ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 83.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 16.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 27.1%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 61.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 11.1%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Tickmill analyst Joseph Dahrieh stated in a report that the U.S. CPI inflation data could cause U.S. Treasury yields to move in either direction. A higher-than-expected CPI could boost yields and ease recent expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.Conversely, soft inflation data would lead to a decline in yields. He also mentioned that recent progress towards a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would help enhance risk appetite. Currently, institutional surveys of analysts indicate that the overall and core inflation rates in the U.S. for February are expected to decline slightly.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the January CPI data today at 21:30 (Beijing time). If the inflation data is lower than expected, it may boost market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, pushing down U.S. Treasury yields and weakening the dollar, which would be beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.However, data from Mott Capital Management shows that the two-year inflation swap rate has risen to 2.8%, a new high since the beginning of 2023, indicating that the market expects future inflation pressures may rise.Analysts from BlackRock and the Royal Bank of Canada believe that persistent inflation in the service sector and wage growth above the Federal Reserve's 2% target may force the Fed to maintain high interest rates. CME data shows that the market expects a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates once this year or remain on hold. Bitcoin is currently consolidating in the range of $90,000 to $110,000, with little likelihood of a breakout in the short term.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, BeiChen Lin, an analyst at Russell Investments, stated in a report that even if the U.S. inflation report released on Wednesday is only slightly above expectations, it could trigger a sell-off in the bond and stock markets. This investment strategist noted that last Friday's exceptionally strong U.S. employment report seems to have awakened concerns about inflation.He stated, "Although we believe that U.S. Treasury yields are attractive at current levels, we still think that unless yields rise significantly, it is best for investors to stick close to their long-term allocation ratios." Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the U.S. CPI in December to increase by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in November. The survey indicates that the annual core inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.Live analyst Adam posted that Bitcoin has retraced after failing to breach the $100,000 mark, with ETF funds continuing to flow out. Trump is about to officially take office as President of the United States, but major speculative markets are filled with risk-averse sentiment, leading to significant declines in U.S. stocks. Next week (January 13 to 19), the market focus will be on the release of the U.S. CPI data on Wednesday. This will be the most important macro data before Trump's inauguration, and the market is now waiting for the various promises made by Trump to be fulfilled.In the options market, due to ample institutional margins, there is a large sell-off whenever there is an opportunity to sell, resulting in a noticeable decline in short- to medium-term implied volatility (IV). From the options trading perspective, large bullish options trades are active, mainly used to supplement institutional short positions, with January options being relatively undervalued and March options being relatively overvalued.In addition, new EU regulations require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures, with exchanges like Deribit needing to improve KYC to operate normally. In the interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has recently performed steadily, and it is recommended to actively trade at appropriate rates, especially during market volatility.

ChainCatcher message, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the US CPI, the dollar index DXY fluctuated 20 points in the short term, reporting at 106.49.

ChainCatcher message, affected by the North American Daylight Saving Time, the U.S. October CPI data will be released tonight at 21:30. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, last week the "Trump Trade" created a stir in the market. Trump's return to the White House and the Republican Party's potential landslide victory in Congress, along with the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut, have settled two major risk events, driving a significant rebound in the financial markets.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks surged rapidly, with all three major indices hitting new highs last week, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 recorded their best weekly performance of the year. Specifically, the S&P 500 index rose 4.66% over the week, the Dow gained 4.61%, and the Nasdaq increased by 5.74%. Tesla soared to a new high since April 2022, with a weekly gain of 29.01%, pushing its market cap above $1 trillion. Nvidia briefly surpassed Apple to become the world's most valuable company, with a weekly increase of 9.03%. The total market capitalization of the seven tech giants grew by nearly $94 billion over the week.Benefiting from Trump's support for cryptocurrencies and the prospect of pro-crypto lawmakers in Congress, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, setting a new historical high. As of the time of publication, it was at $81,635, with a 7-day cumulative increase of over 18%. Ethereum was reported at $3,207, with a 7-day cumulative increase of over 30%. Altcoins collectively surged, generally outperforming the market, boosting market sentiment.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index rose last week, with a cumulative increase of 0.6% over six consecutive weeks, while non-U.S. currencies were generally under pressure. Oil prices experienced significant fluctuations over the week; early in the week, OPEC+ announced another delay in production increases, causing oil prices to rise sharply. However, U.S. EIA crude oil supplies hit a new high since August, dragging down the weekly oil price gains, with Brent crude rising 1.09% for the week. Spot gold fell 1.85% over the week due to a stronger dollar and the Federal Reserve's indication of an open attitude towards pausing rate cuts.With the U.S. elections concluded, investors will now refocus on the outlook for monetary policy and corporate earnings, continuing to assess the impact of Trump's policy expectations. This week, many Federal Reserve officials will speak, and the latest U.S. CPI data, PPI data, and retail sales figures will serve as important references for investors to gauge the health of the U.S. economy and the extent of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2025. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 76.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 23.9%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 75.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 0%; the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 0%.

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E Exchange observation, the year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. CPI in August fell to 2.5%, marking a decline for the fifth consecutive month, but the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding expectations. The market has lowered its expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rising to 85%.After the data was released, U.S. stocks experienced a V-shaped rebound following an initial drop at the open, with all three major indices closing higher. The Dow Jones increased slightly by 0.31%, the Nasdaq rose by 2.17%, and the S&P 500 index gained 1.07%. Tech stocks led the rebound, with Nvidia rising over 8%. In the foreign exchange and commodities markets, the U.S. dollar index surged, putting pressure on non-U.S. currencies, while gold experienced significant volatility.CPI data indicates that the Federal Reserve is approaching its 2% target, a change that will support future rate cuts, benefiting risk assets and supporting the long-term rise of U.S. stocks and cryptocurrency assets like Bitcoin. However, the Fed's focus on core inflation may lead to a more cautious monetary policy, limiting the short-term upside potential for the market.4E Exchange is a financial trading platform supporting assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodity gold, and foreign exchange, and is a platinum sponsor for Token2049 in 2024. 4E reminds you to be aware of market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 85%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 15% (before the CPI announcement, these were 71% and 29%, respectively).The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by November is 43.8%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 7.3% (before the CPI announcement, these were 27%, 55%, and 18%, respectively). (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that economists providing detailed inflation forecasts expect the CPI in August to be relatively mild, just like in July.The median forecast shows that the core CPI will increase by 0.21% month-on-month, which will keep the 12-month inflation rate at 3.2%. The overall CPI is expected to slow down to 2.5%. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, the CICC major asset inflation sub-item prediction model shows that as long as no black swan events occur, the U.S. CPI inflation is likely to remain in the range of 2.5%-3% this year, and PCE will remain in the range of 2%-2.5%. The risk of secondary inflation in the second half of the year is low, alleviating concerns for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts. (Jin10)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, after the release of the U.S. CPI data, traders have lowered their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Rate traders have reduced their bets on a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's September meeting, now expecting a cut of about 33 basis points, down from yesterday's expectation of 37 basis points.Analyst Chris Anstey noted that it is worth mentioning that the U.S. July CPI inflation rate has now fallen below 3%, the lowest level since inflation first ignited in the spring of 2021. The initial market volatility has been modest. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is currently up over 4 basis points, indicating that some are disappointed that the inflation data has not become more subdued.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 49.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 50.5%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by November is 30%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 100 basis points is 19.9%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest report indicates that the Japanese stock market has rebounded to pre-crash levels today, but investors remain cautious ahead of the U.S. CPI data release this week. The market will focus on the inflation data to determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points in September, with both probabilities currently equal. In addition, the cumulative inflow of the ETH spot ETF has exceeded $901 million after a net inflow yesterday, and Grayscale has achieved zero outflows for the first time. This provides strong support for the ETH price and may act as a catalyst for ETH's recovery.

According to ChainCatcher news, as reported by Jinshi, analysts have indicated that Japanese officials continue to try to keep speculators on alert against the backdrop of a possible change in the authorities' yen strategy, downplaying reports of government officials confirming intervention. Japan's Deputy Finance Minister Masato Kanda stated on Friday, "We have not given any answer regarding whether intervention has occurred."Yesterday, the CPI data released by the United States was weaker than expected, leading to significant fluctuations in the yen and sparking market speculation that Tokyo took advantage of the initial reaction and then entered the market to take action. If this move is proven to be an intervention, it would mark a new development in Japan's strategy to disrupt and fend off yen shorts. Masato Kanda has repeatedly cast doubt on the market regarding Japan's actions, trying to maximize the impact of exchange rate policies. While this does not help change the overall dynamics of the market, it has created a degree of unpredictability, leaving speculators uncertain about when the Japanese government might suddenly intervene.