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According to Cointelegraph, analyst Yashu Gola stated that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen over 35% in the past year, and the current trend is repeating the bearish structure from 2024 to 2025, suggesting there may still be further downside potential.From a technical perspective, ETH/BTC has been constrained by a downward trend line since 2022, with several previous breakout attempts failing, one of which triggered a subsequent decline of nearly 70%. In August 2025, after testing the trend line again, ETH/BTC encountered resistance and fell below the 20-month EMA support around 0.034, indicating that bears still dominate the trend. If weakness persists, the next key downside target is around 0.0176 BTC, which represents about a 40% drop from current levels, corresponding to the 2020 cycle low area.On-chain data shows that the selling pressure risk for ETH is also rising. CryptoQuant data indicates that as of today, ETH reserves on the Binance platform have risen to 3.62 million, accounting for about 24.6% of all trading platform ETH reserves; meanwhile, BTC reserves on Binance have continued to decline during the same period. Generally, an increase in trading platform reserves indicates a greater supply of tokens available for sale, while a decrease in reserves reflects an enhanced trend of long-term holding.Analysts believe this further reinforces the fundamental divergence between ETH and BTC: ETH faces higher circulating supply pressure, while BTC benefits from tightening exchange liquidity and continued institutional accumulation. Meanwhile, the narrative of Ethereum as "ultrasound money" has weakened, while BTC continues to receive corporate buying support, including from Strategy, as well as backing from Wall Street funds.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $212,520 in a single bet on the event "Nottingham Forest Football Club vs Newcastle United Football Club," specifically targeting "Newcastle United Football Club." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this bet is 46%.

Crypto analyst Murphy stated that data shows retail investors have not generally missed out on this round of Bitcoin market. He pointed out that addresses holding less than 1 BTC have increased their balance by 23,074 BTC in the past 30 days, and there were three significant accumulations around $66,000, $70,000, and $80,000.Murphy believes that the retail investors still in the Bitcoin market during this cycle are mostly "veteran players" who have experienced the altcoin and contract cycles. Meanwhile, whales holding more than 10,000 BTC began to significantly increase their holdings around $66,000, with a peak increase of 140,699 BTC in the 30-day balance, marking the largest net growth in nearly two years, showing clear accumulation behavior. Murphy stated that the market will always move towards areas of less resistance, and when the lower resistance is greater, prices naturally tend to continue upward until they encounter stronger resistance.

NASDAQ-listed Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings has initiated a consent solicitation process for holders of its $600 million senior secured notes to amend certain covenant terms.MARA had previously signed an agreement on April 29 to acquire 100% of the parent company of Long Ridge. Since this transaction would trigger the "change of control" clause in the notes, it theoretically requires a cash buyback of all outstanding notes at 101% of the price. MARA is seeking the consent of noteholders to exclude this transaction from the definition of "change of control" and to designate MARA and its affiliates as "permitted holders."

According to the Daily Economic News, DeepSeek is rarely launching a massive financing plan, simultaneously attracting two major companies, Tencent and Alibaba. Previously, there were media reports that Alibaba and DeepSeek had a breakdown in negotiations. In response, an insider revealed exclusively to reporters on May 9 that Alibaba should not have been in negotiations.

Strike CEO Jack Mallers stated in the What Bitcoin Did podcast that Wall Street's increasing involvement in Bitcoin will not pose a threat or conflict to Bitcoin itself.He pointed out that if Wall Street's intervention could destroy Bitcoin, then Bitcoin would not have been able to succeed from the very beginning. The vision of Bitcoin is to become the currency for all humanity, which means its user base encompasses everyone. Currently, Bitcoin is competing for global capital, and as Bitcoin becomes monetized, assets such as real estate, art, and government debt will face demonetization. In addition, traditional financial institutions are accelerating their capture of crypto platform customers, with Morgan Stanley launching a cryptocurrency trading pilot on the E*Trade platform, charging retail fees lower than mainstream platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of America’s latest forecast shows that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts until the second half of 2027, primarily due to high inflation levels and strong employment growth. Bank of America economists stated, "We no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year." At the same time, they pointed out that multiple shock factors affecting the economy, including the Iran war, tariffs, and the rise of artificial intelligence, make predicting interest rate changes more difficult.

According to market news, Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings has initiated a holder consent solicitation process regarding Long Ridge Energy's $600 million senior secured notes to amend the relevant covenant terms.MARA had previously signed an agreement on April 29 to acquire 100% of the parent company of Long Ridge. Since this transaction would trigger the "change of control" clause in the notes, it theoretically requires a cash buyback of all outstanding notes at 101% of the price. MARA is seeking the consent of the noteholders to exclude this transaction from the definition of "change of control" and to list MARA and its affiliates as "permitted holders."

According to CoinDesk, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated in a speech that Europe should not simply replicate the U.S. stablecoin model, but should prioritize building tokenized settlement infrastructure centered around central bank currencies.She pointed out that the $310 billion stablecoin market, dominated by Tether and Circle, poses financial stability risks and could transmit pressure to underlying asset markets during times of crisis. Lagarde believes that the technological advantages of stablecoins can be replicated by central bank infrastructure, while their monetary functions introduce unacceptable financial stability risks. She cited the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which led to a brief de-pegging of USDC, as an example.Although a consortium of 12 major European banks, including ING, BBVA, and BNP Paribas, plans to launch a private digital euro later this year, citing that Europe faces "dollarization risks," Lagarde still called for EU countries to support the research and development of central bank digital currencies. The European Central Bank aims to launch a digital euro by 2029.

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking behavior in the Bitcoin market may further increase.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since early April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." The current profit metric for short-term holders remains above 1, indicating that the market has been in a continuous profit-taking phase since mid-April. Analysts believe that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to manifest.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that positive progress on inflation will lead to interest rate cuts, but such a situation has not yet occurred.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) recently issued a notice reminding the public to be cautious of certain unlicensed platforms and related market promotional activities, mentioning HabitTrade.In response, HabitTrade issued a statement claiming that it is a licensed Australian brokerage and compliant financial services platform, and has not conducted any regulated business in Hong Kong, nor promoted or provided related services to the public in Hong Kong.The statement also pointed out that some third-party promotional content, video materials, and platform traffic diversion activities that have recently appeared in the market do not represent the official position of HabitTrade. The company reserves the right to trace and take legal action against any misleading promotions and violations using its brand, technological channels, or partnerships without authorization.HabitTrade stated that it will continue to adhere to a compliance-first approach and cooperate with the regulatory requirements of relevant jurisdictions to conduct necessary investigations.

According to Jinshi reports, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that there are no signs of runaway inflation, so the Federal Reserve does not need to raise interest rates.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that both the labor market and inflation expectations do not point to higher inflation.

The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April will be released tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8), with an expected addition of only 62,000 jobs, far below the growth rate of previous years, but enough to keep the unemployment rate at a relatively low level of 4.3%. The annual wage inflation rate is expected to rise from 3.5% to 3.8%. In the past, when the monthly non-farm job additions in the U.S. were below 100,000, it was often seen as a signal of a weakening labor market and an economy on the brink of recession. However, the employment landscape has changed; Federal Reserve official Logan has publicly stated, "Currently, adding about 30,000 jobs per month is sufficient to achieve supply-demand balance in the labor market."According to CME FedWatch data, before the non-farm data release tonight, the probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all for the rest of the year is 72.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next meeting (in June) is 5.2%.

According to Coindesk, Hunter Horsley, co-founder and CEO of Bitwise, stated at the Miami Consensus 2026 conference regarding the "recent negative sentiment in the DeFi sector," "I believe DeFi is still doing very well." The recent specific event is operational security issues, not smart contracts being hacked. He also believes that the crypto industry is rapidly entering the mainstream, and DeFi and on-chain treasuries need to respond to this moment; treasuries have only been around for two years, "not all treasuries are equally reliable, and early entrants need to do more homework." Yoni Assia, co-founder and CEO of eToro, also stated that DeFi "is the inevitable future."In the roundtable discussion, several guests made predictions about DeFi TVL over the next five years: eToro CEO Yoni Assia gave a figure of $5 trillion; Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley provided $500 billion; a16z Crypto partner Guy Wuollet declined to give a specific number, only stating, "My number is up and to the right."

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, multiple industry insiders have revealed that the Senate Banking Committee may notify about the review of the CLARITY Act as early as tomorrow and has distributed the legislative draft text to some industry members, with a vote expected next Thursday.Insiders stated that the language of the draft is still being finalized, and additional revisions are anticipated to reflect the priorities of the Democratic office. One insider, after reviewing the bill and coordinating with industry leaders, indicated that the overall atmosphere is currently positive, but some terms in parentheses have raised concerns, and some key provisions that were previously thought to be resolved may still be subject to change.