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first_img Standard Chartered Bank has postponed its prediction for the $20 trillion stablecoin market to 2030

According to a report by The Block, Standard Chartered Bank has postponed its prediction for the stablecoin market to reach a scale of $2 trillion from 2028 to 2030. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital asset research, stated that the $2 trillion scale estimate remains unchanged, but he believes the market will need an additional two years to reach it. Over the past 12 months, the supply of stablecoins has remained in the range of $300 billion to $320 billion, currently around $309 billion. Kendrick believes this slowdown is cyclical rather than structural, as it occurs during a period of weak activity in the cryptocurrency market.Kendrick pointed out that despite the stagnation in supply growth, the use and trading activity of stablecoins continue to rise. The on-chain original transfer amount set a monthly record of $19 trillion in May, with an average monthly scale of nearly $10 trillion this year, higher than the $4 trillion expected in 2025.The monthly average circulation velocity, which measures the number of times each dollar of stablecoin is transferred, has doubled this year to about 30 times, compared to 15 times in 2025, with USDT maintaining around 7 times, while USDC has increased from 45 times to about 80 times. Kendrick stated that the differences stem from different uses, with USDT primarily used for dollar savings in emerging markets, while USDC is more used for payments, financial transactions, and early payments between AI agents.Kendrick expects that competition in stablecoin payments and trading in developed markets will be the most intense, with potential challengers including Open USD, stablecoin infrastructure provider M^0, and the A+ network, which plans to allow banks to issue shared stablecoins and retain reserve earnings.

first_img Author of "The Bitcoin Standard": Bitcoin will fluctuate less than gold and have a larger scale

In a post on platform X, Saifedean Ammous, the author of the 2018 academic work "The Bitcoin Standard," stated that Bitcoin already possesses monetary functions. Holding Bitcoin is equivalent to using Bitcoin as currency. Its limited use as a payment method does not prove that its monetization process will not continue to advance. He believes that as Bitcoin matures, its volatility will be lower than that of gold, and its market capitalization will surpass that of this largest precious metal globally.Ammous's viewpoint is a response to the relevant discussions in the work "Better Money: Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin?" by American economist Lawrence H. White. White cited content from Chapter 6 of that book on platform X, stating that Bitcoin's supply is fixed and cannot respond to changes in demand, resulting in excessive price volatility, making it difficult to become the reliable medium of exchange that people need. This is also the reason why stablecoins have surpassed Bitcoin in trading volume.Similar judgments have been made in the industry previously. In May 2025, André Dragosch, the European research director at Bitwise, told Cointelegraph that their internal forecast predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2029, at which point its market capitalization could be comparable to gold. However, Bitcoin's current market capitalization of approximately $1.6 trillion needs to grow at least 18 times to exceed gold's nearly $29 trillion market capitalization and become the largest asset in the world.
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