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According to CNBC, Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since February on Wednesday, hitting a low of $65,385, a decrease of 2.3%. Funds are flowing from the crypto market to other asset classes. QCP stated that the fundamental issue is liquidity rotation. The stock market continues to outperform, attracting the attention of both crypto-native investors and traditional asset managers to a stronger stock narrative, and investors may be shifting funds from Bitcoin to private markets or IPO projects like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.BTIG technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky believes that Bitcoin needs to hold around $65,000, which is the last support before testing the year-to-date low of $60,000. QCP expects initial support in the range of $63,000 to $64,000, and if it breaks below, attention will turn to $62,000, followed by the psychological level of $60,000, with the next major support level at $58,000.

According to Jinshi, Wall Street analysts have begun to adopt a skeptical attitude after two months of continuous gains in the stock market, and researchers are downgrading the ratings of S&P 500 constituent companies. Data from Jefferies shows that the proportion of constituent stocks receiving a "buy" rating is nearly the same as it was four years ago, far below the peak levels during the internet bubble. Jefferies Senior Vice President Andrew Greenberg stated that the sell-side has not yet shown any signs of buying.

According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Strategy recently made a small-scale sale of Bitcoin after the performance conference call in May, which the market interpreted as testing market reactions and the flexibility of capital allocation strategies.The analyst pointed out that although Strategy remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin, the success and expansion of the STRC preferred stock financing tool may take precedence in the overall financial arrangements. This move breaks the company's market image of "buying only, not selling" that has lasted for nearly six years. Considering Strategy's strong market influence on Bitcoin demand, this shift is quietly rewriting market expectations.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin fell to a nearly two-month low on Tuesday, as the divergence between cryptocurrencies and traditional stock markets continued to deepen. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $70,023 on Coinbase, the lowest level since April 7, with a daily decline of over 4% and a weekly decline of 8%, down 44% from the October peak of $126,000.Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index set a new historical high of over 7,600 points on Monday, and the Nasdaq index peaked above 27,000 points. Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue, stated that Bitcoin is currently the only major asset in a downtrend, and this divergence is worth noting, indicating that Bitcoin resembles a high-beta risk asset linked to macro sentiment rather than an independent hedging tool.Santiment noted that the gap between traditional stocks and cryptocurrencies has become hard to ignore, leading investors to increasingly prefer stocks over Bitcoin and altcoins, with capital often rotating from crypto to the stock market. However, Santiment pointed out that this pattern will not last forever; when mainstream influencers begin discussing the dominance of stocks, it usually indicates that market sentiment is overly biased towards stocks, and market trends often move contrary to the expectations of most traders.

SpaceX disclosed in its latest S-1 filing that it holds approximately 18,712 bitcoins, with a current market value of about $1.4 billion, significantly higher than previous market expectations, with a cost of about $661 million. This bitcoin holding has become an important component of SpaceX's balance sheet, accounting for about 1.8% of total assets, making it one of the major corporate bitcoin holders, second only to a few institutions.The more critical issue lies in the financial volatility risk brought about by accounting treatment. Analysts say that measuring bitcoin at fair value will cause its price fluctuations to be directly reflected in the financial reports each quarter, potentially leading to significant profit volatility unrelated to core business (rocket launches, satellite business), creating significant "accounting noise." Market participants believe that this mechanism may make it more difficult for investors to assess SpaceX's true operational performance, with the bitcoin holding potentially evolving from a "strategic reserve asset" to a key variable affecting the stability of financial reports.

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a recent report that the Bitcoin market has entered a significant volatility compression phase. The realized volatility over the past week (30-day moving average) has dropped from about 39 in early March this year to the current level of around 17, with a quarterly decline of over 56%, approaching historical low levels. Currently, the BTC price remains around $73,500, still below the approximately $79,500 200-day moving average. Historical experience shows that extremely low volatility often indicates that the market is accumulating energy, typically followed by a significant directional trend. However, volatility compression itself does not provide directional signals; it merely indicates that the market is about to make a new trend choice.Meanwhile, the Delta indicator, which reflects changes in market premiums (the difference between market capitalization growth rate and realized market capitalization growth rate), has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, further dropping to about -0.0013 in May. This indicator suggests that the growth rate of Bitcoin's market capitalization continues to lag behind the growth rate of realized market capitalization, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite and valuation premium.The current market exhibits a combination of "low volatility + cooling premiums," which is not a typical overheated bull market structure but rather resembles a consolidation phase after emotional cooling. If BTC subsequently returns above the 200-day moving average, and Delta rebounds to near zero, it will indicate that the market has re-entered a risk appetite expansion cycle; conversely, if volatility releases downward and Delta continues to deteriorate, it may enter a deeper risk-averse phase.In summary, Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market direction remains neutral, but the degree of compression is at a high level, and the probability of significant directional volatility in the future is continuously increasing.

Analyst Ali tweeted that the TD Sequential buy signal has appeared on the 12-hour chart for Bitcoin, which may rebound to $75,000.

Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, posted on platform X, stating, "Bitcoin is at a critical price level, and if it cannot hold, it will drop below $65,000." However, he believes that a new low will not occur. In that case, Bitcoin would fall below $61,000, where the 200-day moving average is located. Further declines would be meaningless, as this would not yield good results in any market cycle. However, this structure is different from the decline in February. The reason is that the resistance level in February failed to convert into a support level.Currently, the $71,000 area remains a key support level. Poppe believes that this support must hold to prevent further pullbacks. If it can hold, then the $61,000-$65,000 range will be an excellent buying opportunity for Bitcoin in the coming years. If this support holds, then the second phase target is to break through $76,600. If this price level is breached, a new high is imminent, and a strong altcoin summer rally is likely to be seen.

According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of funds for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.84 billion, setting the longest consecutive decline record since the product's launch in 2024, and surpassing the consecutive outflow record from February 8, 2025. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT has become a major source of outflows.Analysis indicates that this round of capital outflow reflects a significant cooling of institutional demand for Bitcoin ETF exposure, while the market shows a trend of differentiation: ETFs related to Hyperliquid and some XRP spot ETFs still recorded inflows, while Ethereum spot ETFs have faced outflows for 13 consecutive days, with a total outflow of approximately $694 million, indicating that capital in crypto asset ETFs is being reallocated.

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin's volatility and correlation are increasingly approaching gold levels. This trend is significantly underestimated in the current market adjustment and may be a positive signal amid recent market turbulence.According to the 60-day historical volatility comparison data between IBIT and the Gold ETF (GLD) since its launch, it can be seen that Bitcoin's volatility structure is gradually aligning with gold, indicating that its asset characteristics may be changing.Eric Balchunas added that despite the highly volatile market environment, the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) has continued to outperform U.S. stocks since the escalation of the Iran conflict, achieving more than double the excess returns compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since the approval of the BlackRock ETF.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has continued to be under pressure after failing to break through $83,000, dropping to its lowest level since early April, currently reported at $73,526, with a 24-hour increase of only 0.07%. This pullback extends the downward trend of the past three weeks and forms a series of lower lows since October of last year, seen as a potential bear market signal.Ethereum has also weakened, briefly dropping to $1,965 before slightly rebounding above $2,000. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks continue to outperform the crypto market, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both rising 0.15%, approaching historical highs.

According to Jinshi News, T. Rowe Price Chief U.S. Economist Blerina Uruci stated that the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of the Federal Reserve further tightening its policies.She pointed out that since early May, the duration of the Iran conflict has exceeded expectations, oil prices have risen, and U.S. economic growth has remained resilient. Uruci believes that the probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months is 45%, the probability of a rate hike by the end of the year or early 2027 is 35%, and the probability of a rate cut is 20%.

According to information from a third-party data platform, Bitcoin's Ahr999 has once again fallen below 0.45 after a month, reporting at 0.4322. As a result, this indicator has returned to the "bottom-buying range." This indicator was created by ahr999 and aims to assist Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. The indicator implies the yield of short-term Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging and the deviation of Bitcoin's price from its expected valuation.Historically, the Ahr999 index for Bitcoin has been below the bottom line (0.45) for 572 days. The dollar-cost averaging range is 0.45-1.2, representing a relatively reasonable range for Bitcoin prices, suitable for adhering to a regular investment strategy.

The crypto analysis platform Swissblock stated on platform X that Bitcoin has chosen to revert to a risk-averse mode. This is the defensive shift it had previously warned about. As the risk index accelerates into high-risk territory, the dominance of USDT has risen again, indicating that funds are rotating back to a protective mode. The observed sequence is: risk expansion, Bitcoin losing structural strength, and a rebound in USDT dominance. In this environment, the market prioritizes survival over upside potential.

Despite reports that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have reached a 60-day ceasefire and a draft memorandum for discussions on the nuclear program, the cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin falling below $73,000, down about 2.7% in 24 hours. The U.S. stock and bond markets were boosted, with the Nasdaq rising 0.6%, while WTI crude oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel.On a macro level, the first inflation report under the new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh shows that the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest level in nearly three years, up from 2.8% in February. Olu Sonola, the U.S. economy director at Fitch Ratings, stated that inflationary pressures may persist in the coming months, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to ignore supply shocks that drive potential inflation.Market analysis indicates that in the short term, macroeconomic favorable factors have significantly boosted the stock market and oil prices, but the cryptocurrency market lacks similar direct stimuli, and Bitcoin and other digital assets still face selling pressure.

According to analyst Yu Jin, after the launch of the spot ETF, the price trends of BTC and ETH are basically consistent with the fund flows of the ETF: inflows correspond to price increases, and outflows correspond to price decreases.The data provided states that from October last year to now, the BTC ETF size has decreased from $169.5 billion to $96.4 billion, a reduction of 43%. During the same period, the price of BTC fell from $125,000 to $73,000, a decline of 41%; the ETH ETF size decreased from $32 billion to $11.6 billion, a reduction of 63%, while the price of ETH dropped from $4,800 to $2,000, a decline of 59%. Recently, the ETF has continued to experience net outflows, corresponding to a price decline that has lasted for about half a month.

The cryptocurrency market research organization Santiment stated that ETH has fallen below $2000 for the first time since March 29. Typically, after a significant price drop, the market exhibits two typical sentiments: one is retail investors falling into FUD due to weak performance, and the other is FOMO sentiment viewing the drop as a "discount buying opportunity." Santiment pointed out that the market is currently experiencing the latter. As ETH breaks below a key psychological support level, a large number of retail investors are starting to "buy the dip."They believe this usually indicates that the price of ETH may still have further room to decline, as retail sentiment is currently too optimistic, and historically, the general market tends to make incorrect judgments. Santiment stated that a truly better buying opportunity usually occurs after market FOMO cools down and sentiment shifts to panic.

The cryptocurrency market research firm Santiment stated that ETH has fallen below $2000 for the first time since March 29. Typically, after a significant price drop, the market exhibits two typical sentiments: one is retail investors falling into FUD due to weak performance, and the other is the FOMO sentiment that views the drop as a "discount buying opportunity."Santiment pointed out that the latter is currently emerging in the market. As ETH breaks below a key psychological support level, a large number of retail investors are starting to "buy the dip." It believes that this usually indicates that the price of ETH may still have further room to decline, as retail sentiment is currently too optimistic, and historically, the general market tends to make incorrect judgments. Santiment stated that the truly better buying opportunities usually arise after market FOMO cools down and sentiment shifts to panic.

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the inflow of BTC to trading platforms and the outflow of stablecoins from trading platforms simultaneously release a "risk aversion" signal, indicating that selling pressure in the market is increasing. Data shows that the net inflow of BTC to trading platforms over the past 30 days has shifted from an extreme net outflow of 300,000 BTC at the end of March to an inflow of 103,000 BTC, meaning more BTC is being reintroduced to trading platforms in preparation for sale. During the same period, the price of BTC dropped from $80,000 to $73,700.Meanwhile, stablecoins are flowing out of centralized trading platforms at a record pace. The average net flow of stablecoins over the past 30 days has shifted from an inflow of $164 million per day at the end of April to an outflow of $153 million per day. This indicates that the liquidity available for purchasing BTC in the market is decreasing. Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that when BTC flows into exchanges while stablecoins simultaneously flow out of trading platforms, it creates an unfavorable structure of "increased supply and decreased demand," which is a typical risk aversion market condition.He believes that if the net inflow of BTC continues to exceed +100,000 BTC, the market may face a deeper correction; while stable signals would include BTC turning back to a net outflow or stablecoins flowing back into trading platforms.