basis

CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr posted that the Bitcoin basis (7-day simple moving average) has fallen back to a neutral range, as the premium between spot and futures has significantly narrowed.He pointed out that this change indicates a weakening demand for establishing long exposure through derivatives, and the market is no longer pricing in an aggressive risk appetite scenario. Typically, this means a decline in risk appetite, the initiation of a deleveraging process, and investors shifting to a wait-and-see stance. Axel Adler Jr believes that the current derivatives market has failed to continue pushing prices upward, and for longs to regain momentum, they will need stronger spot buying support.

According to Jinshi reports, after the CPI data was released, the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 has risen to 61 basis points, up from the previous 58 basis points.

According to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that out of 101 economists surveyed, 60 believe that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.25%-3.5% before the end of June.

Matrixport's analysis indicates that the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has significantly slowed down, primarily due to the narrowing of market basis.The report points out that retail participation remains persistently low, with trading volume data from the South Korean crypto market showing no significant retail buying demand. Due to the lack of incremental buying support, the perpetual contract funding rate has remained low for an extended period, thereby compressing the profit space for basis trading (arbitrage between spot and futures), which limits the incremental inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs.Analysts believe this confirms the judgment made in March 2024: without retail-driven momentum to push the spot-futures price difference, the pace of institutional capital allocation is difficult to accelerate, leading to an extension of the current consolidation phase.

According to the official announcement, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy Inc. has released its financial data for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2025. As of February 1, 2026, it holds a total of 713,502 BTC, with a total cost of $54.26 billion, averaging about $76,052 per Bitcoin. The financing for the fiscal year 2025 amounts to $25.3 billion.The fourth quarter financial data shows that the company incurred a loss of $17.4 billion, with a net loss of $12.4 billion, primarily impacted by the decline in digital assets. As of December 31, 2025, the company holds $2.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Strategy has established a $2.25 billion dollar reserve, which can cover approximately 2.5 years of dividend and interest expenses.

Michael Saylor announced on the X platform that the February dividend yield of Strategy perpetual preferred stock STRC has been raised by 25 basis points to 11.25%. It is reported that STRC is positioned as a short-term high-yield credit product, distributed in cash on a monthly basis. The dividend yield is adjusted monthly, and Strategy can issue stock through an at-the-market (ATM) method linked to the market price of this product, or will be able to raise more funds to increase its Bitcoin holdings.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller issued a statement on the Fed's official website indicating that he voted against the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision, as he believes that a 25 basis point cut in the policy rate is the appropriate stance. The three rate cuts last year have brought the policy rate closer to neutral levels, but monetary policy is still restricting economic activity, and economic data clearly indicate the need for further easing of monetary policy.Waller stated that the total inflation rate, excluding the impact of tariffs, is close to the Fed's target value, slightly above 2%, and the labor market is weak, thus the policy rate should be closer to neutral levels (the median estimate of FOMC members is 3%)."I support lowering the policy rate to boost the labor market and prevent economic deterioration, as once deterioration begins, it will be harder to control."

According to Jin Ten, Investec analyst Ryan Djajasaputra pointed out that Powell's message indicates that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to adjust policies in the short term, and the current policy does not appear to be overly tight. Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy is performing strongly and hopes to see more progress in bringing inflation back to target levels.Analysts believe that the Federal Reserve may enter a pause in interest rate cuts, with the next expected cut of 25 basis points not anticipated until June.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 11.9% (down from 15.5% before the meeting), while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 88.1% (up from 84.2% before the meeting). The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.1% (down from 0.4% before the meeting). By April, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 24.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 73.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 2%.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve today decided to keep interest rates unchanged, citing that inflation remains at a high level and economic growth is robust. The policy statement provided little clue as to when interest rates might be cut again. The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement noted, "Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace."Board members Waller and Milan cast dissenting votes, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut. The statement did not signal when the next rate cut might occur, only indicating that the magnitude and timing of "further adjustments" will depend on subsequent data and economic outlook. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve stated that inflation "remains slightly elevated," while the labor market "has shown some signs of stabilization." Although the Federal Reserve pointed out that "job growth remains subdued," it removed previous language regarding rising risks to employment, indicating that policymakers' overall concerns about a rapid decline in the labor market have eased.

According to Jinshi, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo stated that if the U.S. lowers interest rates by 100 basis points, the economic growth rate is expected to reach 6% or even higher.

According to official news, the Bonus Earn Coin activity area under Gate DEX will officially launch the Nest Protocol staking event from January 20, 20:00 to February 20, 20:00.This reward event is jointly initiated by the Plume Foundation and Gate DEX, with the reward collection channel supported by Gate Wallet. Users only need to participate in the pUSD staking in the Nest Basis Vault under the Nest Protocol on the Plume network to earn stable base returns while additionally sharing a prize pool of 867,676 PLUME. Rewards are settled daily based on individual staking proportions; the more you stake and the longer you stake, the greater the overall returns.Gate DEX officially launched the Bonus Earn Coin activity area on December 16, 2025. Gate DEX Bonus is a decentralized staking and earning platform that supports multiple token staking, dedicated to providing users with a low-threshold, transparent, and fully on-chain asset appreciation method. Users can participate in the Bonus Earn Coin activity with one click using Gate Wallet, enjoying flexible and diverse earning strategies and maximizing on-chain earning opportunities.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Mester reiterated that a rate cut of 150 basis points is needed this year.

According to Jinshi reports, a research report from CITIC Securities pointed out that in December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000. The structure of non-farm employment growth in December remains poor, mainly concentrated in the healthcare, education, and leisure hotel industries.Overall, the employment market data for December in the United States indicates that employment remains weak, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September, whereas the previous forecast was for rate cuts in January and April.

According to Jinshi, Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and December, whereas the previous forecast was for rate cuts in March and June.

According to Jinshi News, JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026, having previously anticipated a 25 basis point cut in January. JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the third quarter of 2027.

Goldman Sachs released its 2026 economic outlook, expecting strong growth in the U.S. economy alongside moderate inflation. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates two more times, with 25 basis point cuts still expected in June and September.

According to Jin Ten, Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September, whereas the previous forecast was for rate cuts in January and April this year.