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BTC $80,869.78 -0.18%
ETH $2,315.28 -0.86%
BNB $655.80 +0.53%
XRP $1.47 +2.31%
SOL $95.03 +0.97%
TRX $0.3510 +0.13%
DOGE $0.1094 +1.01%
ADA $0.2802 +1.65%
BCH $450.01 -1.00%
LINK $10.46 -0.90%
HYPE $41.06 -4.50%
AAVE $99.31 +0.08%
SUI $1.26 +9.54%
XLM $0.1674 +1.06%
ZEC $552.14 -7.63%

flows

Analysis: Bitcoin surged and then fell below $80,000, with ETF capital outflows and geopolitical risks combining to suppress market sentiment

Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark this week, following a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, as the market's rebound momentum from February's lows showed signs of cooling. The U.S. April non-farm payroll data added 115,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 62,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Although the overall data was relatively strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty; instead, it reinforced expectations that "energy-driven inflation limits the space for interest rate cuts."In terms of capital flow, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $277 million on Thursday, ending a previous cumulative inflow of $1.69 billion; the Ethereum ETF also recorded a net outflow of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling of institutional risk appetite. On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the U.S. have escalated again, prompting the market to reprice the risks in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in oil prices, which partially offset the support that previous risk assets received from the decline in oil prices.The derivatives market shows a more long-term hawkish outlook, with interest rate futures pricing in over a 50% probability of rate hikes beyond 2027, suggesting that the easing cycle may be delayed until 2028. On-chain data indicates that the current rise in Bitcoin is primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining relatively low, and funding rates maintaining a moderate level, resulting in a weak market momentum structure. Analysts believe that if retail funds do not return, BTC may still face the risk of testing the support range of $75,000 to $78,000.

CoinShares: Crypto ETPs have seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks, with a total inflow of over $4 billion in five weeks

According to The Block, CoinShares released a report showing that last week, global crypto asset ETPs recorded a net inflow of $117.8 million, achieving a fifth consecutive week of net inflows, with a cumulative inflow of over $4 billion in five weeks and a total management scale of approximately $155 billion. However, the funding structure has shown significant differentiation.The report pointed out that from Monday to Thursday, there was a total net outflow of $619 million, but on Friday, a large inflow of $737 million was recorded in a single day, reversing the week to a net inflow, reflecting a significant rebound in market risk appetite before the weekend. From a regional perspective, net inflows in the U.S. market dropped to $47.5 million, a significant slowdown compared to the previous week's $1.1 billion; Germany and Canada recorded inflows of $43.8 million and $16 million, respectively, with European funds performing relatively steadily.In terms of assets, Bitcoin-related products led the way with a weekly inflow of $192.1 million, of which the U.S. spot ETF contributed approximately $162.8 million; Ethereum products, on the other hand, saw a net outflow of $81.6 million. Analysts believe that the number of participating assets has decreased from 9 to 4, indicating that market sentiment weakened significantly in the middle of the week before showing signs of recovery.

Analysis: Bitcoin faces key resistance levels, with continuous outflows from ETFs and increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve causing the market to remain cautious

Bitcoin fluctuated around $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, market focus quickly shifted to internal policy divisions and macro uncertainties. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking breakthrough momentum in the short term.Kraken's chief economist Thomas Perfumo stated that the current market is more concerned about the policy uncertainties brought about by the "division" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself, especially against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure alongside expectations of Kevin Warsh potentially taking over, leading to a lack of clear policy transition. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin is still "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support located between $65,000 and $70,000.Although selling pressure has eased, demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward breakthrough. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve has rarely shown severe divisions, which the market interprets as an increase in uncertainty regarding the inflation path. Institutions such as Bitget Wallet and 21Shares pointed out that expectations of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer term" are suppressing the performance of risk assets, leading the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.In terms of capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with approximately $138 million flowing out on April 29 alone; Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million during the same period. Although some individual products still have inflows, the overall trend indicates that institutional demand is cooling.Meanwhile, while CME positions and ETF assets under management have stabilized, there has not yet been a strong signal of capital returning. The derivatives market shows that short positions in perpetual contracts have reached historical highs; if sentiment improves, it may trigger a short squeeze, but the current market remains characterized by low volatility and low confidence. Overall, Bitcoin is caught between an improving support structure and weak demand, with continuous ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macro risks collectively suppressing its breakthrough of key resistance levels.
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