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Viewpoint: The semiconductor short positions may limit the rebound, optimistic about Chinese technology stocks and the cryptocurrency market

Trader degentrading (@degentradingLSD) released a pre-market analysis. Regarding semiconductors, he believes there are many trapped long positions in the sector, and unless a painful liquidation event occurs leading to a V-shaped rebound, any rebound will be limited by selling pressure as prices approach break-even; another possible path is company buybacks, and only MU has the capability to implement this before the expiration of the CHIPS Act-related ban on December 9. He cited Citrini's view that AI capital expenditure growth has peaked, but capital expenditure itself will not stop, just slow down; he personally believes that when growth is priced at zero, any outperformance will bring new upward momentum, thus seeing long opportunities, but he also acknowledges that stock prices may not have bottomed at the current position and could continue to decline.In terms of AI computing power, he pointed out that the previous trading day saw cloud giants rise about 10% while semiconductors fell about 10%, with the market largely attributing this to potential obstacles in new data center construction in the U.S., which would increase the value of existing chips. H100 rents rose 26% year-on-year, GB200 rose 50%, and ORCL disclosed that AI infrastructure utilization reached 98%, which contradicts expectations of computing power depreciation. Regarding Chinese tech stocks, he believes that BABA's rise of about 10% could be a turning point, and if China introduces further policy measures or brings about a strong reversal, coupled with Chinese tech stocks being at historically low valuations.In the cryptocurrency market, he believes BTC is performing strongly, and ZEC is maintaining its gains, with the industry's tailwinds returning as funds move away from the government's original intent. Under expectations of more hostile governments towards cryptocurrencies, policy pressure may actually strengthen the crypto narrative, while policy support could weaken its core supporters.

first_img Semiconductor front-end equipment manufacturer Bangxin Semiconductor has completed over 600 million yuan in Series B+ financing

According to the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily," Shanghai Bangxin Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. recently completed a B+ round of financing, with a total scale exceeding 600 million yuan. This round was led by Jiangxia Ke Investment Group, with follow-on investments from Bank of China Capital, Changjiang Venture Capital, and other institutions. The funds will mainly be used for the research and development of advanced process equipment, capacity construction, and the establishment of a delivery system in the Central China region.Bangxin Semiconductor was established in 2020 and is headquartered in the Shanghai Lingang New Area. It mainly provides front-end process equipment such as etching, photoresist stripping, and thin film deposition for wafer manufacturing companies. The company's chairman, Wang Zhaoxiang, holds a Ph.D. in Physical Chemistry from the University of Science and Technology of China, and the core team comes from leading domestic semiconductor equipment companies. The company has entered the supply chain of leading domestic memory chip and wafer manufacturing enterprises, with multiple equipment validated by customers and achieving mass installation, with over 100 units expected to be delivered by 2025.Jiangxia Ke Investment Group is also the project initiator for Bangxin's Wuhan project. On April 22 of this year, Bangxin's Central China production base located in the Jiangxia Intelligent Manufacturing Industrial Park in Wuhan commenced construction; on October 28, the first phase of this base officially went into production. The first phase covers an area of over 4,500 square meters and is responsible for assembly, testing, process validation, and delivery. After reaching full production capacity, it is planned to produce 100 semiconductor equipment units annually, with an annual output value of 600 million yuan. The Hubei Provincial Economic and Information Technology Department referred to this project as the first core equipment project for the front-end of the semiconductor industry chain in the Jiangxia District.

first_img Semiconductor equipment manufacturers secure supply contracts for 2028 in advance

According to a report by Korean Electronic News on November 3, major global semiconductor equipment companies such as Applied Materials, ASML, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA have entered the final stages of equipment supply contracts for 2028, with some companies also beginning discussions on procurement orders for equipment available in 2029. Industry insiders say that there is a surge in demand centered around front-end processes, with a desire to quickly move equipment into fabs. Core equipment partners of companies like TSMC, Micron, and Intel are formulating supply strategies for 2029, and some Korean equipment companies that directly trade with these overseas manufacturers are also reviewing supply plans for two to three years ahead.Discussions on wafer fab equipment supply contracts typically start 6 to 12 months before implementation, with delivery taking about 3 to 6 months after purchase orders are placed. Reports indicate that investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure continues, and semiconductor manufacturers are simultaneously advancing large-scale equipment investments, with equipment delivery times now more than doubled compared to usual, with some categories exceeding 2 years, and related contracts being pushed forward by 1 to 2 years compared to normal. ASML stated during its earnings announcement last month that it expects no interruptions in the supply of lithography equipment until 2028 and is also exploring plans to expand future capacity.An executive from a global equipment company stated that discussing equipment supply three years out at this point is unusual, and combined with the current state of fab investments, this trend is expected to continue until 2030. Another industry insider mentioned that global front-end and back-end investments are proceeding in parallel, and the trend of signing equipment import contracts earlier than competitors may spread to the back-end sector, prompting Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to take measures to secure core process equipment in advance. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are currently continuing to advance their fab investments.

first_img Thirteen IPOs on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board were terminated this year, with semiconductor companies accounting for nearly 40%

The Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily cited Wind data stating that by 2026, 76 IPOs had terminated their review, with 13 from the Science and Technology Innovation Board, accounting for 17.1%. In 2025, a total of 50 IPOs were terminated, with only 3 from the Science and Technology Innovation Board, accounting for 6%. The total fundraising scale of terminated IPOs on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2026 was 18.248 billion yuan, nearly 5 times the 3.181 billion yuan in the same period of 2025. After entering the fourth quarter, Saikexis and Zhongke Innovation successively terminated their reviews.Among the 13 terminated projects on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 5 were related to semiconductor and integrated circuit companies, including Wuhan Xinxin, Shanghai Xinyi, Beijing Tongmei, Taosheng Electronics, and Yadian Technology, accounting for approximately 38.5%. Beijing Tongmei was the only project that terminated during the registration phase, accepted on January 10, 2022, submitted for registration on August 1 of the same year, and terminated registration on July 2, 2026, lasting over 4 years. Wuhan Xinxin was accepted at the end of September 2024 and terminated in May 2026, queuing for nearly 600 days, intending to raise 4.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 26.3% of the total intended fundraising of the 13 terminated projects.The duration from acceptance to termination varied significantly. Huihe Medical was accepted on June 30, 2026, and terminated on September 24, taking 86 days, making it the first IPO to withdraw after being selected for on-site inspection this year. Saikexis voluntarily withdrew six months after acceptance, marking the third IPO failure in six years. Huandong Technology was accepted on November 25, 2024, and terminated on September 21, 2026, lasting about 22 months, being the first robot company to terminate an IPO this year, mainly engaged in robotic joint reducers, sponsored by GF Securities. According to the criteria of semiconductors, software equipment, hardware services, etc., there have been 37 IPO listing applications that have become invalid in the Hong Kong stock market this year, compared to 11 in the same period last year.

Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor exposure explains about 54% of the earnings difference, while oil prices account for only 2%

Goldman Sachs' latest research shows that over the past three weeks, semiconductor stock exposure has been able to explain about 54% of the return performance differences between different asset classes, while oil price exposure accounts for only 2%. As the influence of AI trading continues to expand, technology stocks are becoming an important factor driving global market risk appetite and asset performance differentiation.Goldman Sachs pointed out that recent investor risk appetite has been highly synchronized with the relative performance of large technology stocks. Last week, concerns about AI investment returns, financing costs, and capital expenditures intensified, leading to a sell-off in technology stocks and corporate bonds, with Goldman Sachs' risk appetite indicator falling to its lowest level since April 2025. The South Korean stock market has become a typical case of this impact, with the KOSPI rising 3.1% on Tuesday, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics increasing by 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively.Due to the high weight of semiconductor stocks in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, changes in global AI investment expectations directly affect local market performance. Goldman Sachs emphasized that the 54% and 2% figures reflect a statistical relationship within a specific time window and do not imply that AI factors long-term determine global market fluctuations; the impact of high oil prices on inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing cannot be ignored. Major technology companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are about to announce their earnings reports, and the market will focus on whether AI demand can continue to grow and whether massive capital expenditures can be converted into actual profits.
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