ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that President Trump's haphazardly introduced tariff policies could put the Federal Reserve in a lose-lose situation: either respond to an economic recession or deal with a period of stagflation. In this week's meeting, how the Federal Reserve will navigate these trade-offs will be a tricky communication challenge. Powell and other officials are expected to maintain their wait-and-see stance on interest rate cuts and develop strategies on how to refine this position. This deliberate patience reflects officials' efforts to avoid prematurely abandoning their commitment to combating inflation. Richard Clarida, senior advisor at bond giant Pacific Investment Management Company, stated, "This will not be a cycle where the Fed preemptively cuts rates due to a forecast of economic slowdown. They actually need to see this in tangible data, especially in the labor market."

ChainCatcher news, according to Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," posted on X that U.S. President Trump signaled that if his trade war leads to economic weakness and the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates quickly, he will blame the Federal Reserve.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve mouthpiece Nick Timiraos posted on X platform that Goldman Sachs now expects the core PCE to rise to 3.5% in 2025, up from the previous 3.0% under the scenario of "less aggressive tariffs." Despite upward inflationary pressures, Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in the second half of this year to address the impacts on economic growth and employment.

ChainCatcher news, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that economists providing detailed inflation forecasts expect the CPI in August to be relatively mild, just like in July.The median forecast shows that the core CPI will increase by 0.21% month-on-month, which will keep the 12-month inflation rate at 3.2%. The overall CPI is expected to slow down to 2.5%. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos' latest article states that although it is unlikely that Federal Reserve officials will cut interest rates next week, the developments in inflation and the labor market should prompt officials to signal a rate cut at the September meeting. Powell, who tends to act sooner, has been weighing the risks of cutting rates too early against waiting too long, a question that will be addressed in next week's meeting. Officials hope to have more evidence that inflation is indeed cooling before crossing the threshold for a rate cut. Nevertheless, there is growing concern among officials that waiting too long could lead to a bubble in a soft landing. The Fed's readiness to cut rates reflects three factors: favorable inflation, a cooling job market, and a changing consideration of the dual risks of allowing inflation to remain at excessively high levels and causing unnecessary economic weakness.

ChainCatcher news, according to Securities Star, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that after the employment report was released last Friday, JPMorgan and Citigroup abandoned their calls for a rate cut in July. Most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers now expect the Fed to cut rates once or twice this September or December.

ChainCatcher news, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," stated that given the Federal Reserve officials' insufficient response to the inflation data in January and February, the risk of an overreaction to the hot inflation data in March is greater. The Federal Reserve is trying to avoid making policy based on one or two data points, but the resilience of economic activity so far this year means that the justification for rate cuts in mid-year will depend on whether inflation resumes the steady decline trend seen since the second half of last year.If inflation in March and April is moderate, the Federal Reserve may cut rates in June. However, if inflation falters again in March, it could disrupt the rate cut plans for June and push the timing of the first rate cut to the Fed's July meeting, or even later.

ChainCatcher news, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," stated on social media that it is difficult to predict the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, especially regarding its future actions. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates at all seven of its meetings last year. There was one increase of 25 basis points, two increases of 50 basis points, and four increases of 75 basis points. Bank of America predicted last year that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by 25 basis points at all seven FOMC meetings in 2022, which was considered an "impossible" prediction at the time. This would have brought the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate to 1.9%. By the end of last year, the benchmark rate was 4.4%.It is reported that the Federal Reserve will announce the upper limit of its rate decision at 3:00 AM Beijing time on February 2, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 3:30 AM. (source link)

ChainCatcher news, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," wrote that Federal Reserve officials are preparing to slow the pace of interest rate hikes for the second consecutive meeting and are debating the terminal rate. Previously, they had gained more confidence that inflation would ease further this year. In recent public speeches and interviews, Federal Reserve officials have stated that slowing the rate of increase to a more traditional 25 basis points would give them more time to assess the impact of the rate hikes, allowing them to decide where to stop raising rates. Federal Reserve officials may begin to consider whether to pause rate hikes this spring and when to do so. (Jin10)