Huobi Expert Lecture Series Episode 7: From Washington to Oil Prices, Interpreting the New Pricing Logic of Crypto

On September 23, the seventh session of the Huobi Expert Forum "Regulation, Oil Prices, and Ballots: A New Cycle for Crypto" was launched. HTX Research asset analyst WZ presented on the topic "From Washington to Oil Prices: The New Pricing Logic of Crypto," analyzing key variables affecting crypto asset prices in relation to U.S. crypto regulation, geopolitical issues, energy prices, macro liquidity, and capital rotation. He also discussed market concerns regarding safe-haven attributes, news trading, and altcoin trends.

WZ believes that as crypto assets further integrate into the mainstream financial system, internal industry indicators such as halving, on-chain data, leverage, and funding rates remain important. However, understanding market trends also requires incorporating regulatory rules, crude oil, U.S. Treasury bonds, and the U.S. dollar into the same observational framework. The timing of regulatory clarity, changes in liquidity, and the channels through which capital enters are all influencing the pricing of the crypto market.

Regulatory progress affects market expectations, and the timing of rule implementation is equally important

Regarding U.S. crypto regulation, WZ cited the CLARITY Act as an example, pointing out that a systematic regulatory framework relates to the classification of digital assets, regulatory responsibilities, compliance requirements for trading platforms, and conditions for institutional participation. For the market, both the content of the rules and their implementation timeline will affect expectations for project operations and capital allocation.

On September 15, the CLARITY Act did not advance in the procedural vote in the U.S. Senate. WZ analyzed that the legislative process is influenced by bipartisan negotiations, interest distribution, and election schedules. As the legislative window narrows, the market needs to reassess the timing of regulatory certainty and the pace of institutional participation and business expansion.

Meanwhile, specific regulatory arrangements for businesses are still progressing. On September 17, the SEC released an "innovation exemption" for tokenized NMS stock trading, providing certain regulatory exemptions for qualifying trading venues and related liquidity providers. WZ believes that such progress indicates that observing U.S. crypto regulation requires tracking both congressional legislation and specific actions by regulatory agencies, rather than judging the entire industry's policy direction based solely on the progress of a single bill.

Oil prices transmit through inflation and interest rate expectations to crypto asset pricing

"How does a barrel of oil become the price of BTC?" In addressing this question, WZ broke down the pathways through which geopolitical factors influence the crypto market: regional conflicts and shipping risks alter crude oil supply expectations, driving changes in risk premiums, which then affect the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury bonds, and global capital risk appetite through energy costs, inflation expectations, and monetary policy expectations.

In his view, oil prices reflect the market's judgment on future supply stability. Even if actual production has not changed significantly, the risk of key shipping routes being blocked may already be priced in. When energy prices continue to rise, inflation pressures and interest rate expectations change, the funding environment for high-volatility assets may come under pressure. Conversely, easing geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices may create conditions for a recovery in risk appetite.

WZ also pointed out that Bitcoin's around-the-clock trading feature allows it to reflect macro news ahead of traditional markets' closing times. When capital enters early and prices break through key levels, factors such as short covering can amplify price increases. Therefore, analyzing short-term trends requires distinguishing between directional changes driven by macro expectations and volatility acceleration caused by leverage liquidation.

Whether Bitcoin's rise can spread depends on the sources and flows of capital

Regarding the familiar market pattern of "BTC rising first, followed by altcoins," WZ believes this experience needs to be re-evaluated in light of the current capital structure. An increase in Bitcoin's price does not necessarily mean that other crypto assets will benefit simultaneously, and past sector rotations should not be directly interpreted as guarantees of a new round of widespread increases.

In this context, the capital flowing through ETF channels has different circulation paths compared to internal crypto market funds. Funds allocated to Bitcoin through ETFs may not necessarily shift to other crypto assets upon exit; the increase in stablecoin supply and on-exchange capital reallocation may provide new buying power for different sectors. Therefore, determining whether trends can spread requires continued tracking of where capital enters, whether it remains in the crypto market, and whether actual sector rotations occur.

At the same time, new technologies, applications, and narratives may also bring localized trends. WZ reminded market participants to observe overall liquidity while also discerning the reasons specific assets gain attention, avoiding the trap of inferring all asset performance based solely on cyclical experiences.

From chasing news to understanding transmission, establishing a sustainable and verifiable research framework

In the interactive session, addressing the question of why Bitcoin sometimes rises with gold and sometimes falls with U.S. stocks, WZ suggested that one should first determine whether the market is facing a demand for safety or pressures related to cash and liquidity. In different contexts, Bitcoin's trading attributes may change, and it cannot be explained solely with a fixed "safe-haven asset" label.

Regarding the common confusion of "by the time I see the news, the price has already risen," he believes the key lies in assessing whether the information has been fully digested by the market and whether there are subsequent developments that could change expectations. The intensity of news and sustained price movements do not always align; understanding the pricing stage of the news can help reduce trading driven by emotional following.

Looking ahead, WZ proposed sustainably observing four sets of variables: regulatory progress, geopolitical situations and oil prices, the macro environment reflected by the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, and the flow of funds and leverage structure within the crypto market. Comparing these variables can help determine the driving factors of market trends and their continuation conditions.

The Huobi Expert Forum is a long-term educational program created by Huobi Growth Academy, inviting scholars, industry researchers, and frontline practitioners to share insights on the crypto industry, artificial intelligence, Web3, and cutting-edge technologies. This session combined macro research with user Q&A to help users understand the process of policy changes transmitting to asset prices. In the future, the forum will continue to engage in discussions around market hotspots and industry developments, providing support for users to establish an independent and systematic research framework.