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first_img Korean brokerage warns that Samsung and SK Hynix have less than 10 days of memory inventory

KB Securities warned that the inventory of memory semiconductors at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has fallen to less than 10 days of supply, and the available supply next year will be significantly insufficient. The agency reported on Monday that investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure is expanding at an unprecedented pace, leading to a severe supply shortage in the memory chip market. A key factor is the transition to HBM4, which requires about three times the wafers of traditional DRAM, and limited wafer capacity will reduce the available capacity of traditional DRAM.KB Securities expects that next year, the demand for DRAM and NAND will exceed supply by more than 10 percentage points. Research director Kim Dong-won stated that artificial intelligence servers will consume HBM, server DDR5, and enterprise-grade solid-state drives, potentially leading to a historic shortage. Global hyperscale data center operators have raised their expectations for artificial intelligence infrastructure investment next year to $1.3 trillion, a 60% increase from the previous year. The agency anticipates that memory semiconductors will account for 57% of total investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure next year, up from 14% last year, with TrendForce estimating this ratio could reach as high as 68%. Samsung Electronics' stock price has dropped nearly 28% from its peak, while SK Hynix has fallen nearly 40%.

first_img SK Hynix accelerates the expansion of its 1c DRAM market share, becoming the main force by early next year

According to the Chosun Ilbo report on September 7, SK Hynix is accelerating the increase of the production share of 10-nanometer sixth-generation (1c) DRAM. Industry data shows that its 1c DRAM share rose from about 10% in the first quarter of this year to about 13% in the second quarter, and is expected to reach about 24% in the third quarter and about 34% in the fourth quarter; it may rise to about 35% in the first quarter of next year, surpassing 1b (about 33%) for the first time and becoming the main process. The share of 1b (10-nanometer fifth-generation) DRAM peaked at about 43% in the second quarter of this year and has since begun to decline.By the end of the second quarter, Samsung Electronics had a 1c share of about 16% and Micron about 19%, both higher than SK Hynix's approximately 13%. Reports indicate that SK Hynix is accelerating the transition in the second half of the year, and in the fourth quarter, it may exceed Samsung Electronics' approximately 31% with about 34%. SK Hynix stated in its second-quarter earnings call that the supply of DRAM using the 1c process will substantially begin from the second quarter, and in the second half of the year, with the ramp-up of HBM4 and increased shipments of 1c general DRAM, the bit growth rate will be higher than in the first half.Samsung Electronics will use 1c DRAM starting with HBM4, with a running speed of about 11.7Gbps; SK Hynix previously prioritized ensuring mass production stability with verified 1b DRAM and advanced MR-MUF packaging, and will use 1c DRAM for the first time as the core chip for HBM starting with the next generation HBM4E. Counterpoint Research and others estimate that this year, the market share of HBM4 under the combined metrics of Nvidia, Google, and AMD is approximately 50% for SK Hynix in the mid-range, 20% for Samsung Electronics in the later range, and 10% for Micron in the later range.
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