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According to analyst @alicharts, the current Ethereum MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) has dropped to 0.78. Historically, when the MVRV ratio falls below 0.8, ETH is usually close to a long-term bottom. However, the current market is still in a significant distribution phase.@alicharts indicates that if the selling pressure continues, potential support levels are: $1800, $1584, $1238, and $1089.

According to The Wall Street Journal, crypto venture capital firm Paradigm is seeking to raise up to $1.5 billion for its next fund, with investment scope expanding from crypto to "frontier technologies" such as AI and robotics, while still continuing to invest in the crypto space.

According to Gate market data, the Dow Jones Index closed down 521.28 points on February 27 (Friday), a decrease of 1.05%, at 48,977.92 points; the S&P 500 Index closed down 29.98 points, a decrease of 0.43%, at 6,878.88 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 210.17 points, a decrease of 0.92%, at 22,668.21 points.

According to The Block, on-chain derivatives platform Derive's analysis shows that Bitcoin options traders are building positions, betting that the market is bottoming out and is expected to rebound to $90,000. Derive's research director Sean Dawson pointed out that the market is showing signs of stability after several weeks of uncertainty.Bitcoin volatility has fallen back to the 50% range, which is typically associated with consolidation rather than panic selling. The options sentiment indicator, the 25-delta skew, has significantly rebounded from -15% in late February to around -7%, indicating that traders' defensive sentiment is weakening. Options flow shows that in contracts expiring on March 27, a large accumulation of call options at strike prices of $80,000 and $90,000 suggests that traders expect prices to rise to the $85,000 to $95,000 range. However, put options are still concentrated at $60,000 and $55,000, indicating that the market is maintaining necessary downside protection while being bullish.Bybit analysts noted that although the $70,000 level still poses resistance, the clarification of macro policies could restore market confidence and give rise to a strong bullish narrative.

Renowned analyst Willy Woo stated, "This round of investor-led bearish sell-off seems to be nearing its end, which brings some breathing room for prices and may lead to about a month of sideways consolidation, or even a rebound to the mid-$70,000 range, but this level is likely to face resistance. The reason is that the broader market environment remains clearly bearish, with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating.I have never seen Bitcoin sustain an upward trend when both spot and futures liquidity are weakening. If a relatively rational judgment is to be made, I believe the fourth quarter may be a better time window for the end of this bear market trend, while true bullish momentum may return in the first or second quarter of 2027. Around $45,000 is a typical bear market bottom range.From 2009 to 2026, Bitcoin has always been in a global macro long-term bull market environment. If a structural break occurs in the global macro environment, then $30,000 will become the next support level, while $16,000 will be the last line of defense to maintain Bitcoin's long-term bull market trend."

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Hougan dismissed various conspiracy theories circulating in the market, including attributing the decline to Binance, Wintermute, offshore macro hedge funds, paper Bitcoin, and the recent claims about Jane Street. He pointed out that the reasons for investor sell-offs include the four-year cycle pattern, concerns about quantum computing, and the shift of funds towards AI startups.He believes that most of the sell-off is nearing its end, and the market is in the process of bottoming out, with Bitcoin set to reach new all-time highs in the future. Hougan described the current situation as a "classic cryptocurrency winter" and believes that it will be followed by a "classic cryptocurrency spring."

Binance Research posted on social media that the leverage ratio of Bitcoin has surged to its highest level since November last year, as the speed of price decline has outpaced the process of active deleveraging.This passive increase in leverage indicates that the market is under peak pressure, and as the deleveraging process slows down and liquidity gradually concentrates, this may signal that a short-term bottom is approaching.

According to data from Greeks.live, 116,000 BTC options will expire this Friday, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.76, a maximum pain point of $75,000, and a nominal value of $7.9 billion. 206,000 ETH options will also expire this Friday, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.77, a maximum pain point of $2,200, and a nominal value of $980 million.Greeks.live analyst Adam stated that the current cryptocurrency market remains sluggish, with the entire February trend weakly oscillating above $60,000. Tomorrow, options representing 20% of the total open interest will expire, totaling nearly $9 billion, with Bitcoin's open interest reaching a peak in recent years. Thanks to a rebound in the past two days, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased this week, with BTC's main expiry IV at 47% and ETH's main expiry IV at 65%. The downward price trend has eased somewhat, but market confidence is still lacking.In terms of trading, large bullish options dominate the market, with a significant amount of medium to long-term bullish trades following yesterday's rebound. From the main options data, the Skew has also rebounded comprehensively, indicating a bottom-fishing force in the market. Adam added that the market is still in a bear phase, with no new funds entering the cryptocurrency space and no obvious hotspots, while pessimistic sentiments are prevalent on social media, suggesting that bottom panic may not have arrived yet.

According to the latest weekly report from Binance Research, the U.S. Supreme Court's tariff ruling initially increased uncertainty, but quantitative analysis suggests that the direct impact may be quite limited, and the market may have exaggerated the downside risks of inflation and economic fundamentals.Concerns about AI disrupting software may be overstated. Once software stocks form a durable bottom, the mechanical correlation between tech stocks and Bitcoin will fade. This week's Nvidia earnings report and updates on the Anthropic corporate partnership may be early signals in this direction.Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing the longest and most significant divergence from global M2 money supply in history, stemming from three major structural distortions: a weak dollar mechanically inflates the nominal value of M2 through exchange rate conversion; the approval of spot ETFs has led institutions to classify Bitcoin alongside software stocks as part of the same high-volatility tech factor; and high real interest rates have made money market funds a competitive alternative to risk assets.The convergence of this divergence requires three conditions to be met: stabilization of tech stocks, a decline in real interest rates, and stability of the dollar, which may be achieved between the second half of 2026 and early 2027.Multiple technical indicators point to the market being close to a structural bottom: the realized profit-loss ratio has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2023, leverage has risen to November highs, and defensive positions in options have reached the most extreme levels since the FTX collapse.Fourth-quarter 13F holdings data shows that price-sensitive capital (investment advisors, banks, hedge funds) has net sold about 34,000 BTC, while long-term institutional capital (governments, holding companies, private equity) continues to accumulate.

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi recently engaged in a public debate on social media with former co-founder Alexander Pack (now co-founder of Hack VC).Haseeb posted a reflection on his experience building the venture capital firm, stating that Dragonfly's early brand and system were not yet established, and that development and scaling only began after his arrival. In response, Alexander Pack countered that Dragonfly had already been co-founded by him and Feng Bo for over a year before Haseeb joined, and had committed to leading investments in projects such as Bybit, Amber Group, and Crusoe, with the relevant fund announcements made prior to Haseeb's employment.Haseeb then responded, claiming that some of the other party's statements were inconsistent with the facts, and clarified the specific roles and decision-making processes regarding project investments, leading to an ongoing debate between the two about the company's founding phase and investment contributions.

According to The Block, the Indiana state legislature has advanced a bill that provides cryptocurrency investment options for key public retirement and savings plans, and protects individuals' access to digital assets. The bill is currently awaiting final approval from the governor.The HB 1042 bill was approved by both chambers after the House agreed to the Senate amendments on Wednesday. With the approval from both chambers, HB 1042 is now awaiting the signature of Indiana Governor Mike Braun. If signed, the provisions of the bill will take effect on July 1, 2026.

According to market news, Glassnode data shows that the hash ribbon indicator is close to signaling the end of a three-month miner capitulation period, which is one of the longest miner capitulation periods in history. When the 30-day moving average of hash rate rises above the 60-day moving average, it will trigger a recovery signal, indicating that miners are coming back online and network pressure is easing.Since the first reversal of this indicator last November, Bitcoin has fallen from around $90,000 to a low of $60,000 in early February, and is currently rebounding to around $65,000. The hash ribbon indicator is based on the comparison of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of hash rate. Miner capitulation occurs when mining revenue falls below operational costs, leading inefficient miners to shut down and sell off their Bitcoin reserves, resulting in a decrease in hash rate and increased market selling pressure. Historically, such capitulations often coincide with local or major bottoms, including January 2015, December 2018, and December 2022. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is below the estimated average production cost of $66,000, which last occurred in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed around $15,500.

The underlying public chain BOT Chain, designed for large-scale Web3 applications, announces the official launch of its mainnet. Through a three-layer decoupled architecture, this chain standardizes functionalities such as DeFi, NFT, and AI Agent, allowing developers to avoid writing smart contracts from scratch, significantly improving development efficiency.In terms of technological innovation, BOT Chain has introduced the AIDID native identity protocol, granting AI agents on-chain accounts and credit; it also pioneers a dual mining mechanism combining PoS staking and DePIN hardware contributions, allowing validation nodes to receive dual rewards, deeply binding network security with real computing power.The public chain has completed a $15 million strategic financing round led by institutions such as the NIX Foundation, Alpha Capital, and Gemhead Capital, and has passed a security audit by CertiK. BOT Chain's chief architect Alexander Ververis stated, "Our goal is not to create a 'faster and cheaper' chain, but to enable millions of developers to innovate easily, allow AI agents to become on-chain residents, and let value return to real growth on the network."

Vitalik Buterin expressed support for the AI company Anthropic in adhering to two ethical principles: "not developing fully autonomous weapons" and "not engaging in large-scale surveillance for the U.S." He praised their determination in the face of government pressure. Vitalik believes that in an ideal world, such high-risk applications should only be accessible at the level of open-source LLMs (i.e., a level where everyone can access it equally); even achieving just 10% progress could reduce the risks of autonomous weapons and privacy violations, promoting safer AI development.Previously, it was reported that the Pentagon recently threatened to cut ties with Anthropic, which could lead to a loss of a $200 million contract, because Anthropic refused to provide AI technology for military use without human intervention.

OpenMind and Circle have officially announced a strategic partnership to jointly launch the world's first payment infrastructure specifically designed for autonomous intelligent agents and real-world embodied AI. By deeply integrating Circle's USDC stablecoin with OpenMind's x402 protocol module, this collaboration enables robots and AI entities to achieve direct and autonomous payments for energy, services, and data in the physical world.Based on the collaboration between OpenMind and Circle, the FABRIC Foundation will accelerate the implementation and large-scale deployment from two main directions: Robot Birthplace and Acceleration of Adoption.The payment infrastructure provided by OpenMind + Circle offers machines an "economic brain," while the FABRIC Foundation is responsible for the entire closed-loop chain of "birth, production, operation, and evolution." The synergy among these three will jointly give rise to a true machine economy era—where robots are no longer mere tools, but independent economic entities with autonomous perception, decision-making, action, and payment capabilities. In the coming months, more real-world deployment cases (such as automatic charging stations) are worth continuous attention.

Binance will launch the ADA/U, DOGE/U, PEPE/U, and TAO/USD1 spot trading pairs on February 25, 2026, at 16:00, and will open trading bot services for these pairs.During the event, the ADA/U, DOGE/U, and PEPE/U spot and leveraged trading pairs will enjoy zero Maker fees, with the specific event period running from February 25, 2026, at 16:00 until further notice.

According to Gate market data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 821.91 points on February 23 (Monday), a decrease of 1.66%, at 48,804.06 points; the S&P 500 closed down 71.76 points, a decrease of 1.04%, at 6,837.75 points; the Nasdaq Composite closed down 258.8 points, a decrease of 1.13%, at 22,627.27 points.

CryptoQuant's analysis on platform X indicates that USDT is currently under extreme liquidity pressure, similar to the market bottom period in 2022. Meanwhile, the net inflow of stablecoins to exchanges has dropped from a peak of $616 million in November 2025 to $27 million, showing a weakening marginal buying power, and "the liquidity available for deployment in the crypto market is contracting."Additionally, predictive market data shows that traders are increasing their bets on further downside for Bitcoin. The probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has risen to 72%, with the total trading volume of related contracts reaching $1.2 billion. Furthermore, the probabilities of falling below $50,000 and $45,000 are 67% and 47%, respectively, with corresponding trading volumes of approximately $170,000 and $1.4 billion.

Cryptanalysis expert Murphy stated that analyzing on-chain data from both spatial and temporal dimensions, the current distance to the "bear bottom" is no longer far off. In terms of space, taking the previous cycle as an example, in June 2022, BTC dropped to a low of $17,000, which is not far from the ultimate absolute bottom price of $15,000, indicating that it is already in the "bear bottom" range spatially. However, it took a full 7 months to truly emerge from and complete the bottom reconstruction.Currently, the "space" is getting closer to the bear bottom, but there is still a considerable distance in terms of "time." It is crucial to observe the behavior of conviction-driven buyers (Conviction Buyers, hereinafter referred to as CB), who, as the smartest diamond hands in this market, often buy during declines and sell after increases. In other words, rather than saying they frequently buy at the bottom, it is more accurate to say that the bottom is often constructed by this group of buyers. As of February, conviction buyers have accumulated a holding of 3.48 million BTC, setting a new record for this cycle. Since January of this year, they have significantly increased their holdings by 1.22 million BTC, a figure that far exceeds the previous cycle's events during the 5.19 incident, LUNA crash, and FTX collapse. Moreover, the current BTC price is higher than the aforementioned time points, indicating that "smart decision-makers" are investing more funds at this time.Although the final bottom position is difficult to predict, for the CB group, they do not hope to go all-in at the lowest point; as long as there is sufficient cost-effectiveness, they will continue to buy until all excess supply is absorbed. When a balance is achieved on both the supply and demand sides, it forms the bottom range of the bear market, after which, through months of consensus reconstruction, a new trend will emerge. From historical data, the determination and strength currently exhibited by conviction-driven buyers fully meet the standard of "not far from the bear bottom."