Today's Hotspot Focus

International Commodities

Crude oil prices strengthen again, supply risks elevate market risk aversion

• Negotiations between the United States and Iran have not yet made a breakthrough, prompting the market to reassess supply risks related to the Strait of Hormuz.

• Brent crude oil has rebounded to around $106 per barrel, while WTI crude oil has risen above $94.

• The rebound in energy prices, combined with rising U.S. Treasury yields, has suppressed risk assets, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rising above 5.2%.

Market Impact: High oil prices benefit energy companies' profits but increase cost pressures in transportation, manufacturing, and consumer sectors. If energy prices remain high, inflation expectations and long-term interest rates may stay strong, thereby limiting the valuation recovery space for technology stocks and crypto assets.

Technology and AI

NVIDIA expands stock buyback program and launches AI agent safety platform

• NVIDIA's board has authorized an additional $150 billion for stock buybacks, bringing the total remaining buyback authorization to approximately $235 billion.

• The company also released the NVIDIA Open Agent Safety Platform, enhancing permission management, security monitoring, and anomaly isolation for AI agents through components like OpenShell and Sentry.

• NVIDIA closed up 1.66% on September 28, becoming the only company among the seven major tech stocks to rise.

Market Impact: The massive buyback signals management's confidence in cash flow and AI demand, but whether buybacks can support valuations in the long term still depends on data center revenue, AI inference demand, and sustained free cash flow growth. The AI hardware sector continues to differentiate, with funds concentrating more on leading companies with higher fundamental certainty.

Macroeconomic Data

Consumer confidence and housing data will test the impact of high interest rates

• The U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July will be released at 21:00 Beijing time tonight.

• The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September will be released at 22:00 Beijing time.

• The market will then focus on the U.S. August PCE inflation and personal income and spending data to be released on September 30.

Market Impact: If consumer confidence or the housing market shows significant cooling, it may reinforce expectations of economic growth slowing; however, if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve's policy space will still be limited. The tug-of-war between interest rates and growth expectations remains a major pricing factor in the recent stock and crypto markets.

# Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,122.42 per ounce, down about 3.79% for the day.

• Spot Silver: Approximately $61.00 per ounce, with a daily decline of over 4%.

• WTI Crude Oil Futures: Approximately $94.50 per barrel, November 2026 contract.

• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $106.10 per barrel.

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 101.21.

Driving Analysis: Oil prices have rebounded due to a repricing of supply risks; the high levels of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields exert pressure on gold and silver. Precious metals have seen concentrated profit-taking in the short term, indicating that safe-haven trading in a high-interest-rate environment remains quite volatile.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately 83,548 USDT, down about 1.19% in 24 hours.

• ETH: Approximately 2,681.87 USDT, down about 0.17% in 24 hours.

• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.85 trillion.

Main Fund and Volume-Price Observation: Weekly data disclosed on September 28 shows that Strategy increased its holdings by 1,665 BTC within a week, investing approximately $143 million at an average purchase price of about $85,681, raising its total holdings to 847,666 BTC. The current BTC price is temporarily below the average purchase price of this batch, indicating that institutional accumulation has not immediately translated into price support.

BitMine increased its holdings by 17,362 ETH during the same period, with total holdings exceeding 6 million, accounting for about 4.9% of ETH's circulating supply. During the decline in BTC and ETH prices, the 24-hour trading volume significantly increased, indicating heightened short-term selling and turnover. Overall, listed companies are still accumulating on dips, but macro pressures have temporarily overshadowed institutional buying support for spot prices.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 51,481.51 points, down 0.67%.

• S&P 500 Index: Closed at 7,683.69 points, down 0.77%.

• NASDAQ Composite Index: Closed at 26,820.38 points, down 0.92%.

Dynamics of the Seven Major Tech Stocks

• NVDA: Approximately $228.86, up 1.66%.

• AAPL: Approximately $338.40, down 0.76%.

• MSFT: Approximately $509.22, down 1.33%.

• GOOGL: Approximately $342.75, down 0.33%.

• AMZN: Approximately $246.15, down 1.35%.

• META: Approximately $715.62, down 4.81%.

• TSLA: Approximately $357.45, down 3.97%.

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: Among the seven major tech stocks, one rose while six fell. NVIDIA rose against the trend supported by its massive buyback plan, while Meta and Tesla saw significant declines. Rising oil prices and long-term interest rates have prompted the market to reduce exposure to overvalued assets, with tech stocks that have seen significant gains recently facing more pronounced profit-taking pressure.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy Sector: Oil Price Recovery Provides Relative Support

• Concerns over oil supply have resurfaced, causing oil and gas production and service companies to be relatively resilient.

• Future focus will be on the pace of supply recovery and the suppressive effect of high oil prices on end-user demand.

AI and Semiconductors: Leaders and Secondary Targets Continue to Differentiate

• NVIDIA rose on news of buybacks and the AI safety platform.

• Semiconductor companies like AMD and Micron faced pressure, with some stocks declining by about 3% or more.

• The market is shifting from a general bet on AI expansion to examining orders, profit margins, free cash flow, and capital return capabilities.

# Key Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. NVIDIA (NVDA) ------ Massive Buyback Releases Confidence, AI Cash Flow Remains Core

Event Overview: NVIDIA rose 1.66% on September 28, closing at approximately $228.86. The company has authorized an additional $150 billion for stock buybacks, increasing the remaining buyback amount to about $235 billion, and launched a safety and governance platform for AI agents.

Market Interpretation: The buyback plan indicates that management believes future cash flow is sufficient to support R&D, ecosystem investments, and shareholder returns simultaneously. The AI safety platform further expands NVIDIA's layout in software and enterprise-level infrastructure beyond chips.

Investment Insight: Focus on data center revenue, demand for Blackwell's subsequent products, free cash flow, and actual buyback progress. Buybacks can buffer short-term volatility, but long-term valuations still require earnings growth to materialize.

2. Meta (META) ------ Significant Correction Reflects High-Level Profit Taking

Event Overview: Meta fell 4.81%, closing at approximately $715.62, making it one of the weakest performers among the seven major tech stocks.

Market Interpretation: Meta had recently seen a significant rise driven by expectations of AI agents and application commercialization; this correction likely reflects a decline in risk appetite and profit-taking at high levels, rather than a single fundamental event. The market is still waiting for data on user retention, paid conversion, and AI operating costs.

Investment Insight: In the short term, focus on whether the stock price can find support in the previous breakout area; in the medium term, observe whether AI products can generate quantifiable new revenue while controlling inference and infrastructure costs.

3. Micron (MU) ------ Caution in Funding Ahead of Earnings Report

Event Overview: Micron's stock price fell about 3% on September 28, with the company planning to release its earnings report after the U.S. market closes on September 30.

Market Interpretation: Prices for memory chips and HBM demand remain core logic, but ahead of the earnings report, investors are beginning to reassess whether high expectations can translate into actual revenue, gross margins, and capacity delivery.

Investment Insight: Focus on HBM orders, DRAM prices, capital expenditures, and next quarter's guidance. If performance only meets expectations without further upward revisions, the stock price may continue to face valuation digestion pressure.

# Market and Project Dynamics

1. Strategy Continues to Increase BTC Holdings: The company disclosed that it bought 1,665 BTC within a week at an average price of approximately $85,681, raising its total holdings to 847,666 BTC. The continued accumulation reflects that the company's treasury strategy remains unchanged, but short-term unrealized losses may amplify market concerns about financing and leverage costs.

2. BitMine Expands ETH Reserves: The company increased its holdings by 17,362 ETH within a week, with total holdings exceeding 6 million, of which approximately 5.067 million have been staked. The buying scale was lower than the previous week, but the long-term accumulation direction remains unchanged.

3. Europe Discusses Adjusting Stablecoin Reserve Rules: The European Central Bank and some EU central banks have suggested adjusting the bank deposit ratio requirements for stablecoin issuers under the MiCA framework and allowing more short-term, high-liquidity assets into the reserve mix. Relevant suggestions still need to complete policy negotiations.

4. Stablecoin Payment Applications Continue to Expand: SoFi recently announced the use of SoFiUSD for Mastercard payment settlements, indicating that bank-issued stablecoins are gradually entering traditional card clearing scenarios.

# Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

All times are in Beijing time (UTC+8), and the level of attention is based on the editor's judgment.
Time
Country/Region
Event
Market Attention Level

|------------|----|---------------------------------------|-------| | September 29, 21:00 | United States | July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index | ⭐⭐⭐ | | September 29, 22:00 | United States | September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | September 30, 20:30 | United States | August PCE Inflation, Personal Income, and Personal Spending | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Key Event Outlook

• Micron Earnings Report: Expected to be released after the U.S. market closes on September 30, corresponding to the early morning of October 1 Beijing time. Focus on HBM revenue, storage prices, and margin guidance.

• U.S. PCE Inflation: To be released at 20:30 Beijing time on September 30. Core PCE performance will influence the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's subsequent interest rate path.

• U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: Expected to be released at 20:30 Beijing time on October 2. Wage growth and unemployment rate will be key indicators for assessing the resilience of the labor market.

Institutional Views

According to media reports, eMarketer analyst Jacob Bourne believes that NVIDIA's expansion of its buyback program reflects management's confidence in the sustainability of AI demand, but investments in AI infrastructure are unlikely to maintain the current growth rate indefinitely. Charles Schwab strategist Nathan Peterson pointed out that if U.S. Treasury yields can decline and stabilize, the stock market may gain some room for recovery. The core contradiction in the current market remains whether corporate profit growth can offset the pressures of rising energy prices and long-term financing costs.

Disclaimer: This article is for market information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Market prices will change with market conditions; please refer to real-time quotes at the time of trading.