basis

According to Jinshi reports, the OECD stated that if economic turmoil continues, central banks in various countries are expected to raise interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points.

According to Jinshi News, Rabobank still insists that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week. The bank expects the European Central Bank to significantly raise its own inflation forecasts, while economic growth may be weaker than its March forecast levels.

Driven by optimistic expectations for an extended ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. stock and oil markets continued to strengthen this week. The S&P 500 index rose for the ninth consecutive week, setting the longest winning streak since 2023; Brent crude oil stabilized around $92 per barrel. However, the cryptocurrency market failed to follow the rise of macro risk assets. Over the past week, Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $73,445, Ethereum dropped 2.5% to $2,011, Solana decreased by 2.2%, and TRX saw a decline of 5.6%, making it one of the weakest tokens among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Market analysts believe that the cooling inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs is putting pressure on coin prices.In contrast, some small and mid-cap tokens performed remarkably well. Among them, the native token of Hyperliquid, HYPE, surged 19.4% this week to around $65, becoming the biggest highlight in the market. Previously, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) CEO Jeffrey Sprecher referred to Hyperliquid as "a bigger opportunity than Nasdaq" at the Bernstein conference, further boosting market sentiment. Additionally, BNB rose 1.9% this week, XRP increased by 0.7%, and DOGE remained basically flat.On the macro level, U.S. President Trump stated that a final decision on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum is close, but he still insists on Iran abandoning its nuclear program, handing over its enriched uranium stockpile, and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants believe that due to significant differences between the two sides on key issues, the current rebound in risk assets remains relatively fragile, and any negative news regarding the Iran negotiations could trigger a reversal in market sentiment.

According to Jinshi, U.S. federal funds futures rose, with the December contract up 6 basis points.

According to Jinshi reports, market pricing shows that traders fully expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points by the end of 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, UBS Global Wealth Management expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2026 and March 2027, whereas the previous forecast was for rate cuts in September and December of this year.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of America Global Research expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July and September 2027, with previous predictions being rate cuts in September and October 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, Citic Securities' research report states that in April 2026, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate of 4.3% met expectations. The bank believes that the April data better reflects the current state of the U.S. job market compared to the previous two months, mainly due to a reduction in one-time factors and a higher corporate response rate. Regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, if the situation in Iran eases and falling oil prices lead to a cooling of inflation expectations, the baseline scenario for the second half of the year is a rate cut of 25 basis points once.

Bitwise announced the launch of its first tokenized crypto basis fund, Bitwise Crypto Carry Fund (USCC), which is also the first tokenized fund under Bitwise.Bitwise stated that all future funds will be tokenized, and this fund provides market-neutral returns through crypto basis trading, with underlying technical support continued by Superstate. The fund is currently open only to accredited investors.

According to BBX data, yesterday Wall Street institutions made a significant breakthrough in retail crypto layout, and today the dual verification point of the earnings season is approaching. The core dynamics are as follows:Morgan Stanley (NYSE: $MS) disclosed via Bloomberg on May 6 that its ETrade platform officially launched a pilot for crypto spot trading, with a fee structure of 50 basis points per transaction amount, lower than Coinbase (retail rates vary by tier and payment method, potentially exceeding 50 basis points), Robinhood (approximately 100 basis points, according to media estimates), and Charles Schwab (75 basis points); initially supporting three major assets: BTC, ETH, and SOL, with liquidity, custody, and settlement services provided by Zerohash; the pilot is currently aimed at a select group of users, with plans to open to all 8.6 million ETrade customers by the end of 2026. Head of Wealth Management Jed Finn characterized this move as "reverse disruption of disruptors," and Morgan Stanley is simultaneously advancing its application for a national trust bank license to achieve self-custody, with plans to launch Ethereum and Solana spot ETFs.Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: $COIN) will release its Q1 2026 earnings report after the market closes today (May 7), with the earnings call scheduled for 2:30 PM (PT); analyst consensus expects Q1 revenue of approximately $1.5 billion (a year-on-year decrease of about -26%), and EPS of about $0.23---$0.36 (a significant decline from $1.94 in the same period last year); the relative resilience of subscription and service revenue (including stablecoins, custody, and staking) will be the core metric of most interest today.Block, Inc. (NYSE: $XYZ) will release its Q1 2026 earnings report after the market closes today (May 7), with an earnings call at 2:00 PM (PT); analyst consensus expects revenue of approximately $6.04 billion to $6.11 billion (a year-on-year increase of +5.79%), and EPS of $0.68 (an increase of about 21% from approximately $0.56 in the same period last year); consensus for Bitcoin ecosystem revenue is expected to be about $2.11 billion (down from $2.30 billion in the same period last year); Evercore ISI maintains an "Outperform" rating with a target price of $96 (implying about 35% upside from the current stock price of $70.92), focusing on the recovery progress of the fundamentals of the two major business lines, Square and Cash App.

According to Jinshi reports, Standard Chartered Bank expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in June, whereas the previous forecast was for rates to remain unchanged.

On-chain data from Arkham shows that the Vitalik Buterin address (0xAb5...) is intensively selling various Meme tokens, with a transfer frequency reaching several times per minute. The fund flow indicates a continuous inflow of ETH during the same period.The market generally speculates that he is using automated scripts to batch liquidate the airdrop junk tokens in the wallet. The amount per transaction is generally in the range of tens to hundreds of dollars. This type of operation is not the first time. In 2021, Vitalik sold or donated a large number of Meme coins (including SHIB, etc.) that were airdropped to his address, causing significant market fluctuations. It is currently unclear whether this operation is manually triggered or entirely executed by automated programs. Given the market influence of the Vitalik address, holders of related Meme coins need to pay attention to potential selling pressure risks.

According to Jinshi reports, economists at UniCredit Bank stated in a report that the European Central Bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points in June and September.They pointed out that, assuming the economy does not encounter problems, the likelihood of future rate hikes is greater than that of no hikes. The European Central Bank will release its latest macroeconomic forecasts in June to more accurately assess the risks to price stability.

According to Jinshi reports, the interest rate swap market shows a dovish shift, with current pricing indicating that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 15 basis points in December.

According to Jin Shi's report, UBS's research indicates that the Federal Reserve is still on a path of further easing. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently downplayed the necessity of tightening monetary policy due to rising energy prices, emphasizing that policymakers typically "ignore" supply shocks such as soaring oil prices.UBS expects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points later this year and believes that U.S. Treasury yields have ample room to decline, with year-end targets of 3.25% for the 2-year Treasury yield and 3.75% for the 10-year Treasury yield.

According to a report by CryptoSlate, the White House Economic Advisory Council recently released a research report indicating that banning the yield on stablecoins has very limited protective effects on bank loans, yet it significantly reduces consumers' ability to earn returns through digital cash. This conclusion directly challenges the core argument of the banking industry supporting the yield ban and provides new policy backing for the advancement of the CLARITY Act.Currently, Treasury Secretary Bessent and SEC Chair Atkins have both publicly expressed support for the bill, indicating a convergence of positions between the executive branch and regulatory agencies. However, the Senate Banking Committee has yet to announce a timeline for the bill's review, and political maneuvering remains the biggest variable.Analysts point out that if the committee can complete its review before the summer recess, the probability of the bill passing will significantly increase; otherwise, it will face the dual risks of election pressure and legislative delays.

According to Jinshi News, a research report from CITIC Securities states that the overall inflation in the U.S. in March rose significantly due to soaring oil prices, while core inflation showed moderate performance. It is expected that the April CPI may continue to record a relatively high growth rate month-on-month due to compensatory increases in rental inflation. If the pace of oil price decline is slow, the U.S. CPI year-on-year may continue to exceed 3% for the remainder of the year. CITIC Securities still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points within the year, and the dollar may experience weak fluctuations in the near term.

According to Jinshi reports, the president of the World Bank stated that the war is expected to lead to an increase in inflation of up to 300 basis points, but if the conflict continues, inflation could be "much higher."

According to Jinshi reports, the market expects about a one-third probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this year, and bond traders have slightly reduced their bets on rate cuts. Data shows that due to the rise in gasoline prices caused by the Iran war and the acceleration of inflation in the U.S. in March, U.S. Treasury bonds fell slightly after the report was released, with yields on various maturities rising by two to three basis points. Tom di Galoma, Managing Director of Mischler Financial Group, stated that today's CPI data will not support bond prices, and next month's inflation report will bring more trouble to investors and the Federal Reserve.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market continues to weaken. Data shows that the average daily open interest (OI) in March 2026 has fallen below $8 billion, further dropping to about $7.2 billion in early April, marking a new low since February 2024, and it has declined for the fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the monthly trading volume in March fell to $163 billion, nearly halving from the peak of January 2025.Market analysis indicates that this round of decline is primarily due to large-scale liquidations of "basis trades." Previously, institutions profited from price differences by buying spot ETFs and shorting CME futures, which was the core driving force behind the growth of CME positions. However, as Bitcoin prices have retreated from a high of $120,000 to below $70,000, the annualized basis yield has significantly compressed. Currently, the basis yield of about 5% is close to the risk-free interest rate level of about 4.5%. When factoring in funding costs and counterparty risks, the arbitrage space has essentially disappeared, prompting leveraged funds to withdraw.