Bitget UEX Daily Report | AI return concerns heavily hit tech stocks; OPEC+ maintains production; Bitcoin weakly recovers (November 2, 2026)

I. Selected Hot News

Technology and Risk Appetite | AI Spending Pressure Intensifies, Nasdaq Drops 2.86%

On October 30, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.86%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped 1.82%, with all seven tech giants closing lower. On the first trading day after Intel's earnings report, it plummeted 28.58%; Amazon fell 1.41% during the same period, contrasting its AWS growth with free cash flow pressure.

From the divergence in earnings reports and stock prices, the market is raising its expectations for AI investment returns and cash flow. Next, we need to observe whether tech stocks can stop their decline and whether subsequent earnings reports can prove that new revenue is sufficient to cover expansion costs; revenue growth alone may not be enough to support valuations.

Energy Policy | OPEC+ Seven Countries Maintain December Production Targets

On November 1, seven OPEC+ member countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to maintain the September production targets for December and will meet again on November 29. This decision pertains to production targets and does not imply that actual supply or export volumes will remain unchanged.

The policy remains temporarily unchanged, but oil prices still need to be assessed in conjunction with actual supply, transportation, and demand changes. For the market, the cash flow support of energy companies coexists with cost pressures from other industries, and one cannot infer oil price direction solely based on production targets.

U.S. Economy | Third Quarter Employment Costs Rose 0.8% Month-on-Month, Focus on Manufacturing Tonight

On October 30, the U.S. reported that third-quarter employment costs for civilian workers rose 0.8% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year; wages increased by 0.7% month-on-month, and benefit costs rose by 0.9%. The October ISM Manufacturing PMI and September construction spending will be released today at 23:00 Beijing time.

Labor costs continue to rise, and tonight we need to observe whether manufacturing demand and input prices show new divergence. If orders are weak while price pressures persist, corporate profit margins and policy easing space may be constrained simultaneously.

II. Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

| Variety | Reference Price | Data Source | | ------- | --------------- | ----------- | | Gold | $3,909.80/oz | COMEX December 2026 futures, around 08:53 on November 2 | | Silver | $49.885/oz | COMEX December 2026 futures, around 08:53 on November 2 | | WTI Crude Oil | $102.27/barrel | NYMEX December 2026 futures, around 08:53 on November 2 | | Brent Crude Oil | $111.63/barrel | January 2027 futures, around 08:53 on November 2 | | U.S. Dollar Index | 101.956 | Around 08:53 on November 2 | | U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.929% | Reference at the end of trading on October 30 |

Gold remains below $4,000, oil prices stay high, and the dollar index is around 102. The impact of commodities on inflation coexists with adjustments in tech stock valuations; Brent has switched to January contracts, and the price difference with the previous December contracts should not be directly viewed as the day's decline.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately 78,182.50 USDT, up 0.63% in 24 hours.
• ETH: Approximately 2,274.63 USDT, up 0.53% in 24 hours.
• Total cryptocurrency market capitalization: Approximately $2.61 trillion, down 3.25% in 24 hours; this update time is 09:02 Beijing time.

BTC | Liquidation Zone Observation

The upper significant potential liquidation zone for shorts is around $78,500---$79,000, about 0.49%---1.13% away from the current price; the lower potential liquidation zone for longs is around $76,950---$77,600, about 0.66%---1.49% away. The upper end is slightly closer; if the rebound continues, attention should be paid to the volatility brought by short hedging and leverage adjustments near this zone.

ETH | Liquidation Zone Observation

The upper significant potential liquidation zone for shorts is around $2,285---$2,300, about 0.54%---1.20% away; the lower potential liquidation zone for longs is around $2,240---$2,255, about 0.78%---1.44% away. Currently, it is closer to the upper zone; if the rebound is hindered, observe the support near the lower end.

Institutional Holding Cost | BTC

Glassnode reported on October 28 that the estimated comprehensive cost of the U.S. spot BTC ETF is about $81,500, with the current coin price below this reference by about 4.15%; Strategy disclosed on October 29 that as of October 25, it held 848,517 BTC at an average cost of about $75,446, with the current coin price exceeding this by about 3.54%. The above differences only reflect the unleveraged changes in coin price relative to holding costs and do not represent the overall returns of ETF investors or companies.

Market Summary in One Sentence

BTC first looks at the upper liquidation zone near $78,500, and ETH first looks at the upper liquidation zone near $2,285; if it falls back, then pay attention to $77,600 and $2,255, respectively. The difference between Strategy's cost and the lower liquidation zone of BTC is about 1.99%, forming an adjacent observation band, but this cannot be taken as definitive support; the ETF comprehensive cost remains at a higher level.

Major U.S. Stock Index Performance

| Index | Closing Level | Daily Change | | ----- | ------------- | ------------ | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,770.31 | -1.09% | | S&P 500 Index | 7,580.07 | -1.82% | | Nasdaq Composite Index | 25,437.00 | -2.86% |

All three major indices fell, with the Nasdaq experiencing the largest decline. The pressure on tech weights caused the indices to perform weakly, while energy stocks rose against the trend, indicating a divergence in profitability and valuation logic across different sectors.

Performance of the Seven Tech Giants

| Company | Closing Price (USD) | Daily Change | | ------- | ------------------- | ------------ | | Nvidia NVDA | 204.64 | -4.22% | | Apple AAPL | 344.63 | -1.23% | | Microsoft MSFT | 521.91 | -1.55% | | Alphabet GOOGL | 279.84 | -1.40% | | Amazon AMZN | 240.35 | -1.41% | | Meta META | 614.99 | -1.53% | | Tesla TSLA | 399.81 | -0.87% |

All seven giants fell, with Nvidia experiencing the largest drop. The market adjustment has covered major tech weights, and future observations should focus on whether profit guidance and cash flow can bring differentiation, rather than pricing all AI-related companies under the same logic.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductors: Intel fell 28.58%, AMD fell 10.88%, Nvidia fell 4.22%. Intel's outlook on PC demand and profit margin guidance raises concerns about the sustainability of hardware growth.

Energy: ExxonMobil rose 2.16%, Chevron rose 1.75%. Earnings reports and cash return capabilities are the focus of sector observation, but they remain affected by crude oil prices and refining profit margins.

Cryptocurrency-related stocks: Coinbase fell 10.62%, Strategy fell 7.84%, Robinhood fell 7.21%. The declines in related stocks and the slight rebound in coin prices over 24 hours on Monday belong to different time periods and cannot be directly viewed as synchronous divergence.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Stocks

Intel (INTC) | Strong Growth, Next Quarter's Earnings Under Pressure

Event Overview: On October 29, Intel reported third-quarter revenue of $16.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.52; the fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $15 billion---$16 billion, with a non-GAAP earnings per share guidance of $0.25. On October 30, the stock price closed down 28.58%, at $65.76.

Market Interpretation: Data center growth coexists with PC demand pressure. The company expects weak PC industry conditions to last at least until the first half of next year, and investors need to assess whether expansion investments, product structure, and profit margins can match revenue growth.

Investment Insight: Focus on the release of data center supply, PC business demand, and fourth-quarter gross margin realization. Rapid growth in the current quarter does not mean that earnings pressure for the next quarter has been alleviated.

Amazon (AMZN) | AWS Accelerates, Cash Flow Remains a Valuation Test Point

Event Overview: On October 29, Amazon reported third-quarter revenue of approximately $201.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%; AWS revenue was $45.984 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%. The free cash flow for the past 12 months as of the end of the third quarter was a net outflow of $42.4 billion; on October 30, the stock price fell 1.41%, closing at $240.35.

Market Interpretation: AWS demand growth has already reflected in revenue, but infrastructure investments still put pressure on cash flow. The market needs to judge when high investments will convert into sustained cash returns, rather than just the growth rate of cloud business.

Investment Insight: Pay attention to AWS order conversion, capital expenditure rhythm, and free cash flow recovery. The $42.4 billion is based on the past 12 months and should not be misinterpreted as a single quarter cash outflow.

ExxonMobil (XOM) | Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns Support Relative Performance

Event Overview: On October 30, the company reported third-quarter GAAP earnings of approximately $15.4 billion, adjusted earnings per share of $4.23, operating cash flow of $25.7 billion, and free cash flow of $19.1 billion; on the same day, the stock price rose 2.16%, closing at $187.25.

Market Interpretation: Strong cash generation capabilities give energy stocks different profit support during tech valuation adjustments. The company also announced a $20 billion buyback plan for 2027, contingent on reasonable market conditions.

Investment Insight: Observe cash flow resilience, refining profit margins, and buyback realization when oil prices fall. Single-quarter profits in a high oil price environment cannot be directly extrapolated to long-term profit levels.

IV. Market and Project Dynamics

Tether Announces Third Quarter Reserve Verification. The report disclosed on October 30 shows that as of September 30, total reserve assets were approximately $191.5 billion, with excess reserves of approximately $7.95 billion, and direct and indirect holdings of U.S. short-term government bonds of approximately $132.4 billion. The composition of reserves and redemption liquidity remains a key focus for stablecoins, and the verification report should be distinguished from a complete financial audit.

Strategy's STRC Daily Dividend Arrangement Takes Effect. According to the company's announcement on October 29, STRC will adopt a daily dividend arrangement starting November 1; as of October 25, dollar assets were approximately $5.07 billion, which can cover about 3.4 years of dividend and interest obligations according to the company's standards. Continued observation of cash reserves, financing costs, and preferred stock prices is necessary, and the dividend arrangement should not be equated with new BTC buying.

Exchange Service Recovery Progress. Binance announced on November 1 that it will gradually restore withdrawals, ensuring user fund safety, with related losses borne by the platform; specific assets and networks will be based on the official open status.

V. Today's Market Calendar

| Beijing Time | Country/Region | Event | Market Attention Level | | ------------ | -------------- | ----- | ---------------------- | | November 2, 22:30 | U.S. | U.S. stock regular trading session opens, switched to winter time | ★★★ | | November 2, 23:00 | U.S. | October ISM Manufacturing PMI | ★★★★ | | November 2, 23:00 | U.S. | September Construction Spending | ★★★ |

Key Event Outlook: The manufacturing data will focus on new orders, employment, and price components. If demand recovery is accompanied by rising price pressures, the market will need to reassess growth versus interest rates; if demand weakens, the ability of technology companies to fulfill their expansion plans may be subjected to stricter scrutiny.

Institutional View: Oliver Pursche, Senior Vice President of Wealthspire Advisors, pointed out on October 30 that the market is concerned whether AI investments can generate positive returns and how long it will take to realize them. Therefore, looking at subsequent earnings reports, cash returns and execution capabilities are more worth tracking than merely expanding scale.

This article is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.