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Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Before the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin is likely to continue its fluctuations, with the lower edge of 80,000 USD possibly being tested first

Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $80,000 to $84,000 for the past two weeks. Huobi HTX's chief analyst Cloud believes that this is essentially a balance of two opposing forces: ETFs have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out, and long-term holders are only moderately cashing out. In the week leading up to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin is likely to continue waiting in this range. The CME has only priced in a 16% chance of a rate hike in October, while economists generally believe it is close to a 50-50 chance. This discrepancy in pricing and opinions will make funds hesitant to bet in advance.If a direction is chosen in advance, the possibility of a downward test is slightly higher: the funding rate remains high, and the options skew continues to lean towards puts, indicating that bulls have not yet cleared out, and the demand for downside protection is still increasing. However, there has been effective support formed multiple times below $80,000 in the past month, making a downward breakout more likely to be a false breakout.Confirmation signals for a breakout are divided into two groups: for an upward breakout, the daily close needs to be above $84,200, with a cumulative net inflow of over $500 million into ETFs for three consecutive days, and the funding rate not exceeding 15%; for a downward breakout, it must fall below $79,800, with a single-week ETF outflow exceeding $500 million, while exchange funds turn into net inflows. The true source of direction will come from the interest rate decision announced at midnight on October 29, Beijing time, and the nearly 89% pricing for a rate hike in December.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment products.

Analyst: Significant differentiation has appeared on the Bitcoin blockchain, with whales turning to hoarding coins while spot demand remains weak

On-chain data analyst XWIN cited CryptoQuant data indicating that Bitcoin's current on-chain data is showing a significant divergence between whale behavior and the spot market. Although large holders have begun to accumulate again, demand in the spot market remains weak, and the market is transitioning from "seller exhaustion" to a potential bottom. XWIN stated that on-chain data shows positive accumulation signals. Holders of 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins have significantly reversed their 60-day net accumulation from negative 62,600 to positive 5,230, indicating that major whales are shifting from a distribution model back to accumulation.At the same time, the USDT reserves on the Binance trading platform have surged from about 790 million USD to 1.76 billion USD, suggesting that potential buying power in the market is increasing. However, spot buying in the U.S. has not kept pace. The Coinbase premium index is currently around -0.1416%, and weekly trading platform flow has turned into a net inflow of 8,428 BTC. Additionally, the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) hovers around 0.9982, indicating that short-term holders are still experiencing slight losses near the breakeven point and are choosing to sell.Analysts believe that while the underlying structure is improving, stronger spot demand is still urgently needed to spark a sustainable rebound. They suggest that investors focus on three key signals in the future: the trend of the Coinbase premium index, changes in exchange net flow, and whether the STH-SOPR can successfully rise above the 1 mark.
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