Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates; Cloud Vendor Earnings Reports Cause Divergence; AI Infrastructure Stocks Continue Strong Performance (October 29, 2026)

I. Selected Hot News

Federal Reserve | Maintains Interest Rates, Two Members Advocate for Rate Hike

The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4.00%. The statement noted that economic activity is expanding strongly and capital investment is robust, while emphasizing that inflation remains elevated; Cook and Hammack advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike.

Market Impact: This pause in rate hikes does not eliminate the possibility of further tightening, as policy judgments remain constrained by inflation. Tonight's GDP and PCE data will help the market reassess growth resilience and the subsequent interest rate path.

Tech Earnings Reports | Microsoft and Alphabet Diverge After Hours, Cash Flow Becomes Key

Microsoft and Alphabet announced their earnings after the market close on October 28, U.S. time. In early trading following the earnings release, Microsoft rose over 4%, while Alphabet fell over 7%, contrasting with the regular closing performance of both companies that day.

Market Impact: The growth in cloud business is not sufficient to explain the entire stock price reaction. When looking at the cash flow statement, the market needs to assess revenue realization, capital expenditures, and cash recovery simultaneously, as financial differences within the AI industry chain are becoming more important.

Energy | U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Decline, Demand for Refined Products Needs Separate Observation

EIA data shows that for the week ending October 23, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by about 1.9 million barrels, falling to 410.6 million barrels, which is about 4% lower than the five-year average for the same period. During the same period, gasoline inventories increased by about 3.9 million barrels.

Market Impact: The reduction in crude oil inventories supports supply and demand, but the increase in gasoline inventories means that a decline in crude oil inventories cannot be directly equated with a comprehensive strengthening of end demand. Future assessments of oil price sustainability need to consider refinery operations, product consumption, and supply disruptions.

II. Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

| Commodity | Reference Price | Data Source | |-----------|----------------|-------------| | Gold | $4,051.80/oz | December Futures, 08:42 Beijing Time | | Silver | $53.660/oz | December Futures, 08:41 Beijing Time | | WTI Crude | $102.10/barrel | December Futures, 08:42 Beijing Time | | Brent Crude| $110.83/barrel | December Futures, 08:42 Beijing Time | | U.S. Dollar Index | 102.254 | 08:43 Beijing Time | | U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield | 5.045% | U.S. time October 28 close |

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5%, continuing to impose a high discount rate constraint on growth stock valuations. Oil prices remain high, and energy costs are still an important variable for inflation and corporate profit margins; future observations of gold will need to consider changes in real interest rates and the U.S. dollar, with the above commodity quotes not serving as a basis for daily price fluctuations.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately 81,156.84 USDT, up 0.47% in 24 hours.
• ETH: Approximately 2,356.59 USDT, up 0.41% in 24 hours.
• Total cryptocurrency market cap: Approximately $2.74 trillion, down 2.31% in 24 hours; this update time is 08:45 Beijing Time.

BTC | Liquidation Zone Observation

The upper significant potential liquidation zone for shorts is approximately $81,800 - $82,500, about 0.89% - 1.75% away from the current price; the lower potential liquidation zone for longs is approximately $79,700 - $80,500, about 0.72% - 1.70% away. Currently closer to the lower zone, if the price continues to fall, attention should be paid to the volatility caused by the unwinding of long leverage.

ETH | Liquidation Zone Observation

The upper significant potential liquidation zone for shorts is approximately $2,380 - $2,410, about 1.09% - 2.36% away; the lower potential liquidation zone for longs is approximately $2,290 - $2,315, about 1.67% - 2.74% away. The upper end is closer, and if it continues to move towards that zone, attention should be paid to the pressure from short liquidations, but this alone should not be used to judge the direction of a breakout.

Institutional Holding Cost | BTC

Glassnode released an estimated comprehensive cost for the U.S. spot BTC ETF on October 28, approximately $81,500, with the current coin price about 0.51% below this reference. Strategy disclosed on October 26 that as of October 25, it held 848,517 BTC, with an average cost including fees of approximately $75,446, and the current coin price is about 7.47% higher than its cost; the above difference only indicates the unleveraged change in coin price relative to holding costs.

Market Summary in One Sentence

Key observations for BTC are the $81,500 ETF cost reference and the $81,800 - $82,500 upper liquidation zone, which are close in position. If the price recovers upwards, both cost recovery and the unwinding of short leverage can be observed; if it falls, the focus should first be on the lower liquidation zone near $80,500. For ETH, attention should be on the vicinity of $2,380, as the current liquidation directions for the two coins are different and should not be judged uniformly.

U.S. Major Index Performance

| Index | Closing Level | Change | |-------|---------------|--------| | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,475.10 | +0.19% | | S&P 500 | 7,743.98 | +0.28% | | Nasdaq Composite | 26,549.85 | +0.27% |

The three major indices rose slightly as the market digested the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. The index gains were limited, and the divergence in individual stock earnings and industry chain performance was more pronounced, so the index rise should not be interpreted as a comprehensive strengthening of large tech stocks.

Performance of the Seven Tech Giants

| Company | Closing Price (USD) | Change | |---------|---------------------|--------| | Nvidia NVDA | 215.38 | -1.17% | | Apple AAPL | 343.83 | -0.94% | | Microsoft MSFT | 531.01 | -0.06% | | Alphabet GOOGL | 324.89 | +1.34% | | Amazon AMZN | 254.60 | +0.59% | | Meta META | 612.49 | -1.24% | | Tesla TSLA | 404.22 | -0.80% |

Among the seven giants, there were 2 gains and 5 declines, with Alphabet and Amazon rising, while the others fell. Both Microsoft and Alphabet's earnings reports were released after the above closing, so the prices in the table do not reflect the complete market reaction post-earnings.

Sector Movement Observations

Data Center Infrastructure: Vertiv rose 16.48%, and Oracle rose 10.73%, both receiving attention for quarterly performance and investor day outlook. The market continues to test AI construction demand, but there are differences in cash flow realization paths between equipment suppliers and cloud platforms.

Storage Chips: Micron rose 5.86%, while SK Hynix's performance was under market scrutiny during the same period. Future observations should consider how storage demand, prices, and new supply collectively impact profits, avoiding direct extrapolation of single-quarter prosperity.

Cryptocurrency-Related Stocks: Coinbase rose 0.76%, Strategy rose 2.66%, and Robinhood fell 3.31%. The previously disclosed weakness in Robinhood's crypto business continues to attract attention, while Coinbase will announce its earnings after hours on the 29th, U.S. time.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Stocks

Microsoft | Strong Cloud Growth, Cash Recovery Supports AI Investment

Event Overview: Microsoft closed at $531.01, down 0.06%, and subsequently announced its Q1 FY2027 earnings. Revenue was $92.3 billion, up 19% year-on-year; Azure revenue grew 48%, and Microsoft Cloud revenue was $63.9 billion, up 30% year-on-year.

Market Interpretation: Operating cash flow for the quarter was $58 billion, with cash purchases of fixed assets at $39.367 billion, resulting in a positive net cash flow of $18.633 billion. This uses cash expenditure metrics and should not be mixed with capital expenditures that include financing leases; cloud growth and cash generation capabilities jointly provide investment support.

Investment Insight: Future attention should focus on whether Azure growth can continue, as well as changes in depreciation, profit margins, and cash recovery after new capacity investments. The timing difference between revenue recognition and equipment investment will affect how much cash AI growth ultimately retains.

Alphabet | Cloud Revenue Doubles, Quarterly Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

Event Overview: Alphabet closed at $324.89, up 1.34%, and announced its Q3 earnings after hours. Total revenue was approximately $127.6 billion, up 25% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was approximately $30.709 billion, up 103% year-on-year.

Market Interpretation: Operating cash flow for the quarter was $42.29 billion, with capital expenditures at $51.355 billion, resulting in negative free cash flow of $9.065 billion. Both cloud business growth and cash flow pressure exist simultaneously, and Cloud revenue includes TPU system sales, so not all incremental revenue can be considered recurring cloud service revenue.

Investment Insight: Key observations should focus on when capital expenditures will yield sustained cash returns, the structure of cloud business growth, and profit margins after expanded investments. Negative quarterly free cash flow does not mean that operating activities do not generate cash, but it will raise market expectations for investment returns.

Vertiv | Orders and Profits Grow in Sync, Full-Year Guidance Raised

Event Overview: Vertiv closed at $242.94, up 16.48%. Q3 net sales were $4.313 billion, up 61% year-on-year; organic orders grew over 100% year-on-year, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.21, up 78% year-on-year.

Market Interpretation: The company's adjusted operating profit margin reached 25.2%, and it raised the midpoint of its full-year net sales guidance to $14.65 billion. Improvements in orders, sales, and profit margins have enhanced visibility into the demand for power and cooling infrastructure.

Investment Insight: Future attention should focus on order conversion, capacity delivery, and working capital utilization to assess whether rapid growth can continue to translate into cash. After a significant rise in stock price, the actual delivery relative to guidance execution is more worth tracking.

IV. Market and Project Dynamics

Oracle | Provides Long-Term Revenue and Cash Flow Realization Timeline

On October 28, Oracle presented at its investor day, setting a revenue target of at least $225 billion for FY2030, expecting free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of FY2028, and targeting at least $30 billion in free cash flow for FY2029.

These are forward-looking goals from management, and future realization will require orders to convert to revenue, a decrease in capital expenditures, and financing arrangements to work together. For investors, the timeline and conditions for turning cash flow positive are as important as the revenue targets.

Ripple and Coinbase | RLUSD Expands to Retail and Institutional Platforms

The two parties announced a partnership on October 28, with RLUSD integrated into Coinbase Prime, Coinbase Exchange, and retail applications, supporting deposits and withdrawals on XRPL, Base, and Ethereum; support for Coinbase Global Exchange and collateral use will be launched subsequently.

This partnership expands the trading, custody, and settlement access for stablecoins, and the actual effectiveness still needs to be observed in terms of usage and liquidity. The launched platforms and future plans should be viewed separately.

Stellar Ecosystem | Pontoro Launches Private Placement Asset Liquidity Pool Pilot

Pontoro and Archax have launched the first automated liquidity pool pilot on the Stellar network, combining high liquidity currency market assets with private equity funds, and managing liquidity through rule-based pricing.

This pilot aims to improve the liquidity mechanism of private assets, but tokenization itself cannot guarantee redemption at any time. Future observations should focus on actual transactions, redemption arrangements, and investor suitability requirements.

V. Today's Market Calendar

All times are in Beijing time, and cross-day financial reports indicate the full date; attention level is assessed by the editor.

Beijing Time | Country/Region | Event | Market Attention Level

October 29, 20:30 | United States | Q3 GDP Preliminary Value | ★★★★★

October 29, 20:30 | United States | September Personal Income, Expenditure, and PCE Inflation Report | ★★★★★

October 29, 21:15 | Eurozone | European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | ★★★★★

October 29, 21:45 | Eurozone | European Central Bank Press Conference | ★★★★☆

October 30, early morning, after the U.S. market on the 29th | United States | Amazon, Coinbase Financial Reports | ★★★★★

October 30, 05:00 | United States | Amazon Earnings Call, Coinbase Q&A Session | ★★★★☆

Key Events Outlook: GDP and PCE will simultaneously test growth resilience and inflation pressure, potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy expectations. The financial reports from Amazon and Coinbase will provide supplementary observational evidence regarding cloud computing returns, cryptocurrency trading, and stablecoin business.

Institutional Viewpoint: Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, noted on October 28 that maintaining interest rates unchanged is basically in line with expectations, and the market is still focused on whether AI spending can be sustained. In conjunction with today's differentiated financial reports, it will be more worthwhile to compare the speed at which each company generates revenue and cash flow from their investments.

This article provides market information and research observations only and does not constitute investment advice.