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first_img VanEck Research Director: Bitcoin Can Perform Well Under Democratic Governance

Matthew Sigel, the Head of Digital Asset Research at the asset management company VanEck, stated on CNBC that Bitcoin does not need a Republican president to perform well, and former President Biden is not anti-Bitcoin. Sigel pointed out that despite Republicans repeatedly criticizing Democrats for being anti-cryptocurrency, and the regulatory agencies under the Biden administration suing digital asset companies, Bitcoin can still develop healthily under Democratic governance.Sigel also discussed the delay in the legislation of the Clarity Act, which aims to establish a classification framework for digital assets and clarify the regulatory jurisdiction over securities, commodities, or payment stablecoins. Some Republican senators accused Democrats of delaying the legislation, while Coinbase's Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad believes that the opposition mainly comes from older Democrats, and the younger generation better understands technological changes, making cryptocurrency potentially the most bipartisan issue in Washington.Recently, Bitcoin has shown strong price performance, rising nearly 24% in the past seven days, reaching as high as $81,160, and currently retreating to about $78,438. Previously, the Trump administration promoted the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve and issued several executive orders supporting cryptocurrency.

Bitget Research Institute: If Bitcoin effectively breaks through the resistance level of 83,000, it may open up upward space to 90,000

Bitget Research Institute Chief Analyst Ryan Lee stated that driven by multiple favorable factors such as the continuous net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF for five days, large-scale short liquidations, the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases leading to a drop in yields and a weakening dollar, as well as signals from the Trump administration indicating a pro-crypto regulatory stance, Bitcoin has broken through the $80,000 mark, reaching a new high in recent months, with market sentiment rapidly shifting from "fear" to "greed."He pointed out that BTC is expected to stabilize above $78,000 in the short term and oscillate around that area, with key support levels in the $74,000--$76,000 range and primary resistance at $83,000. If it breaks through effectively, it may further challenge the $85,000--$90,000 levels.Regarding Ethereum, benefiting from the market's increased risk appetite driven by BTC, simultaneous ETF fund inflows, and a rebound in DeFi activity, Ryan noted that ETH's short-term average price could reach $2,600--$2,800. If it breaks through the $2,650--$2,700 resistance level, it may further push towards the $3,000 mark.At the same time, Ryan also reminded investors that although ETF fund inflows are strong and short-term momentum is sufficient, there are still profit-taking pressures in the market, as well as macro policy uncertainties such as the Jackson Hole meeting and the September interest rate meeting. Traders should be prepared for fluctuations of 10--20% and closely monitor daily ETF flow data and key support levels.

Federal Reserve Research: Cryptocurrency investors are more driven by belief, and information about Bitcoin's rise can stimulate more buying

According to Cointelegraph, the latest research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland shows that there are significant differences between cryptocurrency investors and traditional asset investors. Their views on the future returns and risks of digital assets diverge greatly, and the information about Bitcoin's historical price increases may further encourage investors to increase their allocation willingness and actually buy crypto assets.The research paper "Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance" is based on multiple rounds of household survey data in the United States, with each round covering up to approximately 25,000 households.Researchers found that compared to demographic characteristics such as age, income, and gender, investors' expectations for future returns from cryptocurrencies better explain who chooses to hold crypto assets. The study shows that cryptocurrency holders expect an average return of about 22% over the next year, significantly higher than the approximately 7% expectation of non-holders.At the same time, holders generally believe that the risks of crypto assets are lower than the judgments of non-holders. Researchers found that for every 1 percentage point increase in an individual's expected return from cryptocurrencies, the probability of holding crypto assets increases by about 0.8 percentage points. The explanatory power of return expectations and risk perceptions for cryptocurrency holding behavior even exceeds that of traditional factors such as age, income, and wealth.This characteristic contrasts with traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and gold. For traditional investment types, investors' economic backgrounds usually better explain differences in asset allocation, while the crypto market relies more on investors' subjective judgments about future price performance.In addition, the research team discovered through a randomized information experiment that simply providing investors with information about Bitcoin's price increase over the past 12 months significantly boosts their willingness to allocate to crypto assets. Data shows that respondents who saw historical performance information about Bitcoin had an approximately 2 percentage point increase in the proportion planning to allocate to crypto assets, representing about a 47% increase compared to the control group's 4.3% allocation willingness; the probability of actually purchasing crypto assets also increased by about 2.5 percentage points.The study suggests that this mechanism may explain the cyclical boom and bust phenomenon in the crypto market: price increases attract more investors, and new funds further drive up prices, thus forming a cycle of "price increase --- enhanced optimistic expectations --- more buying."
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