bab

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs equity strategists stated in a report that as tensions in the Middle East escalate, global stock markets face the possibility of a pullback in the short term, but the likelihood of a full-blown bear market remains low. The strategists pointed out that current high valuations make the market more susceptible to pullback shocks, but if a correction occurs, it may also provide buying opportunities. Goldman Sachs recommends broad geographic, factor, and sector diversification to enhance risk-adjusted returns.

As Bitcoin has plunged over 50% from its peak in October 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs have still recorded about $1.5 billion in net inflows over the past five trading days, with nearly all major issuers seeing an influx of funds. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF expert Eric Balchunas exclaimed, "Even I am impressed," attributing this wave of buying to older "baby boomer" investors (born between 1946 and 1964), joking that they are "stepping in to save the market again."Analysts point out that the role of institutional investors is also significant. Data shows that among the top 25 Bitcoin ETF holders, 17 have continued to increase their positions since last October. Currently, the total holdings of Bitcoin ETFs exceed $107 billion, with institutions controlling about 12% of the total supply across the network. Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute, stated, "ETF investors are clearly not fleeing in panic."

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 14.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 85.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 37.1%.

According to Jinshi, the currency market currently expects a 40% probability of the European Central Bank raising interest rates before the end of the year, up from 25% earlier in the day.

According to Coinbase Markets, Coinbase will suspend trading of 25 perpetual contracts on the Coinbase Advanced and Coinbase International Exchange platforms around 13:00 UTC on March 16, including MET-PERP, REZ-PERP, BABY-PERP, SUPER-PERP, SUSHI-PERP, GMX-PERP, ERA-PERP, XAN-PERP, VINE-PERP, T-PERP, YB-PERP, WCT-PERP, HOME-PERP, NOT-PERP, MINA-PERP, CATI-PERP, DOGS-PERP, COW-PERP, GRT-PERP, DRIFT-PERP, COOKIE-PERP, ARKM-PERP, B3-PERP, SXT-PERP, and BB-PERP.The announcement states that at the time of suspension, all remaining open positions will be automatically settled. The final settlement price will be calculated based on the average index price over the 60 minutes prior to the trading suspension, and the funding rate for the last funding rate period will be set to zero.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 2.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.5%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 16.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 83.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 40.3%.

The probability of Opinion on Polymarket issuing tokens on March 5 has risen to 95.5%. One day after the launch of OPN, the probability of the FDV exceeding $250 million is currently reported at 94%, and the probability of exceeding $500 million is currently reported at 67%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 93.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.4%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 22.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 76.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 1.2%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 43.9%.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of the market for "Khamenei will step down as Iran's Supreme Leader before March 31" has sharply risen to 93% today, an increase of 85 percentage points from before, with a total market trading volume of $30.43 million.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 96%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 17.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.6%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 43%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 98%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 15.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, traders have reduced their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in June at 50%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 98%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 15.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 42.7%.

The trading volume on Polymarket for "Which cryptocurrency company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?" has reached $2.39 million. Currently, Meteora has a probability of 33%, while pumpfun and MEXC have probabilities of 13%, and Axiom and WLFI have 8% and 7%, respectively.In addition, Wintermute, Binance, Jupiter, Coinbase, and Dexscreener are also on the list.Note: Previously, it was reported that ZachXBT will release a major investigative report on a highly profitable company in the crypto industry on February 26.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 96%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 4%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 17.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.6%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 46.8%.

According to Jinshi reports, before the data was released, based on CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points by March was 4.1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.9%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut was 16.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 83%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut was 0.5%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut was 44%.

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency economist Timothy Peterson's latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin still has structural upside potential during the current bear market correction: 50% of the months in the past 24 months recorded positive returns, suggesting a higher probability of a positive return turning point in any 24-month period.Based on this, Peterson estimates that the probability of Bitcoin being above the current level in the next 10 months is 88%. He emphasizes that this statistical model shows the market may be approaching a turning point rather than continuing to decline.The current Bitcoin price is approximately $68,173, down nearly 25% from the year's high, erasing most of the gains after the 2024-2025 U.S. elections; the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to "Extreme Fear" at 9 points, and social media interest in Bitcoin predictions has dried up, with sentiment trending neutral.

According to Forbes, the probability of the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill (Clarity Act) passing recently rose to 90%, before falling back to around 70%. It may become a key variable for the next phase of the Bitcoin market. Many believe that this bill could be a "major trigger" for a Bitcoin rebound, similar to how the previous "Genius Bill" boosted market sentiment for stablecoins.Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Action Fund, stated that once the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill is signed, "the floodgates will open," and trillions of dollars in capital may wait to enter the market after the compliance framework is established. The market generally believes that if the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill makes substantial progress, it will become an important catalyst for a new wave of capital inflow into the cryptocurrency market.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000 by 2026 is as high as 73%, while the probability of it rising to $100,000 is only 38%.