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Garrett Jin: Bitcoin at $80,000 to $82,500 is a key resistance zone, and the short squeeze momentum is hard to sustain

"BTC OG insider whale" agent Garrett Jin analyzed that Bitcoin's recent breakthrough of $70,000 was driven by multiple positive factors, including the expansion of the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback, the SEC's proposed regulatory framework for crypto assets, and the White House crypto summit. The current price has entered a dense area of trapped positions between the latter half of $60,000 and the lower range of $80,000, with the first resistance level showing signs of loosening.Garrett Jin pointed out that over the past two months, a large amount of new holding costs has accumulated in the area just above $60,000, providing bottom support for this breakthrough. Although the short squeeze triggered by short liquidations may push Bitcoin above $80,000 in the short term, the $80,000 to $82,500 range is a key resistance area to watch, and the short squeeze momentum is difficult to sustain in the long term. If effective absorption of chips can occur below $80,000 before the breakthrough, it would be more beneficial for the healthy development of subsequent trends.On the same day, SK Hynix announced the largest stock buyback and cancellation plan in South Korea's history, committing to return at least 50% of the expected free cash flow before 2027 to shareholders. The stock price surged more than 10% at one point, triggering the buyer's circuit breaker mechanism for the KOSPI index. Analysts believe this move can alleviate market concerns about the declining risk appetite for South Korean semiconductor stocks, but it cannot change the cyclical trend of the memory industry itself.

first_img Bitcoin's volatility has narrowed to historic lows, and traders are turning to AI and prediction markets

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has recently shown unusually calm performance, achieving an annualized volatility of about 42% on the 30th, narrowing the gap with the S&P 500's 18% to the narrowest level on record. After narratives related to Trump and corporate treasury buying, the market has entered a prolonged compression range. Edmond Goh, Global Trading Head at B2C2, stated that retail funds are shifting towards AI stocks, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets; TradFi high-frequency trading and risk models are improving efficiency, with open interest nearing historical lows, further suppressing volatility.Shiliang Tang, Partner at Monarq Asset Management, mentioned that Bitcoin is in a price stalemate, with upward pressure from corporate treasury sell-offs (such as Strategy, MARA) and limited downward movement due to speculative leverage clearing and net accumulation in long-term wallets. Strategy has sold about 7,000 BTC by 2026. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that institutional ETFs and DAT are driving market maturity, while clarity in U.S. regulation (CLARITY Act) is still pending, and low volatility has led to a decrease in trading volume.Greg Cipolaro from NYDIG stated that short-term traders are chasing 5x or 10x returns, with target options expanding to Nvidia, gold, perpetual stock contracts, 0DTE options, or sports event contracts. Retail in South Korea is shifting from crypto to domestic AI-related stocks, with Upbit and Bithumb's trading volume significantly dropping year-on-year. Trading in traditional asset perpetuals on crypto platforms and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has seen a significant increase.
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