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first_img Kerman Kohli: The bottleneck of computing power financing lies in credit

Cryptocurrency researcher Kerman Kohli published "Compute Financing" on Substack on October 19, 2026, discussing financing for computing power construction. He believes one of the main bottlenecks is capital, especially credit: early expenditures mainly come from balance sheet cash, followed by a shift to equity financing. The article cites Alphabet's $85 billion financing and Meta's fundraising through shareholder dilution, with the next step being the credit market.Kohli summarizes the current beliefs of creditors into three points, which he believes are incompatible: AI may be a bubble; the biggest risk is counterparty risk in purchase contracts; the underlying GPUs are not valuable and depreciate like ordinary hardware. He argues that demand is closer to infinite, stating that the demand for agentic AI is growing by about 2.5 to 5 times each year, with supply potentially doubling by the end of 2030. Memory is expected to sell out by 2027, with computing power commitments reaching trillions of dollars, and he mentions Jane Street's multi-billion dollar commitments, as well as the needs of pharmaceutical companies, research, military, and cybersecurity.Regarding efficiency, he states that when the cost of intelligence drops by 90%, the increase in usage is even greater, with a baseline exceeding 10 times, and he cites Jevons' Paradox.On the topic of purchasing, Kohli believes that computing power is more substitutable than real estate; when demand is strong, if someone withdraws their commitment, others will take over. He mentions that many creditors require 2 to 3 year contracts and down payments of 20% to 30%, sometimes as high as 50%, and locking in long-term discount contracts effectively shorts computing power for lenders. The article also states that computing power rental prices have risen by about 50% in the past 6 months and about 100% in the past year, with B300 supplies being tight. Regarding collateral, he notes that the A100 from 2020 is still operational and rented out until 2029, leading him to believe it has at least about 9 years of use value; the current price of B200 is about 50% higher than when it was released about two years ago, and a 6-year-old A100 is still worth about 25% of its value. He concludes that computing power will surpass real estate to become the largest asset class, and the scale of credit-supported computing power is currently just beginning.

first_img Sean Bowe: Justin Drake Quantum Early Warning Will Self-Undermine Credibility

Tachyon co-founder Sean Bowe posted on X, criticizing Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake's recent warnings about quantum threats. He stated that such vague alerts would cause harm on multiple levels and become self-harm for their quantum advocacy work.Sean Bowe stated: The threats from quantum and artificial intelligence are real, and industry teams are making prudent decisions on how to practically address risks and help users deal with uncertainty. Some teams have strong judgment from cryptographers, while others need to refer to trusted experts; due to the complex dimensions involved, the relevant trade-offs are almost impossible to explain to non-cryptographers, and experts should remain calm and take corresponding responsibility.He also mentioned that once the situation is clarified, people may find that this is at most an unintentional promotional move, resulting in a significant loss of trust, and no one knows how to proceed afterward. He believes that the judgment regarding the relevant direction is correct, that previous warnings were meaningful, but they have gradually turned into uncontrolled predictions lacking feedback constraints, which will long-term affect trust in reasonable concerns about classical cryptography. He pointed out that the other party admitted that there was no new information driving this and asked Justin Drake to explain why he thought this approach was correct.

first_img Animoca's NUVA launched the HOME token, opening the U.S. home equity credit market to non-U.S. investors

Animoca Brands and Nuva Labs have launched the real-world asset market NUVA with the HOME token, providing qualified non-U.S. investors exposure to U.S. home equity lines of credit (HELOC) with a minimum participation of 1 USDC. This ERC-20 token aims for an annualized yield of 7%, resetting monthly, with interest income and loan performance reflected in the net asset value of the fund pool, which in turn determines the token price. The product has no lock-up period and features a first-loss tranche that accounts for approximately 5% of the fund pool's value, designed to absorb losses from defaults or forced sales before they affect HOME holders.The underlying assets of HOME are the HELOC pools initiated by Figure Technology Solutions. According to Federal Reserve economic data, the size of U.S. HELOCs rose to $460 billion in the second quarter. Nuva Labs CEO Anthony Moro stated that traditional securitization primarily targets institutional investors, making it difficult for individual investors to access such structures. HOME does not attempt to create residential credit demand from scratch but presents an asset class with existing institutional demand in a more accessible on-chain structure. HOME holders do not directly own the underlying loans but hold tokens corresponding to the exposure of the fund pool.HOME is only available to qualified non-U.S. users, with the UK, Hong Kong, China, the British Virgin Islands, and sanctioned jurisdictions also excluded. NUVA will enforce these restrictions through wallet screening and IP address blocking.

Michael Saylor: Strategy and Strive, as Bitcoin treasury companies, are not in zero-sum competition and can jointly expand the digital credit market

Founder of Strategy Michael Saylor posted that he hopes Strive and all well-managed "Bitcoin-driven digital credit" issuers achieve success.Strategy is built on the same foundation as Strive: BTC belongs to digital capital, STRC and SATA belong to digital credit, and MSTR and ASST belong to digital equity. The securities structures and decisions of both parties are independent, although they will compete for individual capital allocations, they can also jointly expand long-term market opportunities.Saylor cited SIFMA data stating that by the end of 2025, the global stock market value will reach $157.8 trillion, and the fixed income debt balance will reach $160.7 trillion, with 0.1% of either market being approximately $160 billion.He proposed a threefold amplification mechanism: corporate financing to purchase supply-constrained Bitcoin can increase demand and improve the asset coverage of related companies; more issuers launching digital credit products can accumulate research, trading, and liquidity foundations, reducing the premium investors demand due to unfamiliarity, and potentially narrowing credit spreads and financing costs; more companies proving that this model can operate in different market environments may enhance market recognition of digital equity.He also emphasized that a single purchase does not guarantee Bitcoin appreciation, Bitcoin itself does not pay interest, and the profit margin between long-term asset returns and financing costs must be obtained through disciplined management; more issuers will not automatically lead to higher valuations.This model depends on a robust capital structure, prudent liquidity, transparent disclosure, and useful products. Weak issuers may undermine confidence in the entire category, while more credible issuers can meet institutional diversification investment needs and attract funds that would not otherwise enter the category.

The Inner Mongolia police in China are investigating a virtual currency money laundering case that used "free credit card repayment" as bait, involving nearly a thousand accounts

Recently, the police in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, China, investigated a virtual currency money laundering case. The criminal gang used "free credit card repayment" as bait to attract ordinary users to provide accounts. They received illicit funds from overseas gambling and fraud through false consumption, then contacted currency dealers to exchange for virtual currency and transferred it to designated addresses abroad. Through financial and on-chain data analysis, the police identified nearly a thousand involved accounts, with suspects distributed across Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei, Chongqing, and other regions.The Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China stated that it is currently using large model technology to analyze the flow of funds in virtual currency transactions, restore the gang's trading patterns, and uncover clues related to illegal industries. Upon investigation, it was confirmed that seven members of the gang were illegally engaged in payment settlement business without approval from relevant national authorities, constituting the crime of illegal operation, and were sentenced to imprisonment ranging from one year and two months to two years and six months, along with fines.Using virtual currency for money laundering is a new type of money laundering crime that has emerged in recent years. Lv Wei, the president of the Inner Mongolia branch of the People's Bank of China, stated that enhancing the monitoring and identification capabilities for abnormal fund transactions related to virtual currency trading has helped successfully crack down on a major money laundering case involving virtual currency pyramid schemes, dismantling more than ten money laundering and points-running dens, and confiscating illegal gains of approximately 130 million yuan. In recent years, there have been coordinated efforts to promote the conviction and sentencing of four cases involving money laundering using virtual currency, forming a strong deterrent against illegal activities such as money laundering with virtual currency.

Michael Saylor elaborates on the strategy of digital credit strategy: MSTR focuses on maximizing returns, while STRC emphasizes stable income

Founder of Strategy, Michael Saylor, stated in a post that Bitcoin is digital capital, MSTR is digital equity, and STRC is digital credit.The company's corporate strategy is to create two complementary products from Bitcoin capital: MSTR provides leveraged Bitcoin exposure and holds ownership of a growing digital credit business; STRC aims to reduce volatility, compress duration, and provide dollar returns. Creating digital credit requires active management of the entire balance sheet, including Bitcoin, dollars, debt, preferred stock, and common stock, involving multiple decisions regarding capital, liquidity, priority, dividend rates, payment frequency, and investor terms.The company's goal is to create the highest quality digital credit products: supported by financial resilience, disciplined capital allocation, and a more stable investor experience to provide attractive dollar returns. Dividends are visible outputs, but the quality of the underlying system is the core work.The company engineers products by managing capital, debt, and liquidity. Investors seeking Bitcoin price exposure can directly hold BTC or spot Bitcoin funds; meanwhile, MSTR investors buy equity in a company that simultaneously seeks Bitcoin leveraged exposure and digital credit business growth, accepting amplified volatility and downside risk. STRC investors pursue a different experience: dollar returns, reduced price volatility, and shorter duration characteristics, relying on the company's capital strength, priority debt position, dollar liquidity, and active management to achieve this.The two are interconnected—capital structure directs more volatility and return potential of Bitcoin towards common stock, thereby providing credit investors with more stable income claims. The company manages the balance sheet uniformly, creating leveraged exposure for equity investors and dampened exposure for credit investors, both relying on the company's strength and execution quality.To achieve this goal, Strategy continuously manages various levels of the capital structure, including issuing and repurchasing STRC, distinguishing between payment reserves and allocated cash, adjusting dividend rates, optimizing security terms, and seeking shorter durations and longer payment runways.The company emphasizes that digital credit is a discipline that requires continuous practice: stripping volatility, compressing duration, and extracting returns from Bitcoin capital. Bitcoin itself does not pay interest, and Strategy pays dividends through security terms. The ultimate goal is to build stronger digital credit and create greater long-term value for MSTR shareholders, reinforcing the quality of capital and equity value.
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