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first_img Data: Predicted market search popularity has decreased by 83% compared to the peak of the World Cup, with Kalshi leading in transaction volume

According to The Defiant, global interest in prediction markets has returned to levels seen before the 2026 World Cup. Google Trends shows that the global weekly index for "prediction market" reached a five-year high of 100 during the week of June 7-13, then dropped to 17 during the week of August 9-15, a decrease of 83% from the peak; the daily peak occurred on July 19, the day of the World Cup final, reaching 100, and fell to 7 on August 16. The World Cup opened on June 11, maintaining high interest throughout the tournament.In terms of trading volume, DefiLlama data shows that the cash trading volume for prediction markets set a record of $17.27 billion in July, up from $14.78 billion in June; as of August 17, the total trading volume for August is $7.83 billion, with an estimated total for the month of about $14.3 billion, approximately 17% lower than July. Kalshi's trading volumes for June and July were $9.40 billion and $12.37 billion, respectively, with $5.73 billion so far in August; Polymarket's volumes during the same period were $4.29 billion, $3.68 billion, and $1.18 billion. The trading volume ratio of Kalshi to Polymarket increased from 2.2 times in June to 4.9 times so far in August, with Kalshi accounting for 77.4% of the category's trading volume in the past seven days.

The popularity of the World Cup events continues to rise, and Gate predicts that the daily, weekly, and monthly trading volume will remain the highest in the Polymarket channel

According to the latest data from Polymarket Builders, on July 14, Gate's prediction market ranked first in daily trading volume among all channels on Polymarket. With the World Cup semi-finals underway, trading related to the events remains active, and Gate's prediction market maintains its leading advantage. In addition, Gate's prediction market not only ranks first in daily trading volume but also leads in weekly and monthly trading volumes across all channels on Polymarket, continuously demonstrating strong performance and showcasing the platform's user activity and trading enthusiasm in the sports event prediction market.Currently, Gate is launching the "Gate Prediction Market × World Cup Semi-Final Focus Event" campaign, with a total prize pool of 50,000 USDT. During the event, users can sign up and participate in the specified focus event predictions for the World Cup semi-finals on Gate Polymarket. Meeting the event requirements will qualify users for rewards, with no need to predict correctly, allowing them to share the 50,000 USDT prize pool. Additionally, Gate has launched the "World Cup Final Sprint Gift" campaign. During this period, users participating in predictions related to the quarter-finals, semi-finals, or finals in the World Cup section of Gate Polymarket have the chance to receive an 88 yuan JD.com gift card, with a total of 10,000 rewards to be distributed, accompanying users in witnessing the birth of the World Cup champion.As the first centralized trading platform to integrate with Polymarket, Gate has become an important entry point for users to participate in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the Alpha section on the homepage, and conveniently participate in various event predictions using USDT in their accounts. Users can also utilize the "Smart Money" feature to track the positions and market judgments of high-win-rate traders, gaining more reference for event predictions. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of the prediction market, providing users with a diversified experience from event judgment to trading participation.

Analyst: The nominal value of $2.14 billion in options will expire, with Bitcoin performing significantly better in both price and popularity compared to the last three months

According to data from Greeks.live, a total of 23,000 BTC options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.13, a maximum pain point of $76,000, and a nominal value of $1.74 billion. Additionally, 175,000 ETH options will also expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.94, a maximum pain point of $2,325, and a nominal value of $400 million.Greeks.live analyst Adam stated that this week's market fluctuations are small, with Bitcoin hovering around $78,000, and market sentiment gradually becoming calmer. The short-term RV has significantly decreased, combined with monthly settlements releasing nearly a quarter of the position margin, leading to a noticeable decline in the implied volatility of major expiration options this week. The major expiration IV of Bitcoin has fallen below 40%, while the major expiration IV of ETH has decreased even more, with short-term IV dropping below 50% and medium to long-term also falling below 60%. From the main options data, the Skew remains relatively stable, and the market's directional sentiment remains slightly bearish. This week, only 6% of options are expiring, with about 25% of positions at the end of the month and about 30% of positions at the end of June. Block trades are relatively inactive, all of which are signals of consolidation. In April of this year, Bitcoin performed significantly better in both price and popularity compared to the previous three months, but the altcoin market has seen limited recovery. Currently, the focus is mainly on Bitcoin, and trading altcoins will require further waiting.

Kalshi and Polymarket's trading volume reached $1.44 billion in September, as the prediction market attracts institutional funds and accelerates in popularity

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the prediction market continues to heat up, with Kalshi and Polymarket achieving a total trading volume of $1.44 billion in September, setting a historical record. Recently, both platforms announced the completion of a new round of financing: Polymarket raised $2 billion from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), with a valuation rising to $9 billion; Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation.This financing has created at least one new billionaire, with Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan becoming the youngest self-made billionaire. Data shows that in September, Kalshi's market share briefly rose to 60%, reversing the dominance previously held by Polymarket at the beginning of the year.There are significant differences in their technical architectures: Kalshi operates off-chain, with data only accessible via API; Polymarket operates entirely on-chain, with all markets and positions publicly queryable. Analysts believe that Kalshi's recent surge in trading volume is partly due to its partnership with Robinhood, which has allowed users to participate directly in Kalshi's sports prediction market trading through its interface, marking a significant step towards the integration of prediction markets into the mainstream financial ecosystem.
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