-cycle

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on social media: "Bitcoin is currently in the mid-stage of this cycle. The NUPL--MVRV harmonic composite indicator is at 0.33, while the bottoms in previous cycles typically occur close to -0.5.This indicator also shows that the cycle lows are gradually moving up, indicating that the extreme panic selling in the market is diminishing. However, the indicator is still significantly above the historical bottom region, so the market has not yet confirmed a comprehensive capitulation sell-off."

As Bitcoin fell below the $86,000 mark on Monday morning, on-chain wallet behavior showed divergence: large holders slowed their accumulation pace, while small retail wallets accelerated their buying. Analysts warn that this pattern often signals increased market vulnerability in the later stages of the cycle.On-chain data indicates that long-term holders and whale wallets have significantly slowed their accumulation in recent weeks, while small wallets holding less than 1 BTC are speeding up their bottom-fishing. BRN research director Timothy Misir pointed out that this divergence occurs at a delicate moment in market structure: "Whales slow down their buying while retail investors accelerate their accumulation—this is a typical late-cycle pattern that exacerbates short-term vulnerability. This morning's washout is a liquidity and position adjustment event; the market has not yet signaled a trend reversal but is showing signs of pressure." Timothy Misir added that short-term holders have realized a surge in losses during this round of selling, suggesting a "reset in sentiment." Balances on trading platforms and inflows of stablecoins indicate that the market still possesses some purchasing power, but there is also potential selling pressure in liquidity.

ChainCatcher news, asset management company VanEck stated that the pullback in Bitcoin prices is a normal adjustment in the middle of the cycle, rather than the beginning of a new bear market. VanEck pointed out that the current market leverage levels have returned to normal, on-chain activity continues to rise, and liquidity is still driving this cycle forward.

ChainCatcher news, Placeholder partner Chris Burniske posted on X stating, "I don't think the cycle has peaked; it feels more like a mid-bull market pullback, with a decline large enough to make everyone question their lives."It's similar to the situation in April, May, and June of 2021, when various tokens saw declines between 50%-80%. Many people said the bull market was over, and those calling for a peak were quite pleased, but then the market experienced a surge in the second half of 2021.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Glassnode data shows that the current price trend of Bitcoin is highly similar to the mid-cycle of the 2015-2018 market cycle. The data indicates that Bitcoin has risen approximately 630% from its cycle low of $15,000 in 2022, which is close to the 562% increase during the same period of the 2015-2018 cycle.Bitget analysts speculate that if the increase of the 2015-2018 cycle is repeated, Bitcoin could theoretically reach $1.7 million. However, Bitget Wallet COO Alvin Kan emphasizes that the current market environment has fundamentally changed, with factors such as increased institutional adoption, clearer regulations, and advancements in blockchain technology all influencing Bitcoin's trajectory. RedStone Oracles COO Marcin Mazmierczak also pointed out that today's market environment is significantly different from the past, with ETFs, a mature DeFi ecosystem, and more developed market infrastructure being important distinctions.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on social media, "Bitcoin is in the mid-cycle of a bull market. Its market cap is growing faster than the realized market cap, a trend that typically lasts for about two years. If this pattern continues, the bull market cycle may end in April 2025."