Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy: U.S. inflation heats up again, market re-trades "higher for longer"

Surrounding the unexpected rebound of the U.S. September CPI, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy pointed out that inflation is spreading from energy to core prices. The U.S. September CPI rose year-on-year to 3.7%, and the core CPI rose year-on-year to 2.6%. Gasoline prices increased by 9.1% in a single month, contributing to more than half of the overall increase, but prices for housing, healthcare, and airline services also rose, indicating that this rebound cannot be fully explained by energy shocks.

The data reinforces the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" policy logic. The economy has not yet shown significant signs of recession, and the Federal Reserve lacks urgent reasons to shift to easing, needing to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored. After the CPI announcement, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar quickly rose, with the market raising expectations for subsequent interest rate hikes, leading to increased uncertainty in the interest rate path.

For the cryptocurrency market, this change is slightly bearish in the short term. The market first trades on real interest rates, the dollar, and global liquidity; high inflation does not automatically favor Bitcoin. After the CPI announcement, Bitcoin weakened and fell below $82,000. In the medium term, it is necessary to distinguish between "energy-driven inflation" and "demand-driven inflation": if energy prices decline and core inflation no longer accelerates, the September data is more likely to be a temporary supply shock; if core service inflation continues to rise, then the high interest rate level may be maintained longer than expected. The direction of Bitcoin depends on whether inflation, employment, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields can jointly confirm a new policy path.