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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the 30-day change rate of Bitcoin's realized market capitalization turned positive on August 24 after being negative for 87 consecutive days, and rose to +0.88% on September 6. The realized market capitalization reached $1.068 trillion, increasing by $9.36 billion over the past 30 days, indicating an improvement in the on-chain cost basis after a long-term contraction, and continued to rise during the period when Bitcoin's price fluctuated around $80,000.

According to on-chain analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), Bitcoin has just experienced the most intense deleveraging phase since 2023. The open interest on Binance has significantly dropped below the 180-day moving average, and the largest historical long and short liquidations during this cycle occurred during this period.Currently, the open interest on Binance remains at $9.6 billion, above the 180-day average of $8.3 billion, accounting for approximately 37% of the total open interest in Bitcoin, which is higher than the levels during the rebound in May—when this level helped BTC return to $82,000. Meanwhile, measured by the cumulative net buying volume over 365 days (the difference between spot buying and selling), the current buying pressure for Bitcoin has reached the strongest level since the last bear market. Analysts point out that although this adjustment has significantly impacted traders, there are signs of market recovery, providing support for a bullish rebound in Bitcoin; however, the excessively high leverage levels still need to be monitored, as they may trigger a new round of intense deleveraging.

Researcher Schulz_Research stated that China's storage advancement is no longer a story of a single company, but rather a division of labor among three companies: CXMT is responsible for DRAM wafers, YMTC is responsible for NAND and has added DRAM in its latest factory, and the foundry controlled by YMTC, XMC, is responsible for stacking products from both. This division corresponds to the rules set by Beijing since late December last year, which state that new factory approvals must show that at least half of the equipment is domestically sourced, with exemptions only granted when there are no domestic options available. YMTC's Wuhan Phase III is the first advanced storage project to pass this rule and is set to begin production later this year.CXMT operates three 300mm DRAM factories, each producing about 100,000 wafers per month; models indicate it will reach 350,000 wafers by the end of 2026, and if all announced projects are completed, the total will exceed 600,000 wafers. YMTC's first two factories in Wuhan have a combined capacity of 200,000 wafers, with Phase III expected to reach 50,000 wafers by 2027 and full production of 100,000 wafers, along with plans to build two more factories of similar scale. XMC has two 12-inch factories, each with about 30,000 wafers, and an HBM packaging line producing about 3,000 wafers per month. China supplies about 10% of the global DRAM bits, with YMTC accounting for 14% of NAND bit shipments in the second quarter, and China consumes about 30% of global storage.CXMT has begun mass production of DDR5 and LPDDR5 and plans to start mass production of HBM3 this year, having already sent samples to domestic AI hardware developers. XMC has spent two years building HBM packaging based on hybrid bonding and YMTC's stacking IP, and is still advancing TSV technology.

Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin is significantly decoupling from the U.S. stock market, with the last occurrence of such a degree of decoupling happening in 2015, which was the prelude to the Bitcoin bull market in 2017.In 2014, the stock market was still in a bull market, while BTC experienced a bear market unrelated to stock market trends. From 2015 to 2016, the stock market fluctuated weakly for two consecutive years, while BTC entered a bull market; then in 2017, when the stock market also turned bullish, BTC further surged. Willy Woo believes that the current market pattern is similar to that time: BTC liquidity continues to strengthen, while the stock market is beginning to show signs of weakness.

DeFi researcher Ignas posted on the X platform, stating that in the AI era, the way to find Meme coins seems to have fundamentally changed little. Taking Grok as an example, when asked to recommend worthwhile Meme coins, it typically only provides token codes based on historical data such as views, trading volume, and the number of posts on the X platform.Real Meme coin trading still requires human judgment on whether a project has the potential to "break out," including market sentiment, community atmosphere, narrative appeal, and whether KOLs suddenly start promoting it. Compared to asking AI once a day what to buy, being continuously online 24/7 to capture changes in market sentiment still has greater advantages.However, Ignas pointed out that AI is fundamentally changing liquidity provision (LP) strategies. AI agents can automatically filter liquidity pools and analyze factors such as trading volume, transaction fees, fee trends, liquidity depth, and suitable price ranges. Currently, related strategies are still being refined, but a methodology has already been formed that can be continuously optimized and generate compounding effects. If trading Meme coins and being "online 24/7" does not suit you, then leveraging AI to learn and execute LP strategies might be a more easily mastered skill.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit ratio of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator measures the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain its position in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by continuous profit realization from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit margin of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator is used to measure the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by short-term holders continuously realizing profits.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that as BTC returns to around $82,000, the open interest of Binance Bitcoin contracts has increased by nearly 8% in the past 24 hours, surpassing $10 billion, and reaching a new high in nearly 6 months.The open interest measured in BTC has also risen to 125,830 coins.

According to Darkfost monitoring, the activity of the OG group holding Bitcoin for over 5 years has significantly increased recently, with the 90-day moving average of their spent UTXOs rising to 1500 BTC, doubling from the levels in May. The consolidation period seems to have raised concerns among almost all types of investors, including the most experienced OG group. However, these transfers may not necessarily indicate selling; some could be due to reasons such as the Coldcard incident, transferring Bitcoin to safer storage methods.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin is approaching the threshold for a bullish market state. In the past 24 hours, the price has increased by 3.9%, and open contracts have risen by 11,200 BTC (+3.4%), indicating that this round of increase is accompanied by a rapid expansion of futures leverage, with new leverage being the main driving force rather than short covering.Bitcoin has directly touched the threshold of the bullish model but has not yet been officially confirmed. The key signal is that the daily closing price stands above the model's dynamic threshold. If the price can hold this level after the transition and the accumulated futures leverage does not experience severe liquidation, the signal will be more sustainable. The main risk is that a rapid unwinding of leverage could lead to a reversal of the upward trend.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys", the option "Alexander Zverev" in the sub-market "US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys" has experienced a drastic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 60.5% an hour ago to the current 88.5% (a fluctuation of 28%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSR Oscillator) 90-day reading quickly rose to the "strong stablecoin buying demand" zone, reaching 3.74 on August 21, close to the peak of about 4 expected in November 2024. Since then, the indicator has started to decline, while BTC is currently trading around $77,000.The rapid rebound of the stablecoin demand indicator coincided with a strong liquidity pulse that occurred earlier in the market. However, what is more concerning now is not the short-term spike itself, but whether this demand signal can be sustained. If the 90-day SSR Oscillator continues to decline and falls back below the "high" zone, the confirmation strength of this indicator regarding the sustained increase in stablecoin buying demand will weaken. Currently, this change appears more like a liquidity pulse rather than a formed persistent demand expansion cycle.The demand signals from the stablecoin side have indeed strengthened significantly recently, but the 90-day oscillation indicator has already started to cool down from its peak of 3.74. If it cannot maintain itself in the "high" zone, then whether this liquidity improvement can evolve into more lasting demand growth remains in question.

User Wordgrammer stated that the internet has collapsed due to social and video being 100% sandboxable, with consumer preferences leaning towards usage while intoxicated, in bed, on the toilet, or when 99% of their brain is occupied. They believe that the current AI discussion is similar to the misjudgment in 1995 that "everyone will have a website," as not everyone will create personal software or mobile applications.Wordgrammer indicated that everyone will use agents, but less than 1% will use coding agents, just as everyone has a social homepage but less than 1% have a personal website. Consumer-grade and enterprise agents must have a 0% failure rate foolproof sandbox, where accidental purchases, messaging, or information leaks cannot occur. Better models are insufficient to achieve this and require a rethinking of abstraction.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the 30-day average net flow of stablecoins turned positive for the first time on September 1 (+$13.85 million), ending a continuous net outflow of 113 days since May 11. However, this reading subsequently dropped to $11.66 million and $6.85 million over the next two days, a decrease of about 51%, indicating that positive momentum is weakening.Meanwhile, the stablecoin supply ratio has retreated from its peak on August 26, and three oscillation indicators remain above zero, suggesting a recovery in relative purchasing power but still below recent norms. Analysts state that the current signals are better interpreted as the end of the net outflow state rather than confirming sustained inflows. The net flow of stablecoins is no longer clearly negative, and the SSR (stablecoin supply ratio) has retreated from recent highs, but neither indicator has confirmed a continued expansion of liquidity.A comprehensive liquidity reversal requires sustained positive net flows from exchanges and an expansion of those flows, while the SSR oscillation indicators continue to decline into neutral territory. Currently, only the first phase transition from outflow to a more balanced state has been completed, with the main risk being a return to negative net flows.

According to CoinDesk analysis, Bitcoin is approaching the "golden cross" technical signal where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Historical data shows that since 2012, Bitcoin has experienced 12 golden crosses, with an average increase of 24.9% over three months for 9 of them, but only 3 have maintained for a full year without being broken by a death cross, with an average annual increase of 250%.What makes this golden cross different from previous ones is that the USDT market share is simultaneously approaching a "death cross" ------ its 50-day moving average is about to cross below the 200-day moving average. A decline in USDT market share usually indicates that funds are flowing out of stablecoins and into risk assets like Bitcoin, and this indicator has previously marked significant trend changes for Bitcoin. The combination of both further strengthens the bullish signal for this round of Bitcoin rebound.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that in August, Binance recorded over $1 billion in net inflows of stablecoins, with a slight recovery in liquidity. However, since the beginning of the year, Binance has seen a net outflow of approximately $5.1 billion in stablecoins, accounting for 71% of the total stablecoin flow across the network, while major exchanges have experienced a total outflow of over $16 billion in stablecoin reserves during the same period.He pointed out that the continuous outflow of stablecoins from exchanges indicates that liquidity is leaving the crypto market rather than idle funds waiting to be redeployed. The ongoing weak demand has led to a decline in stablecoin reserves on exchanges. Despite facing ongoing capital outflows, Bitcoin still achieved an increase of about 25% in August, reaching over $75,000. However, if demand does not continue to recover, BTC may enter another adjustment phase.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted that over the past 6 months, Bitcoin's correlation with the U.S. stock market has been lower than that of gold, small-cap stocks, emerging market assets, and U.S. Treasuries.He stated that Bitcoin's historical correlation with U.S. stocks has roughly maintained around 0.4, while gold and U.S. Treasuries have seen a significant increase in their linkage with U.S. stocks recently.Balchunas noted that although this time window is relatively short, it is sufficient to refute the claim that "Bitcoin is just another QQQ."

Rapha Zagury, CEO of Twenty One Capital and founder of Elektron Energy, stated during his speech at Bitcoin Asia 2026 that the Bitcoin network is experiencing its first-ever bear market in hashrate. The hashrate of the Bitcoin network was close to 1.3 ZH/s at the end of last year, but has since been slowly declining, with the duration of this decline from the historical peak now setting a record. Zagury believes that Bitcoin mining is not simply a "good business" or "bad business"; it largely depends on where the mining company stands on the cost curve. Mining companies with lower energy costs and higher machine efficiency can maintain higher profit margins, while those with high energy costs and low equipment efficiency may be forced to shut down.Currently, while the Bitcoin hashrate price has improved compared to before, it is still at a relatively low level when measured against historical standards. When the price of Bitcoin rises faster than the growth of the network's hashrate, mining is more likely to outperform BTC. For companies, he believes that the best risk-adjusted allocation is not simply choosing to "buy BTC" or "mine," but rather a combination of both; however, if only $1 can be allocated, he suggests prioritizing the purchase of BTC. Regarding energy issues, Zagury stated that energy consumption itself does not imply waste; energy is the foundation of economic development and human progress. He believes that one of the greatest characteristics of Bitcoin mining is its highly flexible load, as mining machines can quickly turn on and off based on energy supply, thus helping the grid absorb idle or surplus electricity and enhancing grid stability to some extent. Additionally, he believes that Bitcoin mining is generating "option value" that was not previously apparent, including aspects such as energy utilization, market share, proximity to the Bitcoin protocol, and infrastructure. With the growing demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC), the existing energy and data center infrastructure of mining companies may also gain additional application scenarios such as AI computing power. Currently, among large publicly listed mining companies, there are fewer and fewer that can continue large-scale Bitcoin mining, and the industry is at a critical stage where the energy revolution intersects with the Bitcoin revolution.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the demand for Bitcoin in the market has declined again. Although short-term holders are still taking profits, and selling pressure remains stable, apparent demand has turned negative again, indicating that demand has significantly weakened in the past few days.He believes that this change is also reflected in the price structure of Bitcoin, with the current trend tending to weaken. If demand does not recover in the short term, Bitcoin may face further downside risks.

According to Cointelegraph, the global bond bear market continues to ferment, with Japan's 10-year government bond yield rising to 3% on Tuesday, the first time since 1996; the 30-year government bond yield also broke through the historical high of 4.18%. The U.S. 10-year government bond yield simultaneously rose to a multi-year high of 4.78%, and global long-term sovereign bond yields are at their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.In this context, Bitcoin remains in a sideways consolidation, maintaining around $78,000, slightly retreating from an earlier high of nearly $79,000. There is a dense resistance area between the current spot price and $86,000, which limits Bitcoin's upward momentum. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic in the short term, with the $76,000 to $82,000 range seen as a key battleground in the coming weeks.This round of selling occurred after U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen announced an increase in the upper limit of government bond repurchase transactions to $4 billion starting in September, with some commentators likening it to a form of yield curve control. Arthur Hayes has long argued that the Federal Reserve will eventually activate the FIMA repo facility, a mechanism that will create new dollar liquidity, which is also why he recommends allocating Bitcoin, gold, and cryptocurrencies; Yellen hinted at the future use of this tool as early as August.