basis

The Bank of Korea raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, marking the first rate hike since January 2023. Among 37 economists surveyed by Reuters, 36 expected the Bank of Korea to raise rates to this level, and the result met market expectations.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale sold $78,560.11 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's July decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point interest rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 93.28%.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current Bitcoin price has been below the short-term holder cost basis (STH Cost Basis) for more than 9 consecutive months. Historically, this kind of prolonged loss phase for short-term holders is often highly correlated with bear market cycles.Currently, the short-term holder cost basis for Bitcoin is approximately $70,700, which continues to act as a resistance level. The market trend in May has reflected this pressure, as BTC quickly encountered a pullback after testing this area near approximately $82,000.

According to KPMG's latest survey report involving 2,145 executives from 20 countries, as technology companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and GitHub recently shifted some of their AI services from fixed subscription models to usage-based billing, businesses are facing challenges in cost forecasting and management during the scaling of AI deployment.The report indicates that 29% of corporate executives find it difficult to understand and control operational costs when scaling AI deployment, and one-third of executives believe that insufficient understanding of AI economics hinders the deployment of AI entities. Due to costs exceeding expected value, nearly half (about 49%) of corporate organizations have chosen to delay or readjust their AI deployment plans; meanwhile, low-cost, high-fidelity large models are accelerating their impact on corporate AI strategies.In addition, tech giants are increasing capital expenditures to build AI capacity. Amazon plans to spend about $200 billion on capital expenditures this year and is investing $1 billion in its AWS frontline engineering organization to assist customers in adopting AI entities; Microsoft's total capital expenditure is expected to reach $190 billion this year, with $2.5 billion allocated to the new entity Microsoft Frontier Company. KPMG emphasizes that, in addition to cost pressures, accountability in AI governance, employee engagement rules, and the prevention of system "hallucinations" remain core challenges faced by businesses today.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. 10-year Treasury futures fell by 3 points, and the federal funds rate futures indicate that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 38 basis points by December.

According to Jinshi reports, market pricing indicates that the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates twice before the end of the year, with each increase being 25 basis points.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $50,398.17 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's July decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding win rate for this asset is 83.3%.

According to Jinshi, Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2026, whereas the previous forecast was that interest rates would remain unchanged this year.

Pioneer of crypto punk Adam Back stated that the market's negative view on Strategy and its preferred stock STRC lacks basis, as what Strategy is essentially doing is selling Bitcoin to pay dividends, without changing its Bitcoin reserve strategy, and is precisely "proving that it is possible to pay returns to investors through Bitcoin while reducing debt ratios."Adam Back further pointed out that Strategy is demonstrating a new financial model to the market, where Bitcoin may become an alternative asset to cash for corporate asset management and capital operations in the future, while the FUD sentiment surrounding MSTR and STRC is exaggerated. Strategy will not "go to zero," and its long-term value lies in continuously holding Bitcoin and promoting the market's understanding of Bitcoin's monetary properties.

According to Jinshi reports, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike have increased, fully absorbing the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch stated that if service sector inflation rises, the European Central Bank may consider raising interest rates by another 25 basis points to ensure economic safety.

According to Jinshi reports, Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, December 2026, and January 2027, previously predicting rate cuts in September, October, and December of this year.

According to Jinshi reports, the pricing of interest rate futures indicates that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 30 basis points by the end of the year, an increase of about 9 basis points compared to before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

According to Jinshi reports, the market now fully expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year.

According to Jinshi, UBS expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March and June 2027, previously anticipated to cut by 25 basis points in December 2026 and March 2027.

According to Gate market data, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, and the EUR/USD exchange rate rose slightly, reported at 1.1537.

According to Jinshi reports, Dutch Bank stated that European Central Bank President Lagarde had previously hinted that June would be a "suitable time" to assess the impact of the Iran conflict and update economic forecasts. Dutch Bank expects the European Central Bank to raise its inflation forecasts and suggests a possible further tightening of policy, with a potential rate hike of 25 basis points in July. Despite the slowdown in growth in the Eurozone, policymakers' concerns about inflation still outweigh their concerns about economic activity.

PiggyBank released a detailed report on the LAB incident on June 6, stating that the protocol experienced a net withdrawal of approximately $579,000 on June 6, primarily due to a LAB token basis trade being manipulated by the market.In early May, PiggyBank purchased 142,800 locked LAB tokens (approximately $102,500) through an OTC intermediary while simultaneously opening a perpetual contract short hedge. However, market participants continuously maintained the spot price above the perpetual contract price, resulting in a deeply negative funding rate (annualized -17,000%), and the high hedging costs forced the shorts to close, resulting in a loss of approximately $476,000. The currently locked LAB tokens have a spot value of about $1 million, but due to poor liquidity and lack of hedging, they have been excluded from the NAV calculation.PiggyBank will undergo structural reforms: increasing transparency of on-chain mechanisms, strategy logic, and fund allocation will be publicly verifiable, while basis trading and funding rate arbitrage will be gradually phased out. In terms of compensation, affected users will receive USDC compensation based on actual losses, with funding sources including NAV discrepancies, future LAB sales (expected to unlock from August 14 to October 14, currently valued at approximately $1 million), and 50% of future platform revenue. All users recorded in the snapshot on June 6 are eligible for compensation.

The revenue agreement PiggyBank issued a statement acknowledging a serious error in the LAB token basis trading that took place last month. PiggyBank disclosed that the team previously purchased locked LAB tokens at a low price through OTC channels for about $100,000 (accounting for approximately 2% of the portfolio) and simultaneously shorted perpetual contracts for hedging.However, during the holding period, LAB encountered severe market manipulation, liquidity depletion, and deeply negative funding rates, leading to excessively high hedging costs. The team ultimately chose to close the short position to limit downside risk. Based on current prices, the total value of the locked LAB position is $1.35 million. However, due to the lack of liquidity in this position, PiggyBank will exclude it from the net asset value calculation until the first unlock on August 14.Although the situation is still changing and there is still potential for considerable returns, this is the "fairest and most transparent" way for users to manage liquidity. Therefore, today's net asset value will show a decline of approximately 15% in the USDC treasury, about 12% in SPYx, and about 9% in JitoSOL. A detailed report will be released next week, including follow-up processing plans. On-chain investigator ZachXBT previously publicly questioned PiggyBank, accusing it of insider control over more than 95% of the supply.

According to Jinshi reports, the OECD stated that if economic turmoil continues, central banks in various countries are expected to raise interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points.