negative value to a positive value, reflecting an increased demand for call options. This change in the options pricing structure is the first similar signal since October 2025. Meanwhile, the implied volatility of September-expiring options once rose from 33.8% to 41.1%, then fell back to 38.5%, with some traders beginning to roll over call options to October and December, or managing short-term correction risks through covered call strategies.

In terms of price, Bitcoin currently faces a short-term technical resistance range of $78,214–$82,139. Although it has entered the overbought zone after this round of increase, the overbought state in a momentum-driven market may persist for a long time, and there is also a risk of missing out while waiting for a deep correction. As long as Bitcoin remains above $70,973, the main upward trend is expected to continue; if it subsequently breaks through and stabilizes above $82,000, market risk appetite may further increase.

Overall, the Bitcoin market structure has shifted from a bear market to a new bull market, but whether this round of increase can continue still requires further confirmation from trading volume and capital flow. It is not surprising to see consolidation near the resistance range of $78,214–$82,139 in the short term, while $70,973 remains an important support level to maintain a bullish outlook. As September approaches, with institutional funds and asset management firms deploying capital at the new moon, the market is expected to welcome new buying momentum. Moving forward, whether daily trading volume can maintain above $100 billion, whether the market capitalization of stablecoins can expand again, and whether Bitcoin can break through $82,139 will be key to judging the next phase of the trend.

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Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.