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DWF Labs: Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows lag behind the market, making it difficult to predict future rises and falls

According to a report by Cointelegraph, DWF Labs pointed out in a research report released on Thursday that the daily capital flow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF is difficult to predict for Bitcoin's subsequent trends, with investors more inclined to buy after price increases and withdraw during declines.The study covers 694 trading days since the launch of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024: in 8 instances where the Bitcoin price fell by 15%, there were net outflows of ETF funds in 7 of those cases; while in all 9 instances where the price rose by 15%, there were net inflows of funds.DWF Labs concluded that ETF capital flows are more about confirming market trends rather than predicting them in advance. Data shows that the correlation coefficient of the day's ETF capital flow with the price changes of Bitcoin over the previous 5 trading days is 0.54, but the correlation coefficient with the price changes over the subsequent 5 trading days is only 0.03. From October 2025 to February 2026, the net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs was approximately $6.9 billion, and during the market decline from May to June 2026, the net outflow was about $8.2 billion.DWF Labs also noted that some ETF trades may involve buying fund shares while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin through futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as a hedging strategy, so the capital flow does not directly reflect investors' true bullish or bearish positions.

CMCC Global will tokenize two quantitative hedge funds and issue them through Tether and Bitfinex Securities

According to PR Newswire, the blockchain asset management firm CMCC Global announced the tokenization of its Crest Fund (Crest) and Liberty Bitcoin Accumulation Fund (LBAF), calling them the first tokenized master fund products issued under El Salvador's digital asset legal framework.The two funds will be issued using Tether's Hadron tokenization platform and will raise funds from qualified investors through the regulated Bitfinex Securities platform, with the subscription period ending on October 30, 2026. Both funds are multi-manager quantitative hedge funds that invest in market-neutral strategies in the digital asset market, including funding rates, cross-exchange and volatility arbitrage, market making, and DeFi strategies. Among them, Crest is denominated in USD, targeting returns above U.S. Treasury yields; LBAF is denominated in Bitcoin, targeting a net annualized return of 8% to 12%.BTCS S.A., a digital asset treasury company listed in Poland and Frankfurt, has agreed to act as a cornerstone investor and plans to allocate a three-digit number of Bitcoins to LBAF, with the specific amount not yet disclosed. The token issuance price is set at $10 per CREST and 0.0001 BTC per LBAF, with a minimum subscription of one token; eligible holders can also trade on the secondary market through Bitfinex Securities around the clock.

first_img Pump.fun Co-founder Alon: Self-developed cross-chain bridge has been launched, purchase error rate has decreased by 92%

The co-founder and Chief Operating Officer Alon of the meme coin issuance platform Pump.fun stated that the team had previously focused on launch pads for a long time and only began supporting cross-chain exchanges about 5 months ago. After investigating the cross-chain service provider Relay used at that time, he noted that over one-ninth of cross-chain purchases on Relay encountered errors, with typical purchase landing times close to 4 seconds, and one-tenth exceeding 7 seconds. The number of tokens users received was usually less than expected. He also mentioned that the social trading application FOMO still relies on Relay.Alon stated that the self-developed cross-chain bridge Pump Bridge has been opened to all Pump.fun application users. Compared to Relay, the purchase landing speed has improved by 2 times, and the error rate has decreased by 92%, dropping from over one-ninth to less than one percent. Users can obtain more tokens on average with the same amount of funds, and currently, no additional cross-chain fees are charged. He mentioned that due to the limitations of light speed and target chain confirmation time, the theoretical fastest landing time for purchases is about 1.1 seconds, and the team is still working to reduce the remaining gap.The above comparison comes from random tests conducted in the Pump.fun mobile application from September 28 to October 7, covering Robinhood, BSC, Base, Arc, and Ink, excluding Ethereum, with a total of 416,669 transaction results recorded. Among them, 383,326 transactions recorded the time taken from click to successful prompt, and an additional 35,333 transactions of completed USDC purchases under $500 were used for comparison. Alon also stated that the platform fee rate is 0.45%, with Callout rewards of at least $300,000 daily, totaling about $20 million over two months, and the platform does not retain platform fees.
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