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BTC $66,942.52 -3.41%
ETH $1,947.15 -3.84%
BNB $601.23 -3.14%
XRP $1.36 -3.32%
SOL $80.56 -4.57%
TRX $0.2762 -0.62%
DOGE $0.0902 -3.03%
ADA $0.2562 -2.28%
BCH $516.16 -0.94%
LINK $8.33 -2.90%
HYPE $29.32 -2.43%
AAVE $107.54 -2.27%
SUI $0.8941 -4.28%
XLM $0.1528 -3.59%
ZEC $228.51 -2.72%

elite

10x Research: Predicts that market profits are driven by a few elites, while most participants are more like "emotion-based bettors."

10x Research points out in its latest series of studies (Part Two) that although prediction markets often claim to embody "collective intelligence," data indicates that the accuracy and profitability of the markets primarily come from a small number of information-advantaged professional traders, rather than the general public.The report states that the behavior of most users is more akin to sports betting, favoring narratives, emotion-driven decisions, and long-odds bets; in contrast, a small group of professionals systematically achieves stable returns by pricing probabilities, hedging risks, and exploiting order flow imbalances and expected convergence.Part One of 10x Research previously analyzed structural inflection points in prediction markets, including the acceleration of liquidity, clarification of regulations, and the rapid entry of both institutions and retail investors, noting that early advantages in new markets are often captured by "information advantaged" participants. Part Three will provide ten actionable trading frameworks and real-world case studies for prediction markets.The team believes that as prediction markets are set to expand further in 2026, now is a critical window to examine trading structures, emphasizing that "understanding its core mechanisms is crucial before liquidity deepens and simple arbitrage opportunities disappear."
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