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Data: Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a low point not seen in the past two years, and the market may be brewing for significant fluctuations

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's current volatility has compressed to very low levels, and the market has not yet formed a clear direction. The Bollinger Band width is currently around 3.8% to 3.9%, one of the lowest levels in the past two years, while it was still at double-digit levels at the beginning of July. He pointed out that a significant narrowing of the Bollinger Bands usually indicates that the market is entering a compression phase before volatility expansion, but this indicator alone cannot determine the direction of the next market trend.In terms of trend strength, the Bitcoin ADX indicator has currently dropped to 11, close to recent lows, and is significantly below the 25 threshold used by its model to confirm trends. Currently, TrendActive has not yet been activated, and neither bullish nor bearish signals have appeared; the last directional signal at the beginning of July was bearish, but the current market structure no longer confirms this signal. Adler stated that for the market to enter a new trend phase, the Bollinger Band width needs to expand again from the current compressed state, while the ADX breaks above 25. Subsequently, the direction can be judged based on the relationship between +DI and -DI: if one side leads by more than 5 points, it may trigger the corresponding bullish or bearish signal. He believes that Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase, with both volatility and trend strength at low levels, and the risk of a false breakout in the short term still exists. The current structure increases the possibility of significant volatility expansion in the future, but it is still unclear whether the price will ultimately break upwards or downwards.

The chairman of the U.S. SEC plans to restructure the securities regulatory tracking system CAT and explore the possibility of the SEC taking over and reforming the funding mechanism

Chairman Paul S. Atkins of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) wrote to Robert Walley, Chairman of the Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) Operating Committee, indicating that the SEC plans to undertake a comprehensive reform of the CAT system, including adjustments to its governance structure, funding sources, and operational model.Atkins stated that during his tenure, the SEC has significantly reduced the annual operating costs of CAT by issuing exemptions and approving amendments to the CAT NMS plan, and has eliminated the requirement to report personally identifiable information (PII) to the CAT system.These reforms have lowered system costs and the scope of data collection, but CAT still faces fundamental issues regarding costs, governance, and funding mechanisms. To address these issues, the SEC released a concept request for comments on April 16, 2026, to conduct a comprehensive review of CAT and other audit trail systems and data sources used in the regulation of U.S. securities markets.The SEC indicated that it has received hundreds of feedback comments, with one core consensus being that investors and market participants want the SEC to take more responsibility for the management and funding arrangements of CAT.Atkins stated that he has asked SEC staff to propose deep reforms for CAT, including: 1. Exploring new funding sources for CAT, including the use of congressional appropriations and transaction fees under Section 31 of the Securities Exchange Act; 2. Drafting rule proposals that, if approved, would repeal Rule 613 and require exchanges, FINRA, and broker-dealers to continue using the existing CAT infrastructure and reporting standards to submit CAT data directly to the SEC or its designated agency; 3. Assessing the internal resource needs of the SEC to prepare for the SEC's future assumption of governance responsibilities for CAT.The SEC expects that this reform will involve multiple stages and will need to be advanced simultaneously, with the overall transition potentially lasting until the end of 2027.
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