BTC $78,400.44 -0.63%
ETH $2,446.94 -0.70%
BNB $695.28 -0.79%
XRP $1.41 -5.09%
SOL $96.04 -3.61%
TRX $0.3366 -1.61%
DOGE $0.0858 -4.84%
ADA $0.2085 -4.71%
BCH $263.93 -2.30%
LINK $11.27 -2.60%
HYPE $81.72 +0.01%
AAVE $125.53 -3.00%
SUI $0.7528 -6.20%
XLM $0.1830 -4.81%
ZEC $784.08 -6.61%
BTC $78,400.44 -0.63%
ETH $2,446.94 -0.70%
BNB $695.28 -0.79%
XRP $1.41 -5.09%
SOL $96.04 -3.61%
TRX $0.3366 -1.61%
DOGE $0.0858 -4.84%
ADA $0.2085 -4.71%
BCH $263.93 -2.30%
LINK $11.27 -2.60%
HYPE $81.72 +0.01%
AAVE $125.53 -3.00%
SUI $0.7528 -6.20%
XLM $0.1830 -4.81%
ZEC $784.08 -6.61%

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first_img Bitcoin's volatility has narrowed to historic lows, and traders are turning to AI and prediction markets

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has recently shown unusually calm performance, achieving an annualized volatility of about 42% on the 30th, narrowing the gap with the S&P 500's 18% to the narrowest level on record. After narratives related to Trump and corporate treasury buying, the market has entered a prolonged compression range. Edmond Goh, Global Trading Head at B2C2, stated that retail funds are shifting towards AI stocks, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets; TradFi high-frequency trading and risk models are improving efficiency, with open interest nearing historical lows, further suppressing volatility.Shiliang Tang, Partner at Monarq Asset Management, mentioned that Bitcoin is in a price stalemate, with upward pressure from corporate treasury sell-offs (such as Strategy, MARA) and limited downward movement due to speculative leverage clearing and net accumulation in long-term wallets. Strategy has sold about 7,000 BTC by 2026. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that institutional ETFs and DAT are driving market maturity, while clarity in U.S. regulation (CLARITY Act) is still pending, and low volatility has led to a decrease in trading volume.Greg Cipolaro from NYDIG stated that short-term traders are chasing 5x or 10x returns, with target options expanding to Nvidia, gold, perpetual stock contracts, 0DTE options, or sports event contracts. Retail in South Korea is shifting from crypto to domestic AI-related stocks, with Upbit and Bithumb's trading volume significantly dropping year-on-year. Trading in traditional asset perpetuals on crypto platforms and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has seen a significant increase.

Data: HYPE arbitrage space narrows, funding rates decline as whales withdraw 11 million hedge positions

According to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitoring, the whale starting with 0xf17 began synchronously selling HYPE spot today and buying to close an equivalent amount of perpetual short positions, planning to continue exiting the carry trade positions. This address previously held HYPE spot and contract short positions at a nearly 1:1 ratio, earning positive funding rates by hedging against price fluctuations. Based on a pre-reduction position of approximately 146,800 units, both legs have now been reduced to about 107,900 units, each decreasing by nearly 39,000 units, a reduction of about 26.5%.Currently, two sets of TWAP orders still in execution plan to handle a total of 90,000 HYPE: approximately 33,200 units have been sold on the spot side, with a transaction amount of about 1.8 million USD; approximately 33,100 units have been closed on the contract side, with a transaction amount of about 1.795 million USD. Including previously completed orders, the current round of contract short positions has cumulatively decreased by about 39,000 units, with the current nominal value of spot and short positions each around 5.87 million USD, and the total scale of both legs approximately 11.74 million USD, reduced by about 4.24 million USD compared to before the reduction.As the whale withdraws, the HYPE carry trade yield has also fallen from its high. According to daily statistics: the cumulative funding rate for HYPE dropped from +0.0279% on August 1 to +0.02227% on August 3, a decrease of about 20.2%; in the last 4 hours: the cumulative funding rate also decreased by 19.1% compared to the previous 4 hours. Based on the current short position size, its daily gross funding income has fallen from about 1,638 USD to 1,308 USD. Weekly statistics: from July 28 to August 3, the cumulative rate was about +0.17803%, down 16.9% from the high week of +0.21425% from July 14 to 20. The HYPE funding rate is currently reported at +0.0013%, with an expected annualized yield of about 10.9%.
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