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SpaceX was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week, with historical warnings indicating volatility after the inclusion; TeraWulf's Q1 HPC leasing revenue first exceeded the annual high-margin mining revenue of $630 million

According to BBX data, yesterday marked a milestone for the global largest IPO completion index, with a historic turning point in the valuation logic of AI transformation in mining companies. The core dynamics are as follows:SpaceX, Inc. (NASDAQ: $SPCX) reported on July 7 that the company was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week, becoming the first in history to have the largest single IPO ($75 billion) included in the Nasdaq 100. CoinDesk also issued a historic warning: "The last two largest new constituents added—Palantir ($PLTR) in December 2024 and Strategy ($MSTR) in early 2025—both experienced a phase decline after inclusion, rather than starting a new round of increases"; analysts pointed out that passive funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 complete "forced buying" at the time of inclusion, and if there are no new fundamental catalysts afterward, stock prices often pull back after technical buying subsides. Specific risks currently facing SpaceX include: a net loss of approximately $4.27 billion in Q1 2026 (mainly due to xAI integration expenses), a $2 billion bond issuance plan, and a 3.4% equity dilution from the $60 billion acquisition of Cursor/Anysphere; Morningstar maintains a fair value estimate of $62 per share, indicating about a 70% implied downside from the current market price. For the market holding SpaceX Bitcoin (18,712 coins, approximately $1.2 billion, held in Coinbase Prime), the inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 will trigger a larger scale of SPCX holdings by passive funds, further bridging the gap between traditional index investors and indirect exposure to Bitcoin assets.TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: $WULF) according to the latest analysis, the company's high-performance computing (HPC) leasing revenue in Q1 2026 reached $21 million, accounting for about 62% of the total revenue of $34 million, surpassing Bitcoin mining revenue for the first time—this marks TeraWulf's first historic revenue structure reversal after transitioning to an AI/HPC infrastructure company, with a 117% increase from the $9.7 million HPC revenue in Q4 2025. The company has currently signed over 522 megawatts of AI/HPC leases with Core42 and Fluidstack, with an expected annual high-margin revenue of approximately $630 million; the energy structure consists of nuclear power + hydropower, with an average electricity cost of about $0.035 per kilowatt-hour, one of the lowest among similar mining companies. The company is also developing a new campus in Kentucky, adding approximately 480 megawatts of grid access capacity; analysts have significantly raised their target price ranges, with Keefe Bruyette & Woods raising from $23 to $37, Clear Street from $26 to $38, Jefferies initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of $37, and BTIG raising at the same time. The company's stock price has increased by approximately 88% year-to-date in 2026, leading the gains in the mining sector.

TeraWulf's Q1 HPC revenue surpasses Bitcoin mining for the first time, as the trend of transitioning computing power to AI infrastructure accelerates

Bitcoin mining company TeraWulf announced its Q1 financial report, showing that its high-performance computing (HPC) business has for the first time surpassed Bitcoin mining revenue, marking a critical stage in the company's transformation towards AI and cloud computing infrastructure.The company's total revenue for Q1 was $34 million, roughly flat compared to the same period last year. Among this, HPC leasing revenue reached $21 million, surpassing the less than $13 million from digital asset mining for the first time, becoming the main source of income. The financial report also indicated that the company's net loss widened to $427.6 million, mainly due to the impact of non-cash warrant revaluation. However, CFO Patrick Fleury emphasized that the company is transitioning from "volatile mining revenue" to "stable long-term computing power contract revenue." Currently, TeraWulf has 60 MW of HPC capacity generating revenue at its Lake Mariner data center in New York and plans to continue expanding within the year. At the same time, the company is transforming part of its mining infrastructure into AI/HPC computing resources to support massive computing power demands. This trend is spreading throughout the industry, with Bitcoin mining companies like Riot Platforms also expanding their revenue structure through data centers and AI contracts, gradually transforming into "computing power infrastructure companies."

Bitcoin mining companies are facing the choice of expanding market share or fully investing in AI

According to ChainCatcher news, as reported by CoinDesk, Bitcoin mining companies are at a critical crossroads: they can choose to pivot towards artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) to boost their stock prices, or they can stick to their core Bitcoin mining business and expand their market share while facing sluggish stock prices.In September, the largest market cap mining companies, MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and CleanSpark (CLSK), all increased their share of the total Bitcoin mined. These companies have stronger balance sheets and larger mining operations, which help them cope with the decline in profitability following the Bitcoin halving in April. However, investors have not rewarded these companies' stocks with a premium, and their performance remained lackluster in September.In contrast, mining companies focusing on AI and HPC, such as Core Scientific (CORZ), TerraWulf (WULF), and IREN (IREN), have seen their stock prices outperform Bitcoin. The halving in April reduced Bitcoin mining rewards by 50%, intensifying competition in mining and narrowing profit margins.Additionally, the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. has also diminished investors' interest in mining stocks. Instead, investors are rewarding those mining companies that utilize part of their data centers to host AI and HPC-related machines for revenue diversification.AI and HPC computing require a significant amount of electricity, and Bitcoin miners have already secured these resources, making them ideal candidates for rapidly expanding AI and HPC companies. In September, the stock prices of large-cap mining companies rose by 4% to 9%, while those associated with AI and HPC saw price increases of up to 25%.
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